RE: Ray Dalio's Economics Principles
Great sharing, @culgin!
Paul Krugman also once put it in his book that, “Productivity isn't everything, but in the long-run it is almost everything”.
Having said that, let's look at the smallest possible economic unit that's driving changes in aggregate productivity: the large and small businesses.
Recently in US, unemployment rate falls to 3.9% as 164,000 jobs get created. On a more negative note, these businesses might struggle to fill vacancies as competition rises to gain talents required for productivity. We also shouldn't neglect the effect of crypto investment scene, which has seen more youngsters hoping to get rich quick rather than working full time. I think there should be some impact given how the "Gen Z" perceives life.
I expect a recession in late 2020 if things continue as they are. Ultimately, to have a good economic growth, I think the challenge is for government to focus on the long run and to identify these market frictions that are causing most businesses to lag behind. If not, sooner or later the growth will meet a "speed-bump" and slow down to equilibrium.
Cheers,
@mrblueberry
Thanks for reading and your comments! I think in this day and age, individuals, like you and me, are the smallest economic unit. The gig economy is about 34% of US workforce in 2017 and is expected to grow to 43% by 2020. If cryptocurrencies were to boom, the decentralized workforce will likely expand at a much faster rate.
Personally, I do not have a date in mind when a recession will come, but it is always good to be prepared for one.
Exactly. If the trend of decentralisation becomes mainstream, the future will be very different. The foundation of many models will be disrupted and a lot of existing central authorities in different industries will be affected. I'm actually looking forward to that happening; the faster the better haha!