Apply mental models to Crypto Currency

It's confusing for people of any level to figure out what's going on in crypto currency is right now. Predicting the future even makes fools out of experts. So I decided to apply well known mental models to Bitcoin and crypto currency in general and I'd love to get your feedback.

So far the most popular mental model has been the circle of competence. Who should you listen to? Think about what someone is good at and if they have conflicts of interest.

Another that people have liked is Thinking From First Principles. What makes a currency valuable and how would Bitcoin for example have to change to become more valuable?

You can also apply the mental model of Survivorship Bias to see how crypto index funds might not be such a great way to invest.

Let me know if this is useful and I can make others. It's better to use a mental model to understand something rather than trying to boil the whole ocean.

Please let me know what you think and if I missed any mental models.