Daily Crypto Update 30.07.2018 - Consolidation Before A Breakout (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin Price Analysis)

In today's crypto update I will be discussing the potential direction of the expected breakout, and the reasons I believe the direction is down.

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General overview

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• Market Cap: $293,468,610,906
• 24h Vol: $13,964,438,115
• BTC Dominance: 47.7%

From yesterday's high at 299,774,000,000$, the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by 6,3 billion as its currently sitting at around $293,4B. As you can see from the global chart the evaluation is narrowing down in a triangle like pattern. This consolidative structure has formed as the evaluation failed to break the $300B mark, and from the current level, I would expect the evaluation to go further down to the triangle's support around $290B. If that level holds than another attempt at the breakout on the upside can be a possibility, but a breakout from the downside is more likely to $284B level.

Following the 6,3 billion dollar decline, the market is currently in red but with a small average percentage of change among top 100 coins ranging from 1-5%. The biggest loser is Mithil which decreased by 17% in the last 24 hours.

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News

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In the last 24 hours, the most significant headlines are those that can fit into the adoption category.

First by its adoption magnitude is the news story of Iran's plan on creating a state-back cryptocurrency in the midst of the announced U.S. sanctions that will take effect in August. As reported by the Iranian media, a senior official within the government says that the currency could be developed in the next three months. This measure against the sanctions is definitely constructed with Venezuela's example in mind, as they have developed their cryptocurrency 'petro' to surpass the imposed U.S. sanctions in 2017.

The second headline that caught my attention as I viewed it as significant is that Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) successfully, facilitated a shipment of 17 tonnes of almonds from Australia to Germany and in that process tested their supply management system based on the Ethereum blockchain according to a press-release on Monday. Chris Scougall, managing director of industrials and logistics in client coverage at CBA, said in a press release:

“We believe that blockchain can help our partners reduce the burden of administration on their businesses and enable them to deliver best-in-class services to their customers.”

CBA facilitated all three key services in this type of trade deals–shipment operations, documentation, and finance issues - by using the cryptocurrency technology.

The third headline by its significance in the adoption category is that Nasdaq discussed with Gemini and other crypto exchange representatives the future trends in regulation and the ways those exchanges can be in line with them as a way to improve the image of the cryptocurrency market in general, a source familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. This interest and reaching out seen by Nasdaq to the cryptocurrency exchanges certainly isn't because they want to help other exchanges. It looks like they want to take advantage of the cryptocurrency market potential when it's still an evolving market and push it to the mainstream providing more legality and in the end maintaining their position as the operator of one of the worlds largest exchanges.

In April, Bloomberg reported that "Gemini partnered with Nasdaq to use its advanced surveillance system to prevent and control market manipulations." and they have confirmed last week that they are offering their technological solution to SBI Virtual Currencies and three other cryptocurrency exchanges that were not disclosed.

This is very important especially when the Winklevoss brothers, Bitcoin Trust application for an ETF was declined again with an explanation that The Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't find the product safe enough for investors. The SEC said that it cannot "conclude that bitcoin markets are uniquely resistant to manipulation."

So potentially is Nasdaq provides the solution to that problem with their surveillance technology that can provide more certainty for the SEC to approve a Bitcoin ETF soon.

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Analysis

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BTC/USD

From yesterday's open which is also yesterday's high at 8276$ the price of Bitcoin has decreased by 1,84% as its currently trading at 8128$.

As it can be seen on the hourly chart, the price action has formed a descending triangle and is currently interacting with its support levels. Descending triangle pattern usually breaks from the downside and that already happened on Friday but the price action found itself back in it again, which means that buyers are there. This triangle pattern is similar to that on the global chart, so I would expect a breakout soon. This pattern could be interpreted as a bull flag buy investors and traders and they might act accordingly - buying at support, which would result in a breakout to the upside. However, that is highly unlikely.

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Market sentiment

Hourly chart technicals support the bearish scenario as they signal a sell.

Oscillators are signaling a sell, and moving averages a strong one.

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Pivot points

S3 7838.5 
S2 8028.8 
S1 8124.9 
P 8219.1 
R1 8315.2
R2 8409.4 
R3 8599.7

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ETH/USD

From yesterday's open and high at 471,3$ the price of Ethereum has decreased by 3,65% as its currently trading at 453$.

Looking at the hourly chart we can see that the price of Ethereum has broken out off of the ascending channel on the downside and judging by the size of that red candle it isn't an interaction with the support that will result as a wick on the higher time-frame like it did prior three times. As I think Ethereum is lagging behind Bitcoin, and it didn't retest the prior low on the daily chart, this breakout is going to push the price of Ethereum significantly down in the upcoming period - if the breakout doesn't end like a fakeout that is.

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Market sentiment

Ethreum's hourly chart technicals signal a sell.

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Pivot points

S3 444.41 
S2 455.61 
S1 461.04 
P 466.82 
R1 472.25 
R2 478.03 
R3 489.24

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XRP/USD

From yesterday's open at 0,454$ the price of Ripple has decreased by 2,5% and is currently trading at 0,442$.

On the hourly chart we can see that the price of Ripple is in a similar position like the price of Ethereum - its on the support levels of the ascending channel, but unlike the Ethereum, Ripple's price is just starting to interact with it. As the price struggled to exceed the 0,453$ level where 0 Fibonacci retracement level is this decline is the logical progression of the price pathway. If we have in mind the global chart, the Bitcoin chart and the Ethereum's potential breakout, we can say that a breakout on the downside should be expected.

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Market sentiment

Hourly chart technical indicators are signaling a sell.

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Pivot points

S3 0.43719 
S2 0.44567
S1 0.44939
P 0.45415 
R1 0.45787
R2 0.46263 
R3 0.47111

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LTC/USD

From yesterday's open at 85,118$ the price of Litecoin has decreased by 5,27% as its currently sitting at 80,786$.

On the hourly chart, we can see that yesterday's open was on the triangles resistance line which again rejected the price and has sent it on a downward trajectory. The price is currently sitting on the minor range support, but I am expecting it to continue going down to the ascending channels support at around 78,111$.

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Market sentiment

Like in the case of other cryptos, Litecoin's hourly chart technical indicators are signaling a sell.

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Pivot points

S3 80.043 
S2 82.184 
S1 83.130 
P 84.325 
R1 85.271 
R2 86.466 
R3 88.607

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Conclusion

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As the prices of four major cryptocurrencies are interacting with their minor support levels, and Ethereum is showing early stages of a breakout, more downside is expected in the upcoming period for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin's chart is similar to that of global pattern wise, and this doesn't come as a surprise as Bitcoin's dominance has increased to 47,7%. On the global chart, we have seen an attempt to break the $300B mark, after which the market is consolidating. After the consolidation, a breakout on the downside is most likely, but it is also possible that buyers make another attempt at breaking that level. If that happens, and I hope it does the prices will go further up but not that further as sellers are just waiting for a better price to dump their holdings.

I hope this happens as it would be a healthy move for the market thus making further projections more accurate. This would result in dumb money getting dumped on which would cause them to give up buying and those who are willing to sell are going to push the prices down where they should have gone.