IntroduceYourself : Who I Am And Why I Think It Is Likely That The Bear Market Has Ended
Hello everyone !
My first priority in life for the last few years has been to find a way to live independantly and not be chained to a desk at some company working a job that I am not passionate about.
I first discovered Bitcoin on some libertarian forums when it was under 1$, but as I was more in the gold-backed currency camp back then I unfortunately did not invest anything and forgot all about it for several years.
This is how I feel about that decision today :
Mid-2017 I saw in a news article that BTC had hit 2K, and finally started to invest in cryptocurrencies.
When the bear market hit us in early 2018, I switched from HODLing to more actively trading, and have been working on improving my skills ever since.
About 7 months ago, I quit my job to trade cryptocurrencies full time.
Looking through the main tags on Steemit, I quickly felt at home and have decided to share my current thoughts on the market with the community.
I trade BTC/USD on Bitmex as well as the Alt/BTC ratios on Binance.
I rely mostly on horizontal and diagonal trendlines, as well as fractals, volume, moving averages and BolingerBands.
For my introduceyourself Post I thought I'd share a post from the r/BitcoinMarkets subreddit that I made back in mid-April, as it sums up my current broader view of the cryptocurrency markets :
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I think it is more likely we'll be above 7-8K than below 5K by the end of the year.
A few reasons that make me lean this way :
Bakkt, a possible ETF and other news of that kind that are on the horizon provide all of the narratives people need to allow their FOMO to run rampant again
I think the market has already shown that it is hyped for the LTC halvening in August (LTC lead a couple of rallies this year and already did a 4x from the lows)
The BTC halvening coming up in June 2020
The convincing break of the 200 Daily MA on BTC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zr4OnetB/The volume on the total crypto market cap is higher than it was in December 2017
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EWqu5MlN/
The volume on this chart is from CoinMarketCap, so it includes alot of exchange that fake their volume.
However, relevant to me is the comparison, so unless there is way more fakery going on today than there was in December 2017 I still see this as a very relevant indicator.
Since early March the smaller Alts have been breaking all kinds of trendlines on (legit) ATH Volume on Binance
The general public has for the most part completly written off crypto. Even my friends who are very much into crypto are sleeping on them after the initial pain since we broke down from 6K. Historicaly, this has been the case in post-bottoming periods.
A comparison with the last bear market, which I have been looking at since the middle of last year :
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tjdaleho/
Fractals have served me well throughout the bear market, which is why I place alot of value into this kind of comparison.
Most notably, we broke through the trendline of death (the red and pink lines) that acted as resistance throughout the whole bear market. The last bear market also ended when this trendline was broken as can be seen in the above chart.
Assuming that I am correct, the interesting question now is which one of the green circles we currently are in in comparison to the last bear market from the above chart.
=> If the first one we could still have a retrace below 4K (though not making a lower low) before the true bounce that ignites the bullrun happens.
=> If the second one we could still pump to anywhere between 6-8k before having the for some much awaited significant retrace, painting a lower low arround 5-6K.
=> If I am wrong and we did have one more leg down below 3K, BTC and Alts even more so would be at such ridiculous levels (<80$ ETH ?! <25$ LTC ?! <40$ XMR ?!) that I'd be very happy for that opportunity to fill my bags further, but for the first time since early 2018 I am more convinced that we've bottomed (~70%) than not.
A big confirmation of my thinking would be breaking through the heavy resistance in the 6-7K range, as well as seeing a big increase in volume on BTC on the ''clean'' exchanges.
I am currently 85% back into crypto (with my HODL stack) and will put in the last part when we convincingly break 6.8K or in case I am wrong and we do make a lower low.
Good luck to my fellow veterans out there, I think we've made it through the war !
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In my next few posts I will be giving a more short-term analysis of the market and how I am currently trading it.
I thank you very much for your attention and would be delighted to receive your feedback !
DISCLAIMER : This is not investment advice and should not be traded upon. It is merely my intent to bring to the attention of people data that they might not have looked at before, so that they can interpret it for themselves and make their own decisions.
Do not be this guy :
I wish I understand ANYTHING past the first few parags. about how you kick yourself for not investing back in the day LOL
I'm still on the fence about whether the gov't will control crypto (or already do).
I haven't studied that topic enough to even have an intelligent opinion.
Thanks
Thank you for your feedback !
Sometimes I forget how much time it took me to have an understanding of the more technical data of the charts. I will try to give more explanations and make it more understandable to someone who has not studied the subject in my future posts.
On your point with weather the gov't or the powers that be control crypto, I am on the fence about this myself.
I've seen way too few opposition from the monopoly owners that crypto is supposed to replace as of yet, let's not forget that these people have killed heads of states in order to retain that monopoly in the past.
I will make a separate post on this issue within the next few weeks.
Hi and welcome here! When I started on steemit, my biggest problem was to find interesting people to interact with. So, to help newcomers getting started I created a directory with other interesting and or talented steemians to follow or interact with. Feel free to check it out at https://www.steemiandir.com I am sure it will help you find like-minded people. Enjoy your stay here and do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions!
Welcome to Steemit.
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Thank you for your welcome @discernente
Will be on the look for yoir next post. Good stuff
Posted using Partiko Android
Thank you my man ! Glad you found it interesting.
Welcome to Steemit. I'd be interested in seeing how you see the future of Steem based on past movements.
The US$9 price was a strong outlier as far as I am concerned, as people were quite bullish then. But there's been a mass exodus since then, so who knows where it will head in the future.
I believe that rally that lead to the all-time-high was cut short by the beginning of the bear market and might have had one or two more legs in it had the bullrun lasted a month longer.
As to the future, I am of the opinion that most projects will pump again regardless of fundamentals (most traders on Binance do not really know what coins they invest in). You also see this in how Steem rallyed during the last altcoin season arround February and March this year.
With a higher Steem price and higher rewards, the platforms built upon Steem should have another influx of new users as they did in the last bullrun.
Weather or not Steem will be able to outcompete other projects in terms of price gains or build a much higher floor for the next bear market will in my opinion depend on what the development team does with that opportunity.
I will be making a post in the next few weeks with a more detailed technical analysis of the Steem chart.
Thanks alot for stopping by !
Are you planning to invest in steem? 😀
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I already have ! :-)
I believe that in the next crypto bull market Steem will also receive it's share of love along with the rest of the market.
In that scenario, new users should also be incentivized to join the platforms built upon Steem.
Weather the teams running the development of the platforms will be able to capitalize on that opportunity remains to be seen, so I consider it a higher risk investment than BTC for example.
But the upside potential is quite big in my opinion seeing as Steemit currently only has a few hundred thousand active users.
I will be posting a more in depth technical analysis of the Steem charts within the next few weeks.
Volume is a funny thing. I'm always amused how it never quite predicts the changes in price, but it always creates some sort of volatility. Which can only be good!
Looking at the previous bear market, we can see that it ended which a very high volume capitulation, followed by an even higher volume buying candle. The volume of these two candles surpassed the highest volume in the previous bullrun.
This is now also the case, which makes me lean towards the high volume pointing to a market cycle change to bullish, not just increased volatitly ahead in my opinion.
Only time will tell though !
As a creator I just stay on the steady course of creating content. I'm not trying to figure out the ebbs and flow of a market.
Thank you for stopping by.
That's another, probably alot less stressful and more fulfilling way to go about it.
Personally, I try to time the markets in order to buy my personal freedom so that I have more time to devote to content creation among other things.
I invested in some companies but they all robbed my money after huge loss i am in trading market and hodling some amount of diffrent coins and hoping that this hodl amount pay me back in future.
I m sorry for your loss !
If the future plays out the way I think it will you should get plenty of gains within the next few years, but only time will tell in the end.
it seems it really ended!!