Pakistan and India: Which Side of History Should the U.S. be on!

India is a vast, diverse, and rapidly advancing nation. Despite a culture that is more open to cultural pluralism, they are in constant contention with Pakistan. With both nations having access to nuclear capabilities, and the sides constantly having armed skirmishes in the contested area of Kashmir, the situation remains tense. While both nations have rampant poverty and corruption, they still direct resources to these conflicts, with Pakistan readily using proxy organizations as a means of committing terrorist tactics. India is surrounded by some of the most rabidly Islamist nations on earth, with large numbers of Afghani refugees flocking to the region in the last 17 years. India remains a regional outlier, with an ancient culture, but also a rapidly advancing economy.
While the Chinese consider their nation to be the oldest, Indians consider their culture to be the oldest. In fact, Indian culture and history extends back roughly 5,000 years (Kaey, 2011). Ancient high points for the region include being home to early Indus Valley Civilizations (the cradle of humanity), the early and late Vedic periods, and the creation of Buddhism (Kaey, 2011). The Indian subcontinent has been home to many great empires such as the Maurya Empire, some of the Kushan Empire, the Gupta Empire, and the Chola Empire in South India (Kaey, 2011). Much of Indian history is unknown due to the common practices among changes between empirical changes that involved destruction of the old guard (Kaey, 2011). Further, this is complicated by the fact that, unlike Chinese history, it is challenging to "linearize" Indian history, since it is not a succession of dynasties (Kaey, 2011). Throughout Indian history, different dynasties waxed and waned over time and their borders shifted accordingly (Kaey, 2011). This is part of the reason that dynasties such as the Gurjar-Pratihars, Pals, Cheras, Rashtrakutas, Marathas, Rajputs in Rajasthan, Chandels, Delhi Sultanates, and manyothers (Kaey, 2011). More recently, while the Americas were being explored and populated in the 1520’s, the Islamic Mughal Empire gained control of India and retained partial control over some regions completely waned in 1858 (Richards, 1995).
The Mughal Empire had reigned over the Indian subcontinent for over 300 years and had claim to many impressive feats, such as: governing nearly 25% of the world's population, ruling 3.2 million square kilometers of land, created an empire with widespread religious tolerance, education, and centralized government (Richards, 1995) (Marshal, 2011). According to Colombia University: the capital of Lahore is cited as being equal to London in trade, commerce, wealth, etc. in the 16th century (Richards, 1995) (Marshal, 2011). These two eras were clearly very different, with the official British military takeover coming because of an 1857 mutiny, where soldiers of the Bengal army shot their British officers and marched on Delhi (Marshal, 2011). This mutiny encouraged widespread rebellions of Indian civilians throughout northern and central India (Marshal, 2011). This left many British garrisons abandoned, until a brutal war deposed the final Mughal empower, who was one in a line of British puppet leaders (Marshal, 2011). At this point, Queen Victoria of England gained the title “Empress of India” (Marshal, 2011).
Today, India is a stable democracy with an 80 percent Hindu population, with a 15% Muslim population that is also one of the world’s largest Islamic communities (Heritage, 2017). Prime Minister Modi, has visited the U.S. multiple times in the last few years and has expressed about continuing this positive relationship with the new President, particularly in defense cooperation (Heritage, 2017). India has some of the most advanced technology and manufacturing sectors in the world, and simultaneously underdeveloped traditional sectors, such as lack of access to fresh water (Heritage, 2017). As the largest democracy on earth, the 2014 election had an amazing 540 million voters (Heritage, 2017). Impressively, India also has six languages that have over 50 million speakers - Hindi, Bengali, Telugu, Marathi, Tamil and Urdu (Heritage, 2017). India has even outpaced China in total megacities, and in economic growth, with a sustained average annual GDP growth of roughly 7 percent over the past five years (Heritage, 2017).
A primary source of the terrorist threat is India’s conflict with Pakistan (U.K., 2017). Recently, an Indian representative to the United Nations Human Rights Council said “Pakistan is the world’s terrorism factory” (U.K., 2017). According to the U.K. official government guide on foreign travel the three most threatening terrorist groups right now are the Lashkar-e Tayyiba (LeT), Jaish-e Mohammed, and the Indian Mujahedeen (U.K., 2017). LeT’s is a Pakistani group with operational focus on the region of Kashmir, with the larger goal of eliminating regional Indian power (Stanford, 2016). Currently, LeT exploits Hindu-Muslim tension to recruit Indian Muslims for terrorist attacks (Stanford, 2016). Jaish-e Mohammed is another Pakistan based extremist group with the ultimate aims of uniting Kashmir with Pakistan, and to remove foreign military forces from Afghanistan (NCTC, 2013). Indian Mujahideen (IM) has vague goals seeking redress for violence committed against Indian Muslims (Fair, 2011). IM has well established ties to transnational Islamist groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Al Qaeda, as well as Pakistani government intelligence (Fair, 2011).
​ I have chosen LeT as the group to focus on, due to their role as the perpetrators of the largest Indian terror attack in recent history, and more broadly as a highly active terrorist organization that works in close collusion with the Taliban, Mujahideen, and Al Qaeda (Stanford, 2016). In November 2008, LeT committed a large and concerted attack via a series of bombs and armed assaults over a period of four days where terrorists captured and assaulted five location in Mumbai, India (Stanford, 2016). LeT was founded in 1990 by Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, ostensibly as the military wing of Markaz-ad-Dawa-wal-Irshad (MDI), a Pakistani Islamist organization (Stanford, 2016). MDI group ascribed exclusively to the idea that the foundation for all juris-prudence and government should be the Koran and early Hadith’s, known as Ahl-e-Hadith (AeH) (Stanford, 2016). In 2002 the two groups separated; LeT was first active in the fight against the Soviet presence in Afghanistan but changed its focus to the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir when the state rebelled against Indian control in the early 1990s (Stanford, 2016). Since the early 1990’s, LeT has received funding and supported from the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) (Stanford, 2016).
LeT is just one of many terrorist groups that Pakistan uses as proxy forces to foment discontent and instability from within India (Bajoria, 2010). LeT has described their violence as being a part of the larger goal of instating an Islamist caliphate on the Indian subcontinent (Stanford, 2016). LeT leader, Hafez Saeed, actively exploits Hindu-Muslim tension as a recruiting tool, and eventually as a means of convincing Muslims to commit attacks (Swami, 2008). After a 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament by a gunman, the U.S. and Pakistan both officially labelled LeT as a terrorist group, which was the act that triggered the LeT split from MDI (Stanford, 2016). The 26/11/2008 Mumbai attacks targeted Christian and Jewish tourists, ultimately resulting in 166 deaths, a resulted captured attacker, and an arrested LeT operative; both of whom testified to the extensive Pakistani ISI involvement in the Mumbai attack, and general LeT activities. (Times of India, 2009) (Stanford, 2016).
LeT leadership currently consists of:

1. Hafiz Muhammad Saeed (1990 to Present): Leader of the group since their inception. Saeed is currently carrying a $10,000,000 bounty from the U.S., which triggered widespread protests within Pakistan. Saeed is currently living as a free man in Pakistan (Stanford, 2016).
2. Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi (1990 to January 2017): The co-founder and current Supreme Commander of Operations. Lakhyi was also outed as one of the crafters of the 26/11 Mumbai attack, as well as paying one of the suicide bombers family 150,000 Pakistani Rupees (1,500 USD) for the attack. Although he was charged in a Pakistani court as a terrorist, he was released on a bail of roughly 2,300 USD in 2015, and was killed while ostensibly living as a free man in Pakistan. Currently, he is ostensibly continuing his role in terrorism, as he has for the past 27 years (Stanford, 2016).
3. Abdul Rehman Makki (1990 to Present): Abdul Rehman Makki is Hafiz Saeed’s brother-in-law and the groups second in command. Makki carries a $2 Million USD bounty, due to connections with deceased Taliban leader Mullah Omar and Ayman al-Zawahiri of Al Qaeda (Stanford, 2016).
   Beyond ISI funding, donation boxes for the Sunni organization are common place in Pakistani marketplaces, as well as funds from LeT run hospitals and schools, and even donations from international Islamist charities (BBC, 2010). Interestingly, the group gains public protection and support for several reasons, and a primary one is their social service programs as a means of proselytization and as a Muslim alternative to Christian NGO’s (Stanford, 2016). Unfortunately, the Indian internal intelligence and defense fields have a massive network within their nation that cannot be easily addressed and defeated. (Stanford, 2016). Unfortunately, India's internal security has considerable organizational issues, filled with interagency discord, corruption, and lack of political support.
   LeT is a threat to the United States, and has had many members or former trainees linked to many terrorist attacks in the U.S. and its interests abroad. Although LeT currently has recruiting efforts in many liberal western democracies, such as the U.S., they are seen as more a threat to U.S. activities in Southeast Asia than the homeland (Stanford, 2016). However, this does not discount the potential for a Mumbai style attack within our borders, which is a grave risk that is taken very seriously by analysts (Jenkins, 2013). In fact, in a 2013 hearing before the Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, an analyst from the RAND Office of External Affairs cited the following facts that the assault had required detailed planning, reconnaissance of targets, attackers who had trained for months, exercised disciplined fired control, while carrying handguns, semi-automatic rifles, hand grenades, and five improvised explosive devices (Jenkins, 2013). The fact is, a well-funded network, that has declared the U.S. and India as primary enemies, has effectively used highly trained suicide commandos, is a threat that our law enforcement and intelligence communities must take very seriously (Jenkins, 2013).
   By noting that regular LeT targets are often unguarded hotels, central train stations, hospitals, Jewish social centers, restaurants, and hotels, we can see that they are specifically targeting gatherings of innocent non-Muslims (Jenkins, 2013). In addition to the specific types of attacks, the LeT has even used open sources of televised news coverage of ongoing assaults as a means of coordinating and giving instructions to the terrorist’s mid-attack (Jenkins, 2013). This type of attack could be conducted with a small team of competent and well-armed fighters, however the U.S. has such an extensively armed police force and populace that an attack of this nature would likely be stopped in the planning stages (Jenkins, 2013). If anything, the U.S. is uniquely prepared against the greatest strength of LeT, in that they have highly trained and well-armed forces, but nobody is more highly trained or well-armed than the United States of America. (Jenkins, 2013). The primary reason LeT does not attack the west directly, is an awareness by Pakistani intelligence that they would be taking the blame for allowing such an attack to happen, which would not be in the best interest of any participatory governments or top LeT officials (Jenkins, 2013).
   The LeT does not attack the U.S. for political reasons, however splinter groups, and lone wolfs, may still be indoctrinated to act on the rhetoric of the group (Jenkins, 2013). The same factors that lend strength to this group, such as State sponsorship, also give it more constraints (Jenkins, 2013). With most of their attacks focused on Indo-Pakistani conflict, the capabilities of the Indian security and defense forces are truly the ones who will be tested (Jenkins, 2013). Our most likely route to crippling, and probably defeating this group, is to gain full cooperation of the Pakistani government, as they are likely the only ones who can decommission the organization. Although it is unlikely that the government would agree to this presently, by making efforts to propagate the idea that LeT represents a danger to the established and official government of Pakistan, we can increase the likelihood of their cooperation.
   Works Cited

Bajoria, Jayshree. (2010). Backgrounder: Lashkar-e-Taiba. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/pakistan/lashkar-e-taiba-army-pure-aka-lashkar-e-tayyiba-lashkar-e-toiba-lashkar--taiba/p17882#p1
BBC. (2010). Pakistan ‘Gave Funds’ to Group on UN Terror Blacklist,” BBC. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10334914.

Fair, Christine. (2011). Asia Policy: The Indian Mujahideen. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/india/asia-policy-indian-mujahideen/p25473

Heritage Foundation. (2017). 2017 Index of Economic Freedom. Retrieved from http://www.heritage.org/index/country/india

Jenkins, Brian Michael (2013). The Threat of a Mumbai-Style Terrorist Attack in the United States. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT391.html
Keay, J. (2011). India: A History. Revised and Updated. Grove/Atlantic, Inc. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=0IquM4BrJ4YC&oi=fnd&pg=PT17&dq=India:+A+History+by+John+Keay&ots=KNjTyfi7Je&sig=jQKxuT9owULr3Z2wkg8S49uTeMI#v=onepage&q=India%3A%20A%20History%20by%20John%20Keay&f=false
Marshal, Peter. (2017). British Indian and the Great Rebellion. BBC. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/victorians/indian_rebellion_01.shtml.com
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