Can Trailer Views in the First 24 Hours Really Predict Box Office Numbers?

The teaser trailer for Thor: Ragnarok had 136 million views according to Wikipedia and is number 3 on the list of most viewed trailers in the first 24 hours. IT is still the most viewed trailer in the first 24 hours with 197 million views and $677 million dollars at the box office. Its audience is limited by the fact that it’s an R-Rated movie and it’s a horror movie – not everyone’s cup of tea. The second most viewed trailer of all times is The Fate of the Furious with 139 million views. A lot less views than IT, but it did make $1.2 billion dollars, a lot more than IT. Right after Thor: Ragnarok is Beauty and the Beast with 127.6 million views and like The Fate of the Furious it too made $1.2 billion dollars, although it did come up on with a margin of $27 million dollars.

Thor: Ragnarok which opened worldwide two weeks ago, but has reached the U.S. this weekend is already at $431,129,660. With excellent word of mouth, one of the highest rotten tomatoes score for a comic book movie, and a low second weekend drop in the rest of the world, it seems almost certain that Thor: Ragnarok will join Beauty and the Beast and The Fate of the Furious in the billion dollar club. It made big money in China and even India. The money and praise for Thor: Ragnarok just keeps rolling in.

This is great news for Star Wars: The Last Jedi with 120.1 views, almost as much as Beauty and the Beast.

This scale didn’t work for Fifty Shades Darker with 114.0 views, but that is a rare case. Most people who watched the previous movie, Fifty Shades of Grey did not like it as the movie had a C+ cinema score. And Fifty Shades Darker had 10% score on rotten tomatoes, even worse than the previous movie. Enough to keep most viewers away from the sequel. Plus, the trailer itself was not good, doing the movie a disservice despite the many views.

This is bad news for Black Panther which didn’t make the top 10 of most viewed trailers in the first 24 hours with just 89 million views, enough for number 11. Although it is in between the official teaser for Beauty and the Beast and the second teaser trailer for Star Wars: The Force Awakens, those are just teasers, and the official trailers had a much higher number of views. Considering that it is a standalone movie, with no help from any other Avenger (Thor has the Hulk to help him out). It might do standard standalone Marvel origin movie numbers, anywhere between Ant-Man’s $519 million and Dr. Strange’s $677 million. Or could surprise us all with Wonder Woman numbers ($821 million). But, these are not the same numbers as most of the top 10 of most viewed trailers in the first 24 hours which is a shame. This movie needs a strong publicity push from Marvel to make sure that it will do well.

For now, it seems that the top 10 of most viewed trailers in the first 24 hours is a great new way to predict box office numbers.

Source image: all posters are taken from IMDB

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