No matter how high the price of STEEM, earning STEEM will be harder and harder in the future.
From my writings this week you probably have noticed I'm struggling with my thoughts.
I think the direction in which the blockchain is heading is fantastic with more entrepreneurs joining the blockchain.
In the long run I think this is the best move for the platform but not everyone agrees with that.
There is something positive about this too because the fact that we can talk about this blockchain on this blockchain tells me how good it is.
Right now every content creator is feeling it. Something is off. The payouts are going down yet the STEEM price is not so low.
Everything seems a little harder than before.
It's a perfectly normal consequence of blockchain.
More people are mining STEEM so the difficulty has gone up.
It's just going a lot faster then I thought.
It means that every STEEM you obtained so far was easier earned than it will ever be.
I'm very patient though.
I have been here for almost 2 years since I joined and I'm willing to be patient for years to come.
I have been trough every negative and happy period on this blockchain.
What I do know is that every STEEM will be harder and harder to obtain for everyone in the future.
In my 2 years here I have seen a lot of good people power down from frustration or fear or maybe the thought that they could always earn it back again.
I think that's a mistake if you believe this blockchain will be bigger and better in the future.
Steem tokens will be harder and harder to earn in the future.
The reason is simple:
You have more users/entrepreneurs competing over a reward pool that is fixed.
Now, I'm talking about the actual tokens (STEEM) not the value of the payouts in US dollars.
The payouts in US dollars might very well go up when the STEEM price increases but you will get less STEEM for your posts.
Example (with very simplified calculations):
Imagine the STEEM price is $1 and you have a $10 payout. That would result in 10 STEEM.
Now imagine the price of STEEM at $250 and you have a $250 payout. That would result in 1 STEEM.
or
Imagine the price of STEEM at $250 and you have a $10 payout. That would result in 0,04 STEEM.
Pretty simple! Right?
It's something you need to consider before you sell your STEEM.
In other words.
It basically means that anyone would have been better off keeping their STEEM if they sold under the current price of $2,30. (And that's not even taking in consideration how much more STEEM could have been generated by putting it in STEEMPOWER).
Only if you put those earnings into another investment that increased more or sold STEEM at a price higher than $2,30 would you have been better off (for now).
To show how 'easy' it used to be to earn STEEM for some I broke down the most successfull post in Steemit history under the circumstances from then compared to now.
The most successful post in Steem history in terms of payout value.
The most succesful post on the blockchain was this one here.
The famous makeup tutorial.
The payout for that one post was $31,543.
Back then that resulted in the following:
13,329 SBD + 9564 STEEMPOWER.
The price of STEEM closed on the markets that day at $3,25.
So the total value in USD for that 1 post was: $13,329 + (9564*$3,25) = $44,412
Not bad for one post!
Of course the whole blockchain was different back than.
We had an n^2 curve, a TWO year power down period and a inflation of 100%.
How would a post that high break down today?
$31,543
$31,543 * 0,75 = $23,657
SBD = $23,657 / 2 = 11,828 SBD
SP = $23,657 / 2 / current Steem price ($2,30) = 5142 SP.
This post would have resulted in: 5142SP + $11828 SBD
Now these types of payouts are no longer possible unless the STEEM price goes up to roughly $40-$50 (I estimated from a top trending post of around $1000 payout right now).
So realistically a post of $31,543 would break down to $11828 SBD + $23,657 / 2 / Steem price ($40) = 295 SP.
It's easy to see that no matter how high STEEM will go from here, earning it will be harder and harder.
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Greetings, great Master of knowledge in Steem, Exyle
Very interesting your writing about Steem. I hadn't thought of that. I found that with the growth in the price of the Steem currency, the value of the votes would tend to be proportionate. Now that I understand that with the highest input of people, it gives a certain amount of time in the pool of rewards, that would be it???
There is a doubt that arises in relation to your text. I wonder if actually the Steem currency can achieve this value all (I hope it can) and how long we will be able to use the Steemit platform well. I invested my money here in Criptomoedas, even though I know that this application is a risk...
Also, I was curious to know how the girl's makeup post achieved this monstrous value. I am a few months on the platform (I entered this year) and did not see a gain not a bit like that.
Thank you for posting and Good morning!!!
I'm with you on this, but really, I hope things get better on steemit for the good of everyone. But is there anything we can do to make things better?
I dont know man. I dont have the knowlegge of persons who make steemit and i am not good with new tecnology. I hope someone could help. I help people with another things, that i can do, but, not with tecnology!!
Lol, so we'll just hope....... I think it'll get better with time though
This kind of ingenuity in #steem will be mixed with SMT
Be there is my answer.
I have to say you have been there in the rough
No strange for you that it will be harder.
Thanks for this great reminder
I’ve been harping on this idea in a lot of discussions lately! One of my favorite simple examples is...
There’s roughly 250 million Steem in existence and a 10% inflation rate, resulting in 25 million Steem distributed from the rewards pool each year. (This is a simplification) Imagine we grow to a very modest 10 million users... That would mean that on average each user will earn just 2.5 Steem per year! And of course 2.5 is the average, what would be accomplished if everyone earned equally. The median earning will be far less. Average non professional, non entrepreneurial users will assuredly earn less than 1 Steem per year.
The Steem blockchain is a wonderful toolset, but not a cornucopia of cash! We are all very fortunate to have been here at the outset. This is very pertinent when setting expectations with new incoming users. It’s up to them whether they feel fortunate at their still early arrival, or disheartened by the road ahead.
SMTs may prove critical in enabling feelings of growth, accomplishment, and reward for the mass of users, even while Steem balances grow more stagnant.
Great point you make there @bryan-imhoff. Appreciate your input 👍🏻
Thank you for this well thought out comment.
As far as i see it, new users come mostly for the opportunity to make some cash, when they see their rewards are too little, they will stop using the account. The best way for users to stay is to give them ways to have fun here, like making games based on steem, etc....
@exyle,
STEEM is becoming more and more harder to earn now! For next 27 years we all get 3 times of market supply in this currency! So, in future STEEM price will go to moon!
Cheers~
I agree with your assessment. That is what I see also. The number of people coming to the STEEM blockchain is diluting the daily reward pool. Couple that with entrepreneurs all seeking SP, and it gets difficult.
That is why SMTs are so exciting. There will be platforms on here that allow for blogging that reward people in the SMT. Of course, these are paired with STEEM so that is how people can earn STEEM without competing with the dapps.
Just to verify because I read about it but I'm not 100% sure.
Let's say Dlive had an SMT.
When I vote on content on dlive (and they only show payouts in SMT's), would my vote also give the person I vote for an underlying amount of STEEM as well as the SMT?
Sorry to cut in... but I believe this is all correct. Here’s a couple snippets from the white paper.
The following rules are applied to determine whether tokens are votable:
• STEEM is votable for every post.
• A token is votable for a post if it appears in the post’s votable_assets.
• Otherwise, the token is not votable for this post.
• At most two tokens may be specified in votable_assets. This means that each post is voted with at most three tokens (including STEEM).
Thanks, man!
No prob. Made me realize I need to re-read that paper! There is definitely more info & details than I remember from release... I wonder when it was last revised.
I'll do the same!
There is no "competing" when people simply allocate Steem to themselves or the highest bidder. The analogy of Bitcoin mining difficulty breaks down there because mining difficulty increases for all miners, whereas there is no difficulty increase for self-voters or vote sellers. In fact it gets easier as they allocate themselves more stake with which to vote.
Wouldn't that be the same as Bitcoin miners buying better equipment with their earnings?
The moment you stop buying new equipment and start cashing out Bitcoin you can't keep up with the difficulty.
You have to reinvest and keep investing in better miners.
Ultimately leading to fewer parties being able to earn Bitcoin (but the price going up anyway).
When you compare SP to mining equipment it would be the same.
The difference on here is that it's possible to 'use/receive' someones else's SP to mine.
i think this answers my question.
No, nothing like buying mining equipment. Mining equipment gets obsoleted as difficulty rises, there is only a window of operational profitability which declines over time. Self voters only increase their share of issuance perpetually with no ongoing costs or window of profitability.
does this hurt the system?
Yes. Over time more and more of the budget will be lost to unproductive rent seeking.
Most people aren’t here for the STEEM. They are here for the USD.
You can’t pay your bills and groceries with STEEM, you pay them with fiat.
Agree, you can't yet.
But selling 1000 STEEM for 10 cent last year for $100 USD or selling it now for $2300 (@ $2,30) is a big difference.
And that 1000 STEEM from last year was a lot easier earned than a 1000 STEEM now + that 1000 STEEM could have generated more STEEM in a year.
I'm trying to be honest about how I see things.
Everyone can decide what to do with it.
Mark @exyle You are Correct and the People that leave STEEM and go into FIAT may very well be disappointed in a year or Two that they did not stay Powered UP.......
True .
That's the logic brother, you are right with this assertion, the more people coming on board the more it would be hard getting more payout, since those investing in the system is smaller compared to the people trying to earn it all. I believe , just like you have said, it will be more difficult getting more steem in the nearest future so the desire to hold on to the steem you have at present should not be over emphasize. Long live steemit, long live #scaredsoul.
I perfectly understand your point when it comes to Steem price. The higher price, tougher it gets to earn Steem. With increasing number of Steemit members it gets even tougher.
I agree with you! For some people it’s hard to admit, but one of the reasons it’s much tougher now is delegation to voting bots. I noticed many people are not only powering down, more and more people also delegate to voting bots. This leads to lower numbers of real people voting the contents. This also leads to lower curation rewards. Most of the rewards go to voting bots. They don’t even upvote you within first 30 min. where you could get most of the curation rewards and if the do, they upvote you with $1.5 for every 1.00 sbd you pay them. They are getting more and more greedy, like it or not.
When it comes to record paid content, I say “WOW”. Unfortunately forget about it today, unless you buy votes, it’s imposible to get this number.
Great post though!