Idlib Offensive To Start Soon

A leaflet dropped by the Syrian Airforce instructing the civilians to leave the Western Aleppo and Idlib through the three official government crossings

With the 4th Division withdrawing from the East Syria (Homs/Deir ez-Zor) and taking a position in the Aleppo area and Syrian Airforce dropping leaflets, we can expect a major offensive aimed at taking control over the areas controlled by the rebels.

Syria LiveUAmap

Looking at the recent bombardments by the Syrian and Russian airforce and artillery, I expect that attack on Idlib starts from four directions. From the South:

1. From Kafr Nabudah towards Al' Ankawi. Once captured, the Syrian forces will move towards Al Barah
2. From Jarjanz towards Maarat al-Numan. Once captured, the Syrian forces will move towards Saraqib along the M5 route.

And from the North:

1. From Aleppo towards Al-Rashidin. Once secured, the Syrian forces will move towards the South along the M5 route with the goal of connecting with the forces moving from the South at Saraqib.
2. From Aleppo towards Kafr Hamrah. The goal is here is to clear the pocket North of Idlib.

The movement of troops and the directions of the attacks will change depending on the progress made and the resistance the Syrian army encounters. I wouldn't be surprised that in a case of a collapse of the rebel forces a direct push towards Idlib is made by the forces attacking from either the South or the North.