Crypto Bubbles, Tulips, and Wishful Dandelion Seeds

Ode to Tulips

Today I gained insight into the mindset of crypto non-believers. The comparison with the 1999 dot com bubble was brought up to signal a match with the current euphoria and excitement being felt in the 'investor class' who dabble in stocks looking for the next big winner, and now more and more find themselves attracted to crypto currency trading.

To the moon! Is a common wishful siren song on many forums for many coins. But today, I understood that people are looking for reasons to get into crypto.

A quick scan of Youtube will yield tons of videos describing the esoteric technical analysis triangles of this coin or that coin, as well as many tutorial videos on how to set up Bitconnect and join the 'mass movement' into crypto cash heaven.

I think it's worth addressing the multiple currents of motivation and value going on right now.

This is not the Dutch tulip craze of the 1600 (although the recent cryptokitties phenomenon and it's obsessive breeding of 'cattributes' makes it seem pretty close!)

The underlying value to society and civilization is clear (we thought the same around the dot com bubble, but until Google and high speed internet, it was all bubble thinking). Blockchain technology on the other hand - and the immutable, decentralized ledge of record that it has brought, will no doubt facilitate a wave of efficiency and usefulness. Some beneficiaries of the current centralized system (such as banks) will spin the evolution as a way to become more efficient...but to borrow a phrase - the (re)evolution will not be televised!

The Other Shoe

Of course we also know that human nature, being what it is, has a nasty tendency to react irrationally when faced with greed and panic. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) have entered the pop culture lexicon. And so, when we have the likes of Charlie Lee only a couple of days ago posted this sage and conservative investment advice (responsible investing, like responsible drinking, is always good advice):

And the market promptly shot up even more! One mere day later, he retweeted:

Irrational exuberance anyone? There is clearly something going on that combines the wide range of emotions currently circulating. We are hopeful of an amazing new technology that will disrupt and revolutionize (making life better for everyone). We are fearful of missing out, and we are probably drunk of the euphoria. We know the spikes in prices are not a long term trend - and that gold rushes are often followed by bear-markets as Charlie Lee clearly pointed out. We know all this, yet every day we have a new joiner to the crypto party...a skeptic that finally gives in...so where will we be in 6 months? The world has never been so digitally interconnected, or so populous for that matter. So it is quite possible we literally can be on the moon in 6 months. I've seen comments on Twitter about crypto being a hedge against inflation in places like Venezuela - and this indeed may be a happy coincidence for those economies ravaged by hyperinflation. However, the inevitable corrections from over buying may as one commentator put it, end in a river of tears.

Serenity in Our Time

The good news is, we'll still have the amazing Blockchain Technology if that happens. So keep STEEMing on, keep dreaming, hoping and making wishes. The FOMO, FUD, Greed and other noise will come and go, community building and improvement - common goals of social betterment, personal growth, and inner peace far outweigh the sounds from any bursting bubbles...