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RE: The Dollar Reserve Status is Deteriorating Right Under Everyone's Eyes...
I don’t think China there Economy is in shambles. They are just like U.S.S.R was in the 80’s and it will collapse. I think China in 2 -5 years will open the curtain and we will see how bad it is.
Now for the USD watch the money supply. Since the ‘16 Election the Fed has increased the money supply by 1 Trillion Dollars. There are Trillions more coming on the market. This will make each individual dollar weak but with a strong economy people worldwide will still run to us.
As far as crypto I am a huge believer but being used as a currency is really far out. 1st it will take over legal markets for contract execution. As that happens it will slowly spread as a currency (at least that will be the USA adoption cycle)
The money supply has been dcreasing steadily since march of 2017 when the federal reserve decided to trim the balance sheet and they have drastically trimme dit back to March of 2014 levels. This is what caused the emerging markets to get destroyed thi year and for other global economies to falter as well.
This was a mistake by the FED and wikll be costly. It is one thing to be raising rates which was fine it is another thing to be trimming the balance sheet as fast as they have been. The dollar as the global reserve as we know it is changing right now. The dollar is entering a secular bear and emerging markets and other economies are about to explode, one example is the Euro to 1.30+
I think you are reading a ton of FUD them shrinking the balance sheet doesn’t decrease the money supply. It puts the money they already printed into circulation.
They say they are shrinking the money supply but they are just pushing it out into the economy off their books.
They have done this before.
Euro 1.30 is nothing. EU is collapsing.
I agree their will be inflation due to more dollars entering the market but no one can challenge us as a reserve currency.
These are long multiple decade trends and this is a pattern we have seen before a ton of FUD around reserve currencies so big money can continue to control things.
I love your posts but on this I think your drinking the GOV / Wall Street / Fed Kool-aid
So, out of curiosity, are you saying this time it is different considering the past 5 global reserve currency powers?
Yes. We will stay the reserve currency until it doesn’t matter anymore.
I actually see a near future of the collapse of nation states and back to city-states or Corp-states.
Large population and food supply trends are very disturbing. But as long as the USA is the farm to the world we will be the reserve currency.
can we keep this discussion going please guys ? I am enjoying both of your perspectives on the situation.
Sure.
My main point was yes the fed has reduced their balance sheet but the money supply increased as a result of it.
I guess snuffles had nothing else to add.
I am always up for a monetary discussion.
Good talk tho.
I’m still here, i was curating for a while lol, you probably know more from the economics side than I do so I’ll admit that here. But we can agree that interest rates are rising and this would be “theoretically” due to a decrease in the money supply.
How are they hiding this increase in the M while Rates are rising and then what happens?
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Are you talking interest rates on the 10 year note or the Fed hiking rates.
They hide the money in the banks.
The banks are required to hold a certain percent of their total deposits in cash in the fed reserve. This must be balanced nightly and the fed pays them interest on it.
The slowly increase this and hide the money.
Don’t get me wrong getting the fed’s balance sheet down is good, but more dollars chasing the same goods is causing the inflation.
Then the large institutional investors manipulate the bond market to they can charge a higher rate this the inflation rate of the money supply.
Fiat is a big scam.