RE: What should I do with my money ?
@guillaume-pj - I upvoted the article but here is what I think. And apologies for being blunt...
Statement that the worst thing is to do nothing is just wrong. If you bought assets summer 2008 - you would have lost. If you bought ahead of dot com crisis - you would have lost. Most recent oil drop from $140....
Regarding inflation - we now have DEflation in Europe. In Japan it was a DEflation for more then a decade. What about FX volatility is it worth buying in one currency or another?
The fact that millionaires have been investing over the last year 20% in real estate, stock or bonds market does not mean that this tactics will give you returns going forward. It is CRUCIAL to understand why situation went as they went, if the conditions are still the same, and if not - what is different. And then make conclusion.
And finally, I think asking for an advice and considering different options IS good. You should not start investing "yesterday".... the best thing here is a thorough approach. Unrealised profit is better than realised loss.
Happy to be proven wrong. And apologies once again for being a bit direct.
Hey Conspi, no problem. I appreciate honest feedback.
Here are my thoughts on the subject:
When I am talking about investing, I am not only talking about the Stock market. There are 4 types of different asset classes and I also assume (wrongly?) that people do their homework and don't invest in only one type of asset class, and use some diversification to reduce their risks. (Balancing stock with bonds, real estate with real economy investments, and security assets with personal skills)
I am also looking at longer trends, if you bought assets in 2008 (in all types of asset classes), you would have probably lost money, but in the long run you'd still be ahead compared to someone who just kept cash. My real estate investments from that period still have a positive ROI.
We have indeed experienced a small deflation in Europe for the past few months, and looking at longer trends we can see the overall inflation average rate is still positive and it looks like it will still be positive in 2016. (http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/europe/historic-inflation/hicp-inflation-europe.aspx)
Now Japan is a very special case. I have lived in this beautiful country and they really have a deep fear of inflation that brings them back to the 70s' inflation nightmare. If we look at the longer trends, inflation is in this case slightly positive or almost flat.
Regarding FX and the volatility on the currency markets, I personally avoid any type of FX trade. Most people I know who trade FX 24/7 for banks or funds are getting killed on a daily basis. I have never seen anyone doing this as an amateur or part time, being able to consistently beat the market over a long period of time. There are always a few exceptions but please be very cautious with FX ! Most people who make real money trading FX, are brokers and middle men or marketing experts that themselves carry no risk overnight.
You indeed have a point. The question wether today's market conditions remain the same overall is very relevant. Some people believe our economy is now very different and that we cannot rely on modern portfolio theory anymore. I however, still believe that if you invest your money consistently over time in financial products, real estate, real economy and yourself, you will improve your financial well-being and your net worth overtime.
Asking for advice is totally fine. It's just that most people who "ask me for advice" are just expecting an easy answer and don't want to spend time learning and doing their homework. They don't know what to do with their extra cash and are looking for a quick profit. As you said, there is no free lunch ! My goal is to motivate people to learn about their different options and to choose a financial goal that suits them.
No need to apologise ! Thanks for your reply.