Why Prep?

This post is inspired by an article on Medium by a hydrologist who explains the calculations performed in flood plain risk analysis, and uses that as an illustration for discussing the risk analysis of violent nationwide revolutions in the US. He then continues to describing the global incidence of wars, revolutions, government collapses, and other major disasters. However, while he mentions it briefly in his conclusions, I think he overlooks the most probable reason most people take any steps to prepare for emergencies.

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I currently live in the part of the world where winter happens. We have experienced impassable roads, power outages, and water pipes freezing. We also had a minor, but nonetheless perceptible, earthquake a couple years ago. While we have not suffered a forest fire directly, we have experienced severe smoke due to fires all around us in this region. In addition, I grew up in the Midwest where we also had tornadoes and other severe storm events. I remember the news showing spring flood sandbagging on the Red River between the Dakotas and Minnesota almost every year. We have all doubtless seen major cities like New Orleans and New York City devastated by hurricanes. And this is just from the perspective of the US. Natural disasters are a high-probability event. I encourage everyone to be prepared for a week-long disaster on this scale, regardless of how you feel about prepping for the apocalypse. Even the US government offers useful advice here.

I have also lived through unemployment in an economic recession. I was not as prepared as I would have preferred to be, but I was better prepared than some. These are both very real risks, both unemployment and large-scale economic disasters. Take what steps you can, especially since government handouts are not a guarantee. If you have stored food for a disaster, it can also help you through tight financial times. Save an emergency fund. get out of debt NOW so it doesn't add insult to injury later. Dave Ramsey has solid advice on financial planning, and I know his books are available at the library where I work, so they are probably available through yours as well if you'd rather not buy them yourself.

As discussed in the article mentioned at the beginning, totalitarian police states, armed revolutions, wars, and other violent upheavals do have a non-zero risk factor, and while it's far less likely to occur, the risk changes based on historical data and the changing circumstances wherever you may live. Consider riots in cities as a microcosm of what such a conflict may entail. Threats may range from military, SWAT teams, beat cops, violent gangs, irrational angry crowds, agents provocateur, and starving people who did not prepare beforehand, but think you owe them because you did. This level of disaster is severe, but people have encountered it around the world many times in just the past century alone. Even if you are not in a theater of war, expect shortages and rationing.

Lastly, there are the hypothetical apocalypse-level disasters. No one could survive a gamma ray burst that sterilizes the entire planet, so that isn't worth bothering with in the first place, but the Yellowstone supervolcano is one potential global catastrophe that could occur. How well could you cope with such complete chaos and destruction in food, transportation, utilities, etc? How much effort would you want to devote to such a low-risk but high-impact scale of event? I couldn't possibly begin to tell you where to start, but if that is a concern for you, you should start now.

What can be done to prepare for such events? There are some obvious steps.

• Store some water, both for hydration and hygiene.
• Store some food and the means to prepare it.
• Keep an extra reserve of medication on hand, prescription and over-the-counter alike.
• Consider buying a generator
• Consider buying a water filter system.
• Store some fuel for your vehicle and make a plan in case you need to evacuate. Plan alternate routes.

In the event of a larger-scale disaster, more issues come into play.

• Do you need to hunt or defend yourself? You need a rifle and ammunition. You also need to regularly train beforehand.
• Do you expect hostile invasion, whether mobs or military? How will you make yourself less of a target in the first place? What can you do evacuate under such circumstances?
• What can you save for barter in case of economic collapse?
• Can you devote the time and space to agriculture for long-term sustenance?

No matter the scale of the disaster you face, the most important preparation steps you can probably take are getting to know your neighbors. Learn who can be trusted, who is a natural leader, and yes, who is a sketchy scoundrel who could pose a threat. Government may be overwhelmed or even collapse, but society remains. How can you build a stronger community now, and how can you help your community in the event of the improbable or inconceivable? Comment below with your suggestions or personal experiences!