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RE: Lions! Expect A Short Term Dollar Bounce-Trade it! By Gregory Mannarino
Although I do not know exactly how Greg structured his UUP set-up, regardless he is already in the money and raking it in as the day goes on. That is what I call results.
He opened the UUP trade today and it was most certainly an "in the money" trade as that is his modis operandi. So let's check the "logical" strike for Sept, and Oct expiry. It's more likely he went with the Oct 20 expiry $24 calls. Days range is .28 to .34, last trade of .34. The UUP trade is actually more typical of what Greg does. We have seen him chase rallies...and also close long trades on gapdown moves and then go short. Tis part of the reason why his "actual" results are so dismal actually. Yesterday was the first trade I can remember where Greg actually "bought" a gapdown move...via his Q's trade. :-) UUP just breached the 24.09 high and is signaling a short term sell...which I need "if" I am going to get my GDX short/DUST long from a "logical" pov...and this is about as "logical" as I get when trading as trading on "logic" gets your ass kicked 90% of the time. :-)
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=uup&x=56&y=7&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Again, target of 23.77, which doesn't even show up on that chart. Ask me how I "knew" when you see it.
If you're trying to swing trade his calls, you are using the wrong tactics. A daily call like this one on UUP is meant to be worked in 4-hour increments...not days and not weeks
I won't be trading UUP until it breaches the target I gave you. And my GDX short will be an "intermediate" term hold as the chances are better than good the entire sector will be making new 52 week lows after my sell call. I try not to make many 1 or 2 day trades, altho if you visit my JCP blog you will see how that long generated a 50% gain in less than 5 trading days, and my most recent SPY buys generated a 200% gain in 1 day, followed by another SPY long that netted 50% last Fri alone. I think I pointed those trades out to you at your blog in fact. SPY was down $1 from my entry price...and I STILL netted 200%. I don't really care if you watch me work my magic or not. But you are wrong about price being the "ultimate" indicator. "Incorrect" pricing is actually what generates great trades. Let's see if UUP starts to fade sub $24 here. I think I can take the Q's thru 145.91 before I enter my short for the move that the market already gar-own-teed is coming...to QQQ 141...ish. See...right there on the chart. The markets don't lie...traders get it wrong. :-)
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=qqq&x=68&y=17&time=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
If you were "patient" with your SPY short you would have gotten out close to even on the trade. The unwind to setup the next short opp should easily take the SPY back to 245.50 anyhoo, probly a tad lower. This shit's too easy.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=spy&x=51&y=12&time=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
If you followed my trade advice and installed a trailing stop on the short you would have scooped a whopping 30 point move on NK, be automatically flat on the the bounce up (of course losing the bounce opportunity). What does patience have to do with this? It is all about trade discipline and setting up your trades properly.
Patience is everything...unless you are happy with getting stopped out. :-) I don't use stops unless it is a mental stop like I used on my SPY trade on Fri. My SPY calls actually doubled a second time but I ended up settling for 50%. I did time the first exit by "intuition" though. That works much better than stops for me anyway. Stops are for people who have no confidence in their trade. If you aren't confident in the trade don't make it...just that simple.
I got stopped out with a profit. What's so wrong about that?
LOL You were short the SPY into the open according to you. Just "wingin it" basically...according to your tutorial last night anyway. No waaay you were stopped out with a gain. No way...no how.
I got stopped out in the overnight after market action. I was flat going into the open
but my trade book does show a $550 loss on that winging-it trade
Nonetheless, here comes the SPY...as "promised." Or should I say >>> instructed? :-)
Yep, I just got triggered too, I am now short again
Again, I hope you are trading a tax deferred account since your gain on the new short will have to equal your loss on the last one...and then some, just to make the trade worth while. I'd hate to be your accountant btw. LOL
yes my accountant hates me. last tax season took him 3 days to enter all trades on the tax reporting form, but you are wrong, if you go back into the same trade within 3 days the clearing house will consider it a 'wash' transaction for tax purposes as if the 'in/out' never occurred.