Brexit 'tail risk' still prevalent

- JP Morgan Chase

6 September 2018, 01:11

According to analysts at JP Morgan Chase, end-of-year risks still exist in Brexit talks, and stress points are likely to resume as the calendar begins to wind down towards the final Brexit date next March.

Key quotes

"We see the tail-risk around Brexit intensifying into year end.

This is likely to remain as the main concern for investors.

Our house view on the probability of a no deal is 20%, with a base case of a negotiated withdrawal agreement at 60%.

In our view from a banks perspective, the immediate near term risk is that an agreement that removes the risk of a no deal slips into 2019."