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RE: US/China Tariffs and what it will mean for your technology
Thanks for another post @k0d3g3ar 👍😊
What do you think will happen to the USD in relation to foriegn currencies like the Philippine Peso?
Thanks for another post @k0d3g3ar 👍😊
What do you think will happen to the USD in relation to foriegn currencies like the Philippine Peso?
The USD is the Petro Dollar and backs most of the world economies. If it goes down, so does anything tied to it. Think of it like BTC. If BTC goes down, then Alt coins go down. They are not the same thing but one typically backs the other. When BTC price dropped from $15K to $7K, ETH dropped from $900 to $500. Sometimes the proportions may be skewed, but the same rationale applies.
Currencies that are not attached to the Petro dollar may not be affected by this. But the world is a global supply chain, so anyone participating in the process of getting products from manufacturer to consumer is going to take a hit here. That includes shipping, local tax authorities, packaging companies, wholesalers, and retailers. End to end pain, unfortunately.
And the other issue is that certain regions that are based on trade have lots of peripheral businesses there to service the needs of the workers in those regions. Consider a simple food store that is near a trading center. If the trading center downsizes due to trade restrictions, that food store may go out of business. In doing so, their staff are laid off and can no longer spend money. That affects all the people they do business with. The dominoes fall rather quickly here.
The downside of a world economy and global supply chain system like this is that all the interconnecting components (incl. your local currency) all get affected. Some more than others, but a downturn in trade that turns into a downturn in employment means less money in the financial system, thereby making the existing money in that system more valuable. If Federal Reserves artificially inflate the monetary supply, then the value of our dollars right now is diluted and consequently your money has less buying power.
Economists have been pretending to be the Penn & Teller of money for decades and it is all a game. Until we create a society based on decentralized communities with a mutually agreed protocol on how we can integrate in terms of trade, respect, etc. then we will forever be subject to central power struggles like this and no one wins.
I am interested to know if the USD will remain strong compared to the PHP, and if it will increase in strength.
The money I earn is in USD so it benefits me when the conversion rate for USD is high. If the US Federal Reserve Bank continues to raise interest rates, I think the PHP will continue to weaken against the dollar.
That helps me a little bit since the debt I have is in PHP. It also benefits the many Filipinos who earn USD, or receive remittances from the states.
I think Steem has an advantage over Bitcoin, since the transactions in Steem are feeless, but Bitcoin transactions carry a fee.
It's hard to tell, and this is definitely not financial advice. However I have been tracking the USD to the Mexican Peso of late, and even with the NAFTA trade agreement meetings, etc. here, the Mexican Peso is trading today at about 19:1 to the $USD. I've seen peaks around 21:1, but over the past 12 months (pre-NAFTA trade) it hasn't changed more than 10%. Just remember that most world currencies are tied to the $USD, so the exchange between countries might end up in the local currency but typically the global transactions are traded in $USD. I believe you are referring to how your local currency will convert from $USD to PHP, so I think the USD is strong and will likely maintain that position. We've seen other countries (e.g. Australia) experience a downgrade in their currency value due to their close ties to China for resources.
As for Steem vs. Bitcoin, BTC is still the gold standard for crypto-currencies. The fees vary but with Segwit and Lightning Network, those fees should be reduced to almost nothing over the next 12-24 months as long as your exchange embraces these technology upgrades.