After a high near $65,000 Bitcoin is currently at $36.700

Seems many are saying we've hit the top and fallen into a bear cycle.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430646-an-educated-projection-for-a-potential-2021-bitcoin-crash

Many investors suffer the illusion of control bias. Bitcoin's current price pattern mirrors the crash from 2014 and 2017 where 5 events repeat themselves on both occasions.

These 5 sequences are reversal patterns, drop to 50%, recover to 20% from peak, drop 70% from the peak, bottom out at 85% from the peak.

A Bitcoin bear market typically spans 1 year and takes another 2 years to recover back to the peaks, currently, it seems we've followed through sequences 1 and 2.

While the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin is bearish, remember it is just a cycle where the next bull run would be a $100k bitcoin.

As if the TA isn't bad enough we have Chinese Mining Fud and Elon turning the Greenies against BTC.

Source: https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3134473/china-escalates-crackdown-bitcoin-mining-trading

Beijing will intensify the crackdown on bitcoin mining to protect the country’s financial system, as well as meet its clean energy and reduced carbon emission goals. Photo: ReutersBeijing will intensify the crackdown on bitcoin mining to protect the country’s financial system, as well as meet its clean energy and reduced carbon emission goals. Photo: Reuters

Beijing will intensify the crackdown on bitcoin mining to protect the country’s financial system, as well as meet its clean energy and reduced carbon emission goals.

China will crackdown on bitcoin mining, according to an announcement by the government‘s cabinet three days after regulators reiterated their ban of digital tokens in financial transactions, delivering a one-two punch that may further weigh on the cryptocurrency industry after triggering last week’s global sell-off.

The government will “crackdown on bitcoin mining and trading behavior, and resolutely prevent the transfer of individual risks to the society”, according to a statement by the State Council’s Financial Stability and Development Committee chaired by Vice-Premier Liu He, the Chinese president‘s top representative on economic and financial matters.

Elon Environment FUD

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9609073/Elon-Musk-tweets-support-crypto-helping-Bitcoins-price-stabilize-37-600.html

Elon Musk was a cryptocurrency champion but earlier this month tanked the price by expressing concern about good it was for the environment

Then on Saturday, Musk made a vague reference to crypto, Tweeting: 'Any sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology'

When someone asked him who he was angry at, Musk replied that the 'true battle is between fiat & crypto. On balance, I support the latter'

The renewed support appeared to stabilize Bitcoin's dramatic drop in value over the past seven days
It rose briefly to $38,150 before easing slightly to $37,600 late on Saturday night

Musk said earlier this month that Bitcoin mining uses more energy than small countries do
Tesla is no longer accepting cryptocurrency as payment for its vehicles

So here we are but the bull season didn't begin or end how I thought it would, so I'm still hoping for a recovery, just like I did in January 2018.

Summer with BTC is generally slow so it might take some time. Generally a major change in Market Condition includes a large run on BTC and a Large Dump.

My theory is that the market was much more verticle this round and less verticle, types and numbers of projects spread out the incoming finances and ETH and DEFI grew as fast as Bitcoin and during the same time period.

OR my preferred theory is ... We take a short break here, maybe as long as the summer months before blasting back off.

What are your thoughts?

@whatsup