Remembering Kawhi Leonard's 2017 Playoff Run

aarontheg (25)in #kawhi • 6 years ago (edited)

Kawhi Leonard's 2017 Playoff Run

I awoke this morning to find out that there was a rumor going around that the Spurs were finalizing a deal that would send Kawhi Leonard to the Raptors. Toronto will receive Leonard and Danny Green in exchange for DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected 2019 first-round draft pick (1). Not even an hour later, the deal was agreed upon. This gives Spurs fans a final conclusion in what has been a very frustrating 2018.

After the trade was made I remembered that I actually wrote a piece last summer highlighting why I believe Kawhi was the best player in the league. It was an audition piece to be a writer for Pounding the Rock (PtR), the official SB Nation blog of the San Antonio Spurs. J.R. Wilco (Editor in Chief at PtR) and I had been exchanging emails in which we discussed the possibility of me joining PtR. Unfortunately for me, this never happened. Additionally, I never posted this piece anywhere, so I figured that there's no time like the present. Here is my article why I believe Kawhi Leonard was the best player of the 2017 season. I hope you (the reader) enjoy it.

Kawhi Leonard: The League’s Real Best Player

Recently, a basketball blog named Nobody Touches Jordan released their take on the 20 greatest conference finals runs of all time (2). Two Spurs made the list, but for my money, if our cornrow-haired hero had played out the series vs. Golden State, he would have cracked this list.

As Bruno Passos of PtR pointed out, Kawhi had one of the best playoff runs we have ever seen (3). To put into perspective how well Kawhi did this postseason, let’s compare his run to other notable runs in playoff history, with 2 of those runs being mentioned in the above article:

Kawhi Win Shares.png

As you can see, Kawhi amassed as many win shares in the 2017 playoffs as Hakeem Olajuwon did in his (notorious) ‘95 run, which is really saying something, since Hakeem is a consensus Top 5 Center all time, and he was in his prime that season. The blog I mentioned earlier even has a case for Hakeem being the greatest Center ever (4). So for Kawhi to accomplish this is no small feat. He also amassed more Win Shares than everyone else on this list, with one exception.

Much is made about LeBron’s 2015 run, when he carried what many would call a weak team to the Finals. Despite that, Kawhi still amassed nearly as many Win Shares in his shorter run this postseason. Win Shares of course are not an end all be all stat, but speaking of them, Kawhi lead the NBA in playoff WS/48, and is one of only 7 players in league history to hit a WS/48 mark over .300 while playing at least 400 minutes (5). The other 6? Cliff Hagan, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, George Mikan, Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James. And he actually had the highest TS% of all those players. With all that being said, it’s not illogical to ask this question:

Is Kawhi Leonard the best player in the league?

If he is, the best way to judge or compare players is via the playoffs, since those games count for much more than the regular season. Additionally, a player like LeBron saves his best for the playoffs and has been doing so for years.

With the 2017 Finals reaching its conclusion Monday night, the superlatives came running for newly crowned Finals MVP Kevin Durant, as many fans and pundits dubbed Durant the best player in the league. Others claimed that that title still belonged to LeBron. A few might try to argue Curry. Additonally, one can’t forget about the 2 leading MVP candidates in James Harden and Russell Westbrook.

One main component that hurts Kawhi is the fact that the Spurs play in slower paces than the Warriors, Rockets, Thunder, and Cavs. This hinders his numbers, so in the eyes of the average fan, his raw numbers aren’t on par with said individuals. I believe this to be complete bologna.

Let’s look at the pace of the games Kawhi played in vs. the 4 other aforementioned players:

Kawhi PAce.png

As one can see, the amount of possessions that the Spurs played per game is less than the teams of the other players. I threw in Usage % for good measure. Westbrook’s Usage % is truly a class all its own. Kawhi playing at slower paces and not using the possessions he does get as much as the others is no doubt going to hurt his numbers.

Even if we look at the stats as they are, Kawhi’s stats actually might appear to be better than Harden’s at face value. Westbrook’s other-worldly scoring stats were clearly the product of his ridiculous Usage % plus the faster pace the Thunder played in. And his rebounding stats might even appear to be the product of the Thunder padding his stats, as an article from The Big Lead states (6). The aforementioned article also mentions how his defense has been lacking this season.

Defensively, Kawhi is the best defender out of these players. As this CBSSports article pointed out, some teams actually game-planned to play “4-on-4” against Leonard, that is- take him out of the play as best you can, so that he can’t affect your offense negatively (7). Despite this, as J.R. Wilco pointed out, opposing teams didn’t do it all that much, but the fact that some teams even did it at all this season speaks volumes about Kawhi as a threat defensively (8).

Westbrook just can’t hold a candle to Kawhi on that end, and Westbrook sacrificed defense for rebounds (6), which were already stat padded to begin with. Simply put, we will more than likely never see teams gameplan for the defense of a Harden, Curry, or Westbrook. And as Brian Windhorst of ESPN pointed out, LeBron had a bad year on defense (9). The Cavs were ranked in the bottom 10 of Defensive Rating, and were 20th in the league in ppg allowed. Now of course not all of that is because of LeBron, but it's hard for me to buy that any team with Kawhi on it would have a bottom 10 finish in Defensive Rating.

Now KD has played excellent defense this season. By all accounts, this was his best season on defense. He posted career highs in Block %, DRB %, and DBPM. Had he played the same amount of minutes (over 3000) that he did in the 2012 season, he would have posted a career high in Defensive Win Shares. Durant also finished 6th in the league in Defensive Rating, and had a great overall Finals performance, which yes includes his defense. The Warriors were #11 in ppg allowed but were #2 in D Rating, and were 2.7 pp 100 better with Durant on the floor. The Spurs were #2 in Points per game allowed, and #1 in Defensive Rating, as Kawhi finished the season 9th in Defensive Rating (just below Durant), and the Spurs were 1.9 pp 100 better defensively with him on the floor.

Given the fact that Kawhi had a bigger Offensive load this season, most would agree that Kawhi’s defense has gone down, while Durant’s defense has gotten better. Though it is close, the deal breaker for me is that I don’t think Durant would lock down Harden to 0-5 shooting like Kawhi did in game 2 of the WCSF. Durant did play good defense on LeBron at times in the Finals, but I don’t think he would have defended Harden as well as Kawhi, and Kawhi would have played good man defense on LeBron as we have already seen him do (10). That said, I would give the defensive edge to Kawhi, though it is close. Besides, Kawhi has the best man to man defense out of any of these individuals.

Moving to the other side of the court, Kawhi scores more per possession/per shot than the others:

Kawhi Points per shot.png

These stats are not end all-be-all, as there really is no way to prove a hypothetical. But I included it because it does if nothing else show that playing under Pop’s system one will have their stats lowered than if they played elsewhere. More than likely, these players would have better efficiency, but I’m not sold they’d be as efficient as Kawhi. Their stats would definitely be lowered, as the Spurs former big three already pointed out. But it does, if nothing else, show that under Pop’s instruction, Kawhi or really any player for that matter cannot accumulate monster stats like averaging numbers in the neighborhood of 30-10-10. Plus, it is common sense that a player that plays on a faster paced team with a higher usage % will probably have better stats than a player that is on a slower paced team with a lower usage%.

To highlight this fact, here’s how these players’ stats look per single possession:

Kawhi per possession.png

Yes you read that right- Kawhi scores more points, grabs more rebounds, and gets more steals than both LeBron and Durant per possession. Westbrook is the only player on this list that gets more points per possession than Kawhi, but as aforementioned this is due in large part to his ridiculous Usage Percentage. Those on the LeBron wagon might argue that the big difference in playmaking is enough to overshadow the small differences in points, rebounds, and steals. One thing they might overlook though is that Kawhi actually has a better Assist to Turnover ratio than LeBron by a count of 2.09:1 to 1.95:1. Additionally, the difference on defense for Kawhi and LeBron is pretty significant, as LeBron had a bad defensive season.

Efficiency

The last point I wanted to make in the statistical comparison of Kawhi vs. The other players was his efficiency. Not only did Kawhi average less Turnover’s per possessions (as well as less fouls) than the other players in this comparison, he also had better shooting splits than the others (though Durant’s TS% was marginally better, but I’ll touch on this in the context section). Kawhi is one of 4 players in history to shoot 50-40-90 while averaging 27+ points per game, and is the only player to do it past the 1st round (11). This of course being accompanied by the fact that he’s the best defender of the other players in question.

Context

I know many may say that Leonard is a “system player” and thus this helps his offense and his defense. But are we really supposed to just take this at face value but ignore that Westbrook basically has Carte Blanche to use all the possessions in the world, thus boosting his stats? What about LeBron playing with Irving, who put up 29-4-4 in the Finals, as well as the fact that LeBron gets to basically have the ball in his hand for the whole game? If Leonard is a “system player” what about James Harden having the best season of his career in their new system?

Durant and Curry also have the luxury of playing next to each other, plus having a magnificent shooter in Klay Thompson. They play at an extremely fast tempo, and this helps to spread defenses. Can you imagine if Kawhi played with someone like Durant or Curry, much less with an added shooter in Thompson? And how can we forget Draymond Green?

Don’t get me wrong, I love Aldridge, and I defend his honor whenever needed. But the fact stands that he is not the scorer of a Durant or Curry, or even Thompson. Aldridge cannot pour it on like Kyrie.

Simply put, if Kawhi was in the shoes of a Harden or Westbrook, he would have many more possessions at a faster tempo, and it wouldn’t shock me if he put up numbers in the ballpark of 30-8-8 with shooting percentages of 46-34-88 (lower percentages would probably come with a higher Usage rate). On the other hand, Kawhi with a dynamic second option would help distribute the defensive focus, and his already insane efficiency would rise even more.

Conclusion

Per possession offensively, nobody is as good as Kawhi in the league, as already demonstrated. Despite him never averaging 4 assists per game for a season, he averaged 4.6 assists per game in these playoffs, so you can bet that his passing ability will continue to improve. And Defensively, Kawhi is still a top 5 player on that side of the ball. He did things this postseason that only the games’ greatest players have done.

To finish things off, I’ll leave you with this table of just a few of the advanced stats from the 2017 playoffs:

Kawhi Last Picture.png