2019 Oscar Predictions

These are my predictions and prognostications for the Oscars. I will give you my opinion on who should win as well as the pick I think will win based on past voting habits of the Academy members. Enjoy.

Best Picture

Black Panther

I am not sure why Black Panther made the list here. It was a decent Marvel film, but a bit choppy. This was really a surprise that was probably more about politics than cinematic qualities. Great character, but the film was only decent. This film has little chance of winning. I gave this film a 7.5/10.

BlacKKKLansman

BlacKKKlansman is another film that I felt was a political choice. The film was strong until the message was muddled with Spike Lee's political statement at the end. It ruined the film for me. I thought Lee stretched too far attempting to tie an interesting historically based story to Donald Trump. And the upside down flag at the end was a slap in the face to veterans. This film is everything Hollywood loves. I gave the film 5/10.

Bohemian Rhapsody

I liked the Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody but didn't think Rami was that great. He has a great chance of winning Best Actor because he had prosthetic teeth. Dumb. However, I love Queen and the music of Queen featured in this film. I loved the story and gave this film an 8.5/10.

The Favourite

I enjoyed The Favourite. This is also the type of film that the Academy voters like. It was almost built for the Oscars. However, it felt a bit incomplete at the end. That was my biggest complaint. I gave this film 7.5/10.

Green Book

I liked Green Book as well. This is another film that has everything that Hollywood seems to like. However, there was some controversy about the lead actor's choice of words during an interview. This film was complete. It had comedy, great characters and an interesting story. I forgot to give this film a rating, but I would put it at 8/10 now.

Roma

I don't have Netflix and didn't catch Roma during its very brief visit to theaters. This film has had the most exposure and Netflix has been pushing it hard. It is also black-and-white, which Academy voters love. I am not sure what they will do here. I think this was another political pick, particularly for a film that is also in the best foreign film category.

A Star Is Born

I was pleasantly surprised by A Star Is Born. The film has been made four times over the past century. It seems every couple of decades this film gets dusted off. This was a nice revision. I'm not sure it will win, but it was well done. I gave this film 8/10.

Vice

Vice is obviously a political choice. This was a sweetheart kiss to the left. The left believes Cheney is the devil and he was the brains behind a puppet president. I don't believe it. I chose not to see this film because I knew it was a hit piece. This is a typical hollywood echo chamber film. It has a chance to win for that reason alone. Although I have to admit that Christian Bale looked amazing in the role.

Who Should Win - I gave Bohemian Rhapsody the highest rating out of all these films. I liked it just about equally with Green Book, although the soundtrack gives the former a slight edge in my personal preferences. Having said that, Green Book was the best film of the nominees. It should win.

Who Will Win - I think Roma may win. There is so much hype around this film it is insane. The Academy loves black-and-white films as well. I only like them when it makes sense for them to be black-and-white. Films like The Artist. I didn't see this film, so it is unfair for me to really knock it. But I doubt it is as good as the buzz suggests.

Dark Horse - The Favourite. Three films in this list are social justice warrior wet dreams. However, The Favourite was far better than those other films and had some social justice elements. Plus, the performances and costumes in this film were exceptional. Plenty of nominations could add up to a long shot Best Picture win.

Lead Actor

Christian Bale in Vice

Christian Bale really looked the part in this film. I didn't see it, but this would be an opportunity for Hollywood to make a political statement in a way that makes sense. Bale is a great actor and likely nailed this performance.

Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born

If I had to pick between Cooper in A Star Is Born and Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, I would go with Cooper. However, my pick for best actor this year didn't make the list. Zain Al Rafeea delivered one of the most gripping performances by an adolescent that I can recall in recent history. I really can't think of one better. But Cooper was great in this film.

Willem Dafoe in At Eternity's Gate

At Eternity's Gate is another of the few films I missed this year. I love Dafoe. I felt he should have won last year for The Florida Project. Maybe he will get a "make up call" this year. I wish I hadn't missed this one.

Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody

I am not a big fan of Malek. He was horrible in Papillon. He was solid in Bohemian Rhapsody. But I really don't get his previous wins for this performance. He is probably the favorite here.

Viggo Mortensen in Green Book

Mortensen was great. However, those comments probably come back to bite him here. I think he gets snubbed, even though his was the best performance of this lot. He should win. He won't. But I think they may give Green Book the nod and just snub him instead.

Who Will Win - Rami Malek. He has already won. I don't understand why. But I don't think he loses. In spite of what I thought was a mediocre performance.

Who Should Win - Zain Al Rafeea. But alas, he was not nominated.

Dark Horse - Christian Bale. Hollywood has an opportunity to score political points and might just do it.

Lead Actress

Yalitza Aparicio in Roma

I didn't see this film. It has gotten a lot of buzz. I am sure the lead actress had a lot to do with it. I wouldn't count her out.

Glenn Close in The Wife

I saw The Wife but apparently didn't review it. That seems odd. I was sure I reviewed that one. It was a decent film. Of course, it was better because of Glenn Close. She was great. Rock solid. She has a real shot here.

Olivia Colman in The Favourite

I thought Colman was awesome. I loved her performance. She would definitely have made my list of contenders in this category.

Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born

I really enjoyed the chemistry between Cooper and Lady Gaga in this film. It helped make the film work. Lady Gaga seemed a bit off at times, but I really thought she did a great job. Not perfect, not enough for the win, but excellent.

Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me

It was interesting to see Melissa McCarthy in a serious role. However, I am not certain her performance was Oscar-worthy. This is another film I saw but apparently forgot to review.

Who Will Win - Glenn Close. She was awesome. She should win.

Dark Horse - Olivia Colman. She was painstakingly good in The Favourite.

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali in Green Book

It seems that Ali is in everything these days. Almost to the point of over-exposure. Probably because he is a great actor. His performance in this film was excellent. He has a great chance to win. Again.

Adam Driver in Blackkklansman

The way Spike Lee chose to end this film drove me nuts. He ruined the film. But that didn't tarnish Driver's performance. He was solid. I like him anyway. He has had some strong performances. He deserves a nomination. I don't think he was strong enough to win, though.

Sam Elliott in A Star Is Born

Who doesn't like Sam Elliott? He may be a bit typecast, but he delivers his typography with precision. He has a great chance to win.

Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Hollywood apparently loved this film. It was a good story, but not that exceptional. I liked Richard E. Grant's performance. However, I wouldn't give him an award for it.

Sam Rockwell in Vice

Sam Rockwell as a bumbling George Bush? I don't know that Hollywood voters can contain themselves. That is almost enough for the nod right there. Rockwell looked great in the role. However, he won last year. They may want to spread the love around. I didn't see this film, so I can't justify a win one way or the other.

Who Will Win - It has been two years since Ali won last. That may give him the edge over Rockwell.

Who Should Win - My vote would go to Sam Elliott. But I am okay with Ali winning. These were the two who deserved it most.

Dark Horse - Richard E. Grant. Forgive Me received a couple of nominations. Hollywood seemed to love it. They may want to use this opportunity to recognize that film.

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams in Vice

Vice had a great cast. I love Amy Adams anyway. I do have to wonder how many of these nominations were tied to the subject matter rather than quality. Although I would give Amy Adams an award just for being Amy Adams. I love that actress.

Marina de Tavira in Roma

I am not sure why Hollywood is so enthralled with Roma. Other than the film is black-and-white. It is getting far more nominations than the typical foreign film. That's good. I love foreign films. I didn't see this film, so I wonder how deserved it is. I guess I will have to catch this one at some point.

Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk

This was another film I didn't see this year. The Supporting Actress category has the most nominees I haven't seen apparently. Although the last two come from the same film, which I did manage to see. Can't really weigh in on King's performance other than the trailers. She did look great in the trailers.

Emma Stone in The Favourite

The dynamics between Emma Stone, Olivia Colman and Rachel Weisza in this film were exceptional. They seemed to draw out the best in each other. This is going to be a tough category to choose from. Just from the two I have seen.

Rachel Weisz in The Favourite

Another great performance from this period piece. She could certainly win.

Who Will Win - Regina King. I haven't seen the film, but she is getting a lot of buzz. Plus, diversity. Not suggesting that diversity alone is why she should/could win. But it does have a lot to do with how Hollywood selects and votes. I can't honestly weigh in because I didn't see the film.

Who Should Win - Emma Stone. Her performance elevated The Favourite.

Dark Horse - Rachel Weisz. For the same reason. Both were remarkable.

Director

Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman - Spike Lee ruined the film when he muddled his own message with Charlottesville. He probably thought it was "timely." But he insulted half of America in the process. Not cool. He might win just because Hollywood hates middle America so much.

Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War - I really liked this film. It looked good in black-and-white, which made sense for the era it was depicting. It had a great look and an interested star-crossed-lovers story. This film won't win best foreign film. But Pawlikowski stands a chance for Best Director.

Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite - Strong female leads have been a theme in Hollywood in recent years. This film had three strong female characters, which is bound to draw some votes. The film was great, although I would have liked a tidier ending. Yorgos stands a chance to win here.

Alfonso Cuarón for Roma - Continuing the theme of Hollywood's romance with Roma, we have another nomination. Another black-and-white film, no less. With all of the nominations, this certainly stands a strong chance.

Adam McKay for Vice - I didn't see the film. I am not surprised that it has so many nominations based on the subject matter. Probably not a winner, though.

Who Will Win - Alfonso Cuaron. I really have to see this film. Hollywood has lost their minds over it. I find it hard to believe it could be better than Capernaum which didn't receive any nominations beyond Best Foreign Film. But such is life. This film is black-and-white, foreign and has had plenty of exposure.

Who Should Win - Nadine Labaki for Capernaum. Hollywood had an opportunity to nominate a female director for an amazing film and missed the boat. What a waste. Labaki was not even nominated. I think Hollywood tries so hard to be diverse that they miss the real opportunities to achieve it. This was a miss.

Dark Horse - This one is hard to gauge. Spike Lee would be the social justice choice. McKay would be the political choice. They may divide votes. The Favourite was also a film that Hollywood embraced. So I am going to go with Yorgos Lanthimos as my dark horse.

Animated Feature

Incredibles 2 - I loved this film. I gave it 7.5/10. It was a sequel that was too long in coming.

Isle of Dogs - who wouldn't love a film whose homophone is "I love dogs?" Great movie. A smidgen below Incredibles 2 on my scale. But far more unique. I also gave this film 7.5/10.

Mirai - I did not see this film. It may not have enough exposure to Oscar voters to win.

Ralph Breaks the Internet - This film was in theaters for a surprisingly long time. I didn't see it. There were too many other films that actually looked good to me. But something kept this film in theaters. If it wasn't selling, it wouldn't have stayed.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - This was my favorite animated film of 2018. The graphics and textures were amazing. A breakthrough in visual appeal. I gave this film 8/10. I can't wait for the sequel.

Who Will Win - Spider-Man of course. What a great film! It deserves the win here.

Who Should Win - Spider-Man.

Dark Horse - Isle of Dogs, which also featured some interesting animation.

Animated Shorts

I reviewed all of the Animated Shorts two weeks ago. You can see my in-depth analysis by clicking through.

Animal Behaviour - An odd film from Canada. Not my cup of tea. 6/10.

Bao - The best film of the lot. I first saw it with Incredibles 2. Amazing short film. 9/10

Late Afternoon - Touching film with interesting animation. 7.5/10

One Small Step - Another film with everything I love to see in cinema. 8/10.

Weekends - A bit slow and a bit too long. 6.5/10.

Who Will Win - Bao. This was the best film of the lost.

Who Should Win - Bao. For the same reason.

Dark Horse - One Small Step. It was one small step behind Bao on all counts. But great film overall.

Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - I didn't see this film.

BlacKkKlansman - Was good until the ending ruined the entire film.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? - Interesting film, but is it an Oscar-worthy story?

If Beale Street Could Talk - I didn't see this film.

A Star Is Born - A fresh new take on a film that has been done many times.

Who Will Win - Blackkklansman gets the consolation prize for not winning Best Picture.

Who Should Win - A Star Is Born. Does this story ever get old? Nice fresh take on it.

Dark Horse - Can You Ever Forgive Me? Hollywood is enamored by this film. Don't count it out.

Original Screenplay

The Favourite - Definitely a strong contender. And based on a true story. Strong female characters may take this one across the finish line.

First Reformed - I gave this film 7/10. It was intriguing, but slow.

Green Book - Great film. The best of this lot.

Roma - Roma was nominated in every category Hollywood could think of. I guess I should have seen it.

Vice - Original...but accurate? I think half the country would say "no."

Who Will Win - The Favourite. Strong female characters, period piece, great performances. Everything Hollywood loves. But not the best screenplay. The ending felt incomplete.

Who Should Win - Green Book. It was a complete film. It was excellent. It used a soft hand to address sensitive issues. It could have been full blown social justice warrior, but opted for compelling drama instead.

Dark Horse - Green Book. I liked this film and think it might edge out The Favourite.

Cinematography

Cold War - A black-and-white film will probably win this category. But not this one.

The Favourite - Great cinematography, but probably more a "costume" winner than cinematography.

Never Look Away - I didn't see this film.

Roma - Black-and-white does well in this category. Roma for the win.

A Star Is Born - This film has a better chance in original song than cinematography.

Who Will Win - Roma. Not even close.

Who Should Win - I didn't see Roman, but I have seen the trailer and images from the film. I think this film probably deserves the win.

Dark Horse - This may be an opportunity to recognize Cold War. Roma will likely win other categories.

Best Documentary

Free Solo - Great documentary. I gave this film 8/10. I saw it on the IMax screen. Amazing.

Hale County This Morning, This Evening - I didn't see this film.

Minding the Gap - I didn't see this film.

Of Fathers and Sons - I didn't see this film.

RBG- I chose not to see this film.

Who Will Win - Hollywood loves Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Passionately. RBG for the runaway win.

Who Should Win - I only saw Free Solo. I would give it a win, but I didn't see the others, so this is a bit biased.

Dark Horse - Free Solo. It was a great doc.

Documentary Short

I didn't get the chance to see the Documentary Shorts this year. It is the first year I have missed them. I will make my pick based on hype.

**Black Sheep

End Game

Lifeboat

A Night at the Garden

Period. End of Sentence.**

My Best Guess For Winner - Period. End of Sentence. is a play on words. This film is being pushed by Netflix, which has a lot of influence over voting. If I were dropping a ballot into a betting pool, that would be my pick.

Best Live Action Short

I reviewed all of the Live Action Shorts for in depth analysis. I will merely give my rating for these films and my picks.

“Detainment - 8/10

Fauve - 8/10

Marguerite - 7/10

Mother - 7.5/10

Skin - 6.5/10

Who Will Win - Skin. The worst of the lot, but likely to win the social justice warriors over. The film is heavy handed tripe. It had potential but whiffed with caricatures rather than reality.

Who Should Win - Fauve. It is a compelling story with deep imagery. In a field of dark films, this one was most balanced.

Dark Horse - Detainment. Brutal. But well constructed.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum (Lebanon) - My pick to win. Great film. This film should have been nominated for Best Actor and Best Director as well.

Cold War (Poland) - A solid film. Great cinematography, interesting story, but not quite as good as Capernaum.

Never Look Away (Germany) - I didn't see this film.

Roma (Mexico) - I didn't see this film.

Shoplifters (Japan) - I enjoyed this film. I thought it might have a chance to win before I saw Capernaum.

Who Will Win - Roma. Hollywood is in love. Netflix is promoting. No room for discussion.

Who Should Win - Capernaum. One of the most compelling films I have seen in recent memory.

Dark Horse - Cold War is another black-and-white film. It was a solid film. But I am going to choose Capernaum for my dark horse. I loved this film and feel like it could win.

Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman Barry Alexander Brown

Bohemian Rhapsody John Ottman

Green Book Patrick J. Don Vito

The Favourite Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Vice Hank Corwin

Who Will Win - Vice. A justified opportunity for Hollywood to love a political film.

Who Should Win - Bohemian Rhapsody. Great editing. And in the wake of the firing of Bryan Singer.

Dark Horse - Bohemian Rhapsody. Could pull off the upset.

Sound Editing

Black Panther Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker

Bohemian Rhapsody John Warhurst

First Man Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan

A Quiet Place Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl

Roma Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Who Will Win - Bohemian Rhapsody. Great music, great sound. Although this pick will be more about the music than the sounds.

Who Should Win - A Quiet Place. The film relied on great sound editing. It was an integral part of the film.

Dark Horse - An opportunity to give First Man a win. It also had great sound editing.

Sound Mixing

**Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

Who Will Win** - This comes down to the two films that are music-heavy. Bohemian Rhapsody edges out A Star Is Born. Barely.

Who Should Win - I could pick either of those films.

Dark Horse - A Star Is Born. It was a great remake. The music was awesome.

Production Design

Black Panther

First Man

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

Who Will Win** - The Favourite had great sets and really established the feel of the era.

Who Should Win - The Favourite.

Dark Horse - Black Panther. The highlight of this film was the production design.

Original Score

“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard

“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson

“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell

“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat

“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Who Will Win - Blackkklansman. A political choice.

Who Should Win - If Beale Street Could Talk.

Dark Horse - If Beale Street Could Talk.

Original Song

“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA

“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Who Will Win - Shallow. And I believe we will get to see it performed live. Great song.

Who Should Win - Shallow.

Dark Horse - All The Stars. A chance to give Black Panther a win.

Makeup and Hair

Border - I loved the look of this film. I am glad to see a nomination.

Mary Queen of Scots - Another solid film I enjoyed.

Vice - I have seen the images from this film. Probably a runaway win.

Who Will Win - It is hard to compete with the look of Vice. In a run away victory.

Who Should Win - I liked both the other films. But this one had great hair and makeup.

Dark Horse - Mary Queen of Scots. Also a great job in this category.

Costume Design

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres

“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter

“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell

“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell

“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

Who Will Win - The Favourite. It is going to be hard to compete.

Who Should Win - The Favourite, although I liked the costumes in Black Panther and Mary Queen of Scots as well.

Dark Horse - Black Panther.

Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

**First Man

Ready Player One**

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Who Will Win - First Man. I felt a part of the mission.

Who Should Win - Avengers. Seamless interaction of amazing elements. Visually stunning.

Dark Horse - Ready Player One. Another visually stimulating film.

I hope you have enjoyed reading. Follow my blog if you want to keep up with the best and worst of cinema in the coming year!