What does the planned US withdrawal from Syria mean for the Kurds on the ground?

US President Donald Trump wants to pull the American troops from the areas east of the Euphrates in Syria. Preferably by the end of the year, they are too expensive. Trump wants the Gulf States to get involved to enforce the division of Syria. They are to pay and train a new troop of 30,000 soldiers. However, the chances of the Gulf states are low, because they have lost their influence in Syria and are involved in a murderous war in Yemen. What will the Kurds do? What will become of your Democratic Federation project in Syria if the protective hand of the Americans no longer exists there?

The US attempt to intervene directly and militarily in Syria lasted almost four years. The attempt failed, and now the Americans want to leave the Syrian territory as quickly as possible. So the Syrian Kurds need to rethink their situation and revise their lofty goals. They need to think about how they can keep some of their political and administrative achievements.

The emerging trend will not cause any joy amongst the Kurds, who are considered the closest friends of the US armed forces in Syria. However, they have too closely linked their plans for the future with the presence of the 2,000 American special forces who are now busy packing their bags and preparing to retreat.

For the Syrian state, the current federal structure in the north of the country is not an insurmountable obstacle to the future structural planning of the state. The armed Kurdish forces will not be able to compete with the Syrian army should the Americans turn their backs on the Euphrates valley. The Pentagon had given its Kurdish allies the illusion that the US military presence in Syria would take long enough to adequately consolidate the foundations of a future Kurdish state. Several Kurdish delegations made a pilgrimage to the Pentagon, where they always heard high praise. Their fighters were praised, who - equipped with US military equipment - from a militia developed into a tightly organized army. With the support of the US Air Force they took the hardest fights on themselves and moved from a successful battle against the "Islamic State" to the next: from Ain al Arab / Kobani, to Rakka and the surrounding area of ​​Hasakeh and finally to Deir Ez-Zor ,

Even before Donald Trump announced that he would bring his "boys" home, doubts had arisen among the Kurds. Former Foreign Minister Rex Tillerson had tirelessly knocked on the doors in Ankara and tried to negotiate with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Tillerson instructed his advisor Rich Austen to probe the situation in Ankara. Austen, who is married to a Turkish woman and known for his proximity to Ankara, was supposed to put relations with the Turkish government back in order. And he should convince the Kurds to leave Manbij. The goal of the project was to manage the area near the Syrian-Turkish border together with Turkey. Thus, the "re-Arabization" in the entire Euphrates Valley should be promoted with a simultaneous retreat of the Kurds and a second Afrin be avoided.

Erdogan repeated his threats that he would march to Rakka, Tell Abiyad or Qamishli, which unsettled the Kurds. Her worries did not dissipate when Tillerson retired from the political scene. On the contrary, they were further reinforced by the surprise announcement by the US administration that the US military units from Syria should be withdrawn as soon as possible. In addition, a reliable orientation of the American strategy for Syria was obviously lacking.

The Americans rushed to present their plan for an exit strategy. It was planned to set up armed groups from among the Arab tribes that settled east of the Euphrates. These should control the freedom created by the departure of the Americans. These included the US military bases along the Euphrates, which are close to the Beirut-Damascus-Tehran route. And to prevent the Syrian state from entering the territories, the new force should also take over the areas from which the Kurdish formations were to be withdrawn northwards.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the US has asked Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt to fill the vacuum in the areas east of the Euphrates River after the US withdrawal. According to Trump, they should either finance a $ 4 billion reconstruction program for the region (east of the Euphrates) or send troops there to recruit and train the planned force of 30,000 men from among the Arab tribes. The task of the Arab soldiers was to supervise an area three times the size of Lebanon. They should prevent the Syrian army from advancing there. Well-informed supporters of the regional opposition assured Al Akhbar that currently no more than 6,000 fighters have been recruited.

The Americans are in such a hurry that they even sought a talk with Blackwater's killers' founder, the "Prince" Eric Prince, whom they met while still living in the Emirates. If it is up to the determined desire of US President Donald Trump, the US troops should withdraw from Syria within six months, at the latest by the end of this year (2018). How well-informed circles confirmed "Al Akhbar" is equivalent to an agreement within the US administration. The agreement was reached after Trump could not be persuaded to extend the deployment of American associations on Syrian soil for another two years.

However, the US strategy has little chance of success. Recourse to the mercenaries of the "Prince" indicates that the US has few options and opportunities to select and recruit soldiers among the Arab allies in general and specifically among the tribes east of the Euphrates. Years of attempts to build a powerful force among the ranks of these tribes have failed.

The US secret service tried to set up a "New Syrian Army" led by Colonel Muhannad al-Talla. Their recruits were defeated in their first fight with Al Tanf (in the border triangle Iraq-Jordan-Syria) and scattered in all directions. About two years ago, dozens of these soldiers were slaughtered by IS fighters as they attempted to parachute into Al Hamadan Airport. The best thing that could be achieved was the recruitment of former IS elements by Ahmed Abu Khaoula of the military council Deir Ez-Zor. The first task of the newly recruited will be to fight their former combatants and prevent them from returning.

Even the Gulf States, which offered Trump the choice of either paying for or training for the new army from among the Arab tribes, have de facto lost the ability to recruit in Syria since (the defeat of combat groups in Aleppo). The Syrian army also captured the last bastions of "Dscheisch Al-Islam" and "Feilak al-Rahman" in the eastern Ghouta. Cooperation with these formations in the areas east of the Euphrates had been stopped four years ago when the "Islamic State" (Daesh) had destroyed them or forced them to leave the areas. Even the alternative plan of (the Jordanian, kl) King Abdullah II, according to which the Bedouin tribes east of the Euphrates should be connected with the Kingdom of the Hashemites (Jordan, kl), stagnates for lack of US support. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are also deeply involved in the Yemen War.

So far, they have not presented a quick exit strategy and can not seriously engage elsewhere and effectively. Egypt, on the other hand, is bound in the Sinai Peninsula and nationwide in an anti-terrorist war against the "IS". In any case, Cairo rejects military action against the Syrian army on principle and keeps all channels open with Damascus to exchange high-level delegations on security issues. Alternatively, to involve Turkey, is not up for debate. Ankara wants to crack down on the Kurds allied with the US and destroy them. In addition, Turkey has benefited from its cooperation with Russia through the Astana process.

So there are many obstacles to Trump's exit plan, which he also wants to detain after the air raids on Syria (14 April 2018). Trump wants the withdrawal from Syria because of high stationing costs and other domestic factors.