How's the post Covid-19 World looks like?

incrediblesnow (66)in #like • 4 years ago (edited)

We have have just heard second quarter GDP figures. To put things in context,

( to explain the meaning of something is reading)
[In this context, 'to put things in context' = to explain the worst negative economic growth]

this is our worst quarterly performance on record. The forecast for 2020 essentially means the growth generated over the past two to three years will be negated. (make ineffective 否定的)

The numbers reflect the impact of Covid-19 as well as deeper forces reshaping the global economy and our position in the global value chains. I know that some are still hoping for a quick recovery and a return to the familiarity of the old normal.

The painful truth is this we are not returning to pre-Covid 19 world. Recovery will still be some time yet and the recovery is not likely to be smooth. We can expect recurring waves of infection and disruption. Furthermore, recovery will be uneven across sectors. Some sectors progressively recover while others will be permanently changed.

We have to start now to build a new economy and to create more and better job opportunities for our people. We cannot wait for Covid-19 to blow over.

Blow over = fade away without serious consequences.

Let me explain. The world has changed irrevocably in 4 areas.

irrevocably=in a way that cannot be changed, reversed, or recovered

1.) The geopolitical environment which had allow us to thrive in the last 50 years has changed. The tensions among the major powers are increasing. The competition and tension permeates not just politics but also trade technology and security and because of the benefits of globalization has been uneven distributed. The merits of free trades and global integration are increasingly being questioned. We hoped that geopolitical issues will not spill into open conflict that will further destabilize the rest of the world. We must avoid being caught between the conflicts of major powers, or be stranded in the fragmenting world of trade relations and technological standards. One simple example of the challenges if we do business in China, we communicate with our chinese counterpart by wechat, they cant access whatsapp. If we do business in the US, we use whatsapp, wechat may not even be available in the US in the future. Friction like this will be inevitable in a more complicated world.

permeates = spread throughout (something); 滲透
fragment = break into fragment
merits = 優點
integrate = combine (one thing) with another to form a whole.
strand = drive or leave (a boat, sailor, or sea creature) aground on a shore. 擱淺

2.) The way global companies are reorganizing their production and supply chains. Companies are reviewing the need for regional hubs. Thanks to digital technology and ubiquitous communications. A few has decided to just have one global HQ and a few local centers where their companies production or specialized manufacturers are reviewing where their factories are cited. Many are shifting from a focus on efficiency or just in time to resilience or just in case they want to diversify their operations markets and supply chains so that they are not dependent on any one side. On one hand, new investments will come our way. For instance, some manufacturers are thinking of a China plus one strategy and actively looking at Asean including Singapore. On the other hand, some existing investments may diversify away from Singapore especially where Singapore is the sole manufacturing site for some mncs. It is a fluid landscape and we must do everything we can to defend our capabilities and capacities while winning new ones. We must also harness our competitive advantages of legal certainty intellectual property protection ,connectivity ,policy consistency and coherence to overcome constraints in land and labor. The nature of tax and how it affects investment decisions have also changed. The US has already made a major tax overhaul. Many countries are spending more than what bringing in and there is pressure for them to collect more taxes from mnc and to pressure companies to do more in their home countries rather than overseas. Some countries have unilaterally taken to tax digital activity and tare looking to do more. The are also asserting their influence through global platform like the OECD. All these will affect companies investment decisions overseas including in Singapore. The above circumstances provide us opportunities but also challenges if we do not adapt quickly we will be bypassed.

ubiquitous = found everywhere普及
cited = refer to (a passage, book, or author) as evidence for or justification of an argument or statement, especially in a scholarly work.
justification = the action of showing something to be right or reasonable 理由
harness = put a harness on (a horse or other draught animal) OR If you harness something such as an emotion or natural source of energy, you bring it under your control and use it.控制；利用
overhaul= take apart (a piece of machinery or equipment) in order to examine it and repair it if necessary.

3) The nature of jobs have changed. Covid has shown companies and workers that remote working is possible . Over the years, we have successfully created many jobs here especially PMET jobs for Singaporeans by having many HQs and factories located here. With remote work, more global opportunities for our workers will come but it also means that other workers in other countries can do our jobs from their homes. You might have noticed that some jobs on the regional headquarters here are being advertised as can work in Singapore or can work remotely. This will affect many PMET jobs which can either be done virtually or through automation and AI.

4) As the economic pie grows more slowly or contracts, it will cause more societal frictions and tensions between those who have more and those with less between local and foreign and even between Singapore citizen and PRs. The cause for greater protection and more redistribution can be expected in many societies including ours. We cannot isolate ourselves from the world. Without the world as our hinterland and market, we will reduce Singapore's economic maneuvering space and limit rather than expand opportunities for our people. We will need to better take care of those affected by job and business losses. We have and we will continue to do this in sustainable way that is not divisive affirm the dignity of work and strengthen our social fabric. These tensions unless well managed can divide our society. This is not the Asian Financial Crisis or the Global FC where if we hunker down and things will improve in a few months. If we wait it out, we will likely be in worse shape than we are now. Therefore, we must chart a new direction now. For a very different and uncertain future, we do not have all the answers yet and the ground realities are fast evolving often without precedence but we know that staying still is not an option but we must walk and we will walk this path together. Everyone must shift in. Participating including contribution of ideas and suggestions as we move into uncharted waters. We must work together with our people to help them understand the need for changes and to implement them smoothly. in the few months we will provide regular updates on the economy and job situation sector by sector. We will involve the unions, the employers, and the trade association we will visit companies in various sectors, work with the unions and associations discuss with them the changes and chart the way forward together to get us through this crisis. Ultimately, challenges will not define us, how we respond to these challenges together will define us, while the path forward is unclear, we will hold on to 3 principles as we chart the new path ahead.

hinterland = the land behind the coast or the banks of a river, or an area of a country that is far away from cities 內陸，後方地區
maneuvering = a cleverly planned action that is intended to get an advantage
策略；花招；妙計
affirm = to state something as true or to publicly show your support for an opinion or idea
（公開）聲明 / 證實
dignity = the state or quality of being worthy of honour or respect.

3 Principles

1.) First, we will open for business safely and sustainably. It will not be a binary option of open or close. It can be done. We must stay open while isolating the impacted clusters quickly and tightly. Doing it progressively and systematically to know which are the high risk areas. We will learn from experiences of others and watch their developments closely. We must learn to manage the spectrum of risks from different activities proportionately and put in place tighter measures for the higher risk activities. Above all if each and every one of us exercise social responsibility we can permit more activities to reopen with less risk.

2.) We will help our businesses and workers make sense of and adjust to the new world. We have 3 archetypes of firms.

The first group of firms are those with opportunities, not withstanding covid19 and perhaps of covid 19, we will give a boost to these firms grow because as they grow, they will create more jobs and opportunities for our workers example of this many in ICT, biopharma, supply chains and precision engineering sectors. The completion for these new investments has become more intense, we will continue to create and provide conducive and attractive environment for new businesses to start up here and for them to plan their investment here for the long term. We will compete for the new industries that will entrench our role in the global value chains. It is not just about making money now, it is about building resilient and sustainable systems for the future and job creation in the next in 1 to 2 years will be critical beyond just the value add capture. Jobs preserve the dignity and livelihoods of our workforce and the confidence of our investors.

The second group of firms are those who are suffering a drop in demand but will eventually recover. We will preserve their core capabilities in the meantime and help them emerge stronger.Helping these companies with their cash flows from JSS to rental relied schemes are part of these overall efforts. Overtime, we should redirect the support towards helping them generate fresh revenue and become more cost efficient. Some Fnb companies such as A1 Fnb Group build new revenue streams in products and delivery even after dining in resume. Some enrichment classes and event companies have expanded to online events and services. To build new revenues streams and to adjust to the new way companies are working.

The third group of companies in industries that have permanently changed. This is the most difficult part. We will help them reinvent themselves pivot into new markets and new products, some businesses are already acting now. They know that the good old days will not return., many of the mass market tourism mice and social entertainment companies are thinking and acting along these lines already, and we will help them along. We know these are tough decisions to make but they are necessary for us to overcome the crises together, the faster we adapt and change, the faster our recovery; Conversely the slower we adapt and change ,others will overtake us and the opportunities will bypass us.

archetype = a very typical example of a certain person or thing. 典型
notwithstanding = in spite of, nevertheless儘管 , although
entrench = to firmly establish something 牢固
mass market tourism mice, Mice = The Meetings, Events, and Incentive Travel Market