Post Hoc Fallacy
B happens after A, therefore A caused B.
Maybe it’s the way the human brain works and it is hardwired into our consciousness. We are highly sophisticated pattern recognition machines. Not only can we detect relationships and patterns anywhere from inkblots to market prices, we also detect patterns and relationships that may not actually exist.
Especially in areas where there is natural variance, like golf scores or winning bingo cards, our mind constantly seeks reasons for this variance. Does randomness exist? Or is randomness the word we give for events where we haven’t yet discovered the underlying pattern?
Take for instance, back pain. People have good days and bad days. If you wear a magnetic bracelet and your back pain subsides, is the power of magnetism working? Or would you be experiencing some reduced pain days anyway without the bracelet?
Examples of Post Hoc Fallacy:
1) Ever since I took these special vitamins, I started losing weight. These vitamins work. (Did you also start eating less and start exercising?)
2) Once I started to eat less fat, I started losing weight. Fat makes you fat. (Maybe just eating less of anything makes you lose weight)
3) Once I started to eat less carbs, I started losing weight. Carbs make you fat. (Maybe just eating less of anything makes you lose weight)
4) This person called me and I got into a car accident. This person is bad luck. (Maybe you shouldn’t be driving while on your mobile).
5) Every time I drink beer first then go to whiskey, I get hammered. Don’t mix beer with whiskey. (Maybe you’re drinking your whiskey like beer)
6) When I think of a song, I turn on the radio and that song is playing. I have psychic powers. (Maybe that song just gets played a lot)
7) You held a forked stick in both hands as you walked around and found water. The stick led me to water. (Maybe there’s a lot of water around)
8) You put ketchup on a pimple and two weeks later, the pimple disappeared. Ketchup removes pimples. (How long do pimples last anyway?)
9) An ancient looking chinese man poked some needles into my back and my muscle pains vanished. Acupuncture works! (Muscle pains can vary from day to day. Aromatherapy on the other hand …)
10) Our entire church prayed for Christie who had cancer and now she is cured! Prayer works! (Cancers do actually just go away sometimes).
11) I lit incense at the Buddhist shrine for my kids and they made a lot of money this year. (Maybe you have industrious kids that also happened to get lucky)
If given a choice, people would rather live in a world where justice exists. People get rewarded for good behavior and punished for bad behavior. How many people have you heard say that they believe everything happens for a reason? The thought of a world with divine order is a lot more attractive to most people than one where shit just happens .
Loved this one: 'Every time I drink beer first then go to whiskey, I get hammered. Don’t mix beer with whiskey.'
Or in my case, always be sure to mix beer with whiskey!
Still better drink beer before whiskey, not after ;-)
Or don't be soft and just drink whiskey!
Those who believe in telekinetics, raise my hand (C) Kurt Vonnegut
lol never heard that one
That's a funny joke :D
I am a secondary level Maths teacher and logic comes up mostly when teaching stats. While stats is not my favourite part of the subject, I consider my job well done when I get just a few of the class to realise correlation does not mean causality
Obligatory xkcd: http://xkcd.com/552/
Ahhh the ol' Correlation =/= causation.
This phenomenon is where most religious and superstitious beliefs come from in my opinion. Remember, once upon a time people didn't know where the sun went at night, so imagine some of the things they must have figured must be connected causally
Yup and this: "I prayed and then my headache went away"... completely ignoring the fact that all headaches go away, with or without prayer.
A great polished piece on thought. Thank you
Thank you for your kind words!
Cant argue with anything you say~
What I can say is that cause an affect are real. I could come up with just as many examples of things like "If I throw this rock in the air is it going to come down? Did it come down because thats the way it works or because of a factor unawares?"
So to me randomness is obvious, there is obviously things that happen randomly and cannot really be predicted yet there is also lots that can be predicted like the migration of birds.
Yet even in what can be predicted there is still variance.
What to me is most influential is the level of awareness.
If someone who has no real awareness of what they eat or of health starts taking a pill then its possible the pill is actually healthy or its possible that just the decision to be healthier is influencing them to be healthier. Yet both of these things could be true.
This is what is potentially so great about science is that you experiment with something and see if you can duplicate results.
Yet at the same time even "reproducible science" has variance.
So really there is no absolute answer for anything except for maybe that change is constant or chaos is a part of it.
What I have found is that the more conscious I am, the more I experiment, the more I pay attention the more successful I get at whatever it is I do. I don't take peoples word as truth, I consider it, I research it I experiment with it. Then if I find it to be true even then I don't say "THIS IS THE WAY IT IS!" I say "This is my experience and what works for me"
Thanks for the thought provoking post, any time people consciously ponder evolution is taking place at some level and this is beneficial~*~
Am I doing this right?
Thanks - a useful post! I especially like this point
This reasoning has its own name - the Just World Fallacy. I think it's one of the most pernicious.
Excellent! Enjoyed reading your comment and link.