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RE: The GREAT CURRENCY BUBBLE is ENDING (part 2): How/When Bubbles actually burst
It sure does feel like we are nearing the end of the sidewalk. And yet, it could go still higher before a big fall.
I didn't realize that a lot of people are now financing cars with a 72-month loan instead of the 60 months I recall from 10 years ago.
There comes a point when the credit cannot expand further without the house collapsing.
Do you think a collapse hurts or helps crypto?
I tend to think the nearly all cryptocurrencies fall 90%+ as people cash out to pay for real-life costs like bills, mortgages ...
You are correct, credit always creates the bubbles, and bubbles always build on the place to get the next highest amount of credit. Stocks is typically 2:1 leverage (and sometimes as high as 10:1), and RE is 5:1 for starters and in years like 2006 can rise to "no doc" 20:1 and banking can rise to 40:1 easily (see the European banks). Currencies is the place to get infinite credit tho, it's a printing press-- electronic for speed.
Crypto's worst nightmare would be if it was adopted as a currency of commerce while the US Dollar still existed in it's strong form. Then you'd have HODLers inspired to use their crypto savings to purchase, and what would the retailers do? They'd be forced to sell the crypto and get fiat for them, if for no other reason than to report their gains to their shareholders and accountants in constant-currency form.
To answer your question, crypto IS the bubble, just it's subprime form. The craziest form of the bubbled commodity drops first, then the ones which are thought to be the strongest (Intel, Microsoft, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bunk of America, ShitiGroup, the Japanese Yen, the Chinese Yuan, The US Dollar) fall last.