An 8.5-Tonne Chinese Space Station is expected to crash and Kuala Lumpur is a potential crash zone

So I think I better pack and move my entire family out of Kuala Lumpur. Several news agencies reported that debris from China’s de-orbiting space station Tiangong-1, an 8.5 tonne truck-sized space station is flying out of control on a collision course with Earth and it could come crashing down almost anytime between January to March 2018.

Tiangong-1

Reports say that Kuala Lumpur lies smack in the space station’s orbital trajectory and is a potential crash zone as it enters into its fiery final plunge through the Earth’s atmosphere.

Image Source: TV3

Tiangong-1 was the first prototype orbiting unmanned space station launched by China’s National Space Administration (CNSA) from its launch complex in Jiuquan, Gansu Province to space in September 2011, and successfully completed its mission in March 2016. It has been unmanned since 2013. The station was designed to be a test-bed for robotic technologies, and it has seen multiple vehicle rendezvous, dockings, and taikonaut visits during its operational lifetime. The activity lays the groundwork for a more permanent space station the Chinese plan to launch in the near future.

A Long March 2F rocket carrying the first module of the Tiangong-1 space station lifts off from a site in China on September 29, 2011. PHOTOGRAPH BY LINTAO ZHANG, GETTY

On May 4, 2017, Chinese officials released a report to the United Nations that Tiangong-1 had ceased operating back on March 16, 2016. It was meant to re-enter the atmosphere in 2017, but the space station became out of control due to technical and mechanical problems.

China’s manned space agency’s deputy director Wu Ping confirmed that Tiangong-1 will re-enter the atmosphere. He said while the bulk of the space station would burn up during re-entry, some components that were built to withstand extremes in temperature might survive the plunge. “During re-entry, a huge chunk of the space station will most likely disintegrate,” he was quoted in a report. Chinese officials have been working with other international space agencies and will release a forecast of the projected impact points, if possible.

However, reports quoting Harvard astrophysicists Jonathan McDowell said, there was no way to positively determine the exact impact points and timing, “We will only be aware of the landing time six or seven hours before it actually happens. “This also means that we cannot pinpoint the exact impact zones,” he was quoted as saying. McDowell said components that survived the descent could weigh as much as 100kg. Damage caused by components at that mass and velocity could be considerable.

Image Source: TV3

There have been many uncontrolled re-entries of larger spacecraft and none have ever been reported to have caused injuries to people.

In 1991 the Soviet Union’s 20-tonne Salyut 7 space station crashed to Earth while still docked to another 20-tonne spacecraft called Cosmos 1686. They broke up over Argentina, scattering debris over the town of Capitán Bermúdez.

Nasa’s enormous 77-tonne Skylab space station came hurtling to Earth in an almost completely uncontrolled descent in 1979, with some large pieces landing outside Perth in Western Australia.

Nevertheless, for your own safety, always keep an eye out on the sky in case something comes falling out from the sky.

News Sources

• November 15 - TV3 News
• November 15: China's space station crashing to earth | New Straits Times | Malaysia
  https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/11/303355/chinas-space-station-crashing-earth
• November 13: A Space Station Is Crashing To Earth, And Kuala Lumpur Might Be Hit | Malaysian Digest | Malaysia
  http://malaysiandigest.com/features/707588-a-space-station-is-crashing-to-earth-and-kuala-lumpur-might-be-hit.html
• October 20: A Chinese space station could crash to Earth anytime between now and April 2018. Here’s how to see it with your own eyes | National Geographic | US
  https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/10/see-china-tiangong-space-station-crash-earth-science/
• October 14: Tiangong-1: Chinese space station will crash to Earth within months | The Guardian
  https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/13/tiangong-1-chinese-space-station-will-crash-to-earth-within-months