ETH-USD Market Analysis - 18 June 2018
I have analysed the daily chart of ETHEREUM, with the best of my knowledge and i am posting the statistics here. Please note that i am learning TA and i am using this article as a log for my progress. This is not an investment advice. Invest your capital at your own risk.
So, without any further ado, let’s get started.
Ethereum has been moving inside the symmetrical triangle since long and is now approaching the end of the triangle(just like many other alts). The outcome of this movement in the triangle can be either break upwards or break downwards. If it becomes bullish, then it’s a good news(for Longs ofcourse!). But if the things go southwards, I do see a good support in the $450-$475 region. A very strong support lies in the $400-$360 region.
One peculiar thing about Ethereum which i noticed is that, it has been following the same uptrend line since May 2017. This line has been tested a few times in the past and has proven to be a great support from which, the price always rebounded. I see a good possibility that this uptrend line may be retested in the near future and if that happens, this line must hold else things are going to get ugly for Ethereum.
On the positive side, ETH must break out of the downtrend line for any good Bullish movement.
MACD
The lines seem to be converging which will result in a BUY signal.
Note that any kind of massive selling will push these lines away and we will have to wait again for the signal.
EMA + RSI
Note that, RSI is moving closer to lower band i.e. almost near to oversold region. This may or not be a sign of reversal.
Don't let it fool you that it is about to bottom out. There is still a scope of falling a lot more since the RSI is still not in oversold territory.
NOTE: RSI may remain oversold for some time in a strong downtrend. Think rationally before opening any position. Always have an open mind.
WILLIAMS ALLIGATOR
Nothing much to say here, the Williams Alligator is showing continued bearish trend since 28 May, as it is a lagging indicator.
VOLUME
The volume has been screaming on the top of the voice in support of the BEARS since the beginning of the June. As you can, there is a rise in price supported by a falling volume and a fall in picce supported by an increase in volume. These both are BEARISH scenarios. Don’t let the increasing price fool you to think that it has become Bullish, always check volume.
See this table for reference.
In the last 4 days, some indecision can be seen in the market. Two DOJIs have been spotted in these 4 days.
- The first DOJI was spotted on 15 Jun, after the recover from the massive selling from $600 to $450.
- The second DOJI was spotted on 17 June.
This indecision may soon lead the price in one direction – Up or Down. Also, notice the drastic drop in the volume in these last 4 days.
VOLUME OSCILLATOR
The Volume oscillator indicator indicates a loss of bearish momentum at this moment. The oscillator has a negative value of -23.
For all those who don’t know how volume oscillator works, let me explain it to you in simple words. This indicator plots positive values above the zero line and negative values below the line. A positive value suggests there is enough market support to continue driving price activity in the direction of the current trend. A negative value suggests there is a lack of support, that prices may begin to become stagnant or reverse.
ETH is already in a clear downrend. A positive value of volume oscillator may have suggested further downward movement. But since, the value is negative, there is a lack of support and the trend may reverse soon.
CONCLUSION:
I’ll leave it for you to decide. I am neither shorting nor longing at this moment, i am just sharing this for knowledge purposes only.
P.S: This is not an investment advice, and i am just learning. This is for my learning purpose only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Those who wish to achieve greatness, never seek for permissions.
They follow what their heart says,
and do what their mind states!
Good luck trading.!
Peace.
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