Market Analysis: The events circulating in the world of Bitcoin and the global Monetary chaos.

in #money8 years ago (edited)


July was another month of tension in the Crypto market, marked by several indicators and events that reinforce the feeling of being on the verge of reckoning with the monetary easing measures adopted around the world.

Jim Rickards, a renowned expert in financial wars, notes that the world is facing a systemic risk accumulation situation, with the global financial system constituting a huge avalanche, awaiting a single snowflake to fall apart.

Of course, this catastrophic scenario brings insecurity and anxiety to the market, but carries with it a huge opportunity for alternatives arise and new instruments, especially the bitcoin, gain space in a world contaminated by monetary insanity.

The perceived value of the bitcoin does not stop growing. In early January 2016, the digital currency price was around US $ 434 and reached the third week of June, the value of US $ 768, amid the tensions related to the unfolding of Brexit.



Much of July was marked by low volatility, with the price of the international market revolving around US $ 650, after the highly anticipated halving that from July 9 reduced by 50% the reward of miners bitcoin.

The month closed down with speculation about the private meeting between the developers responsible for protocol maintenance and major miners in the world, pulling the international market for bitcoin to the range of $ 615.


The Events Across the Globe.

Several macroeconomic factors contributed to the increased interest of new investors and the consequent rise in the price of bitcoin this year. The most important are undoubtedly the devaluation of the Chinese currency and the Brexit, who made many investors to retreat from their positions in China and the UK, leading a marginal portion of these funds to be allocated in bitcoin as a way of diversification and portfolios protection.

The global political and economic scenario, however, appears to add some more factors that could significantly impact the price of bitcoin.

Europe

The largest bank in Europe, Deutsche Bank, has positioned itself last month on the need for an emergency rescue for the European financial sector.  The German government has remained faithful to austerity stance and opposed the clamor for another bailout of the financial sector, but knows that it will eventually be inevitable to prevent further collapse. In Italy, 17% of bank loans are considered high risk of insolvency, totaling about 300 billion euros of bad credit. Portugal and Spain have not recovered from the accumulated European debt crisis between 2010 and 2012 and Greece in turn, remains in a dangerous situation.



EUA

The low growth of the US economy of 1.2% in the second quarter, on an annualized basis, was well below the expectation of 2.5% high market. This fact, coupled with the Fed's decision to keep the interest rate reduces the dollar strengthening pressure, paving the way for appreciation of some currencys.

With the decreased productivity of the economy and inflation on the rise, the United States may be heading for a stagnation scenario. News that are a full plate for the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, an increasingly strong postulant to take the White House after the November elections.


China

In China, the stock market remains one of the most expensive in the world, despite the sharp decline since the middle of last year. The Asian giant following its transition to strengthen the internal market and rely less on exports, as the global economy slows more every day.

The measure adopted to boost the Chinese domestic market has been the devaluation of the yuan, which has led the Chinese investors ways to protect, running especially gold, real estate assets abroad and most recently the acquisition of bitcoin.


Meanwhile, in Japan, the central bank promises a new injection of money into the economy to revive sluggish economic activity, which tends to devalue the Japanese currency, the yen, considered an active traditional protection by the markets.

BITCOIN AND ALTS

The bitcoin has been an excellent alternative to hide in times of uncertainty. Investors have preferred to deal with the inherent volatility of bitcoin to submit to the uncertainties of monetary policies and the ongoing value destruction in markets around the world. Bitcoin has its own reasons, its own value, and mostly is not dependent on any central authority.

In the market of digital currencies last month's attentions were turned to the episode involving the division of the network (hardfork) of Ethereum, which in practice ended up putting another new currency market the Ethereum Classic, known by the acronym ETC. A real media war settled, profiling the one hand the hardfork the defenders were able to recover the ethers of the attack on DAO application and across users who did not agree with the change of Ethereum code and remained faithful to the rule of immutability from the Web.

The month of August has everything to be busy in the market and, therefore, i suggest caution and attention to take advantage of the volatility that promises to intensify over the period.


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I honestly was not prepared for the negative trend. I was expecting it to stay stable but then, I get a notification from CoinMarketCap saying that the price is falling below $630. Do you think it will go back up this week?

One must be careful. The bitcoin was already falling by discussion of possible changes in the code to improve some aspects, and the news regarding bitfinex that occurred today dropped the price further.

It's hard to say if the price is good to buy, because I believe it is not clear whether the price currently reflects completely the events, or if there a manipulation there.

Keep up the great work @fabiocortes10
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Hi! This post has a Flesch-Kincaid grade level of 14.2 and reading ease of 46%. This puts the writing level on par with academic journals.

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