How humanoid robots reshape steel demand
In recent years, the breakthroughs in humanoid robot technology and the acceleration of its commercialization process are having a profound impact on the global demand for industrial materials. The rise of this emerging industry not only brings about structural adjustments to the demand for traditional steel, but also gives rise to incremental markets for special steels and lightweight materials.
The outbreak of the humanoid robot industry: The boost to demand is manifested as a "structural opportunity" rather than "scale expansion"
The core structure of humanoid robots includes components such as skeletons, joints, and drive systems, with distinct hierarchical characteristics in material requirements. The steel consumption per humanoid robot ranges from 50 kilograms to 100 kilograms. Taking Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus as an example, with an expected production volume of 1 million units in 2030, Tesla alone could drive the demand for 50,000 tons to 100,000 tons of steel. However, this incremental demand should be considered in the context of the global crude steel production (approximately 1.8826 billion tons in 2024), where its direct impact is relatively limited, expected to account for only 0.02‰ to 0.06‰ of global steel demand.
It is worth noting, however, that the demand driven by humanoid robots for steel is more of a "structural opportunity" rather than "scale expansion." For instance, the demand for precision cutting wires required for harmonic reducer processing is expected to increase by 35,000 tons by 2030. Such specialty steels have significantly higher requirements for precision and wear resistance compared to ordinary construction steels, resulting in a notable increase in added value. Additionally, key components such as servo motor housings and drive shafts need to use high-strength alloy steels, which can cost 2 to 3 times more than ordinary steel. Therefore, although the overall proportion is not high, the niche market for high-value-added steels will become an important growth point for steel companies.
Differentiation of demand structure: the game between light - weight and high - strength.
The extreme requirements of humanoid robots for material properties are reshaping the structural characteristics of steel demand.
(1) The trend of lightweighting is squeezing the application space of traditional steel materials.
The demand for flexible movement of humanoid robots has given rise to the wide application of lightweight materials. The density of magnesium alloy (1.74 grams per cubic centimeter) is only 22% that of steel, and it also has better shock absorption performance, making it one of the preferred materials for robot skeletons. According to estimates, the demand for lightweight materials for humanoid robots will reach 125,000 tons by 2030, with the demand elasticity of magnesium reaching as high as 12.5%, far exceeding that of aluminum at 0.2%. This trend may squeeze the share of traditional steel in structural parts. For example, the Walker S robot of UBTECH has adopted a magnesium alloy frame to replace some steel components, reducing the weight of a single machine by 30%.
(2) The demand for high-strength special steels is growing against the trend.
In components such as joints and gears that bear high loads, special steels remain irreplaceable. For example, the flexible wheel of a harmonic reducer requires carburized steel with a fatigue strength of over 1,200 megapascals, while the cycloid wheel of an RV reducer relies on high-precision bearing steel (such as GCr15). According to relevant research, the hardware requirements of impact-resistant actuators will drive the growth in the amount of steel used for planetary roller screws. In terms of their impact resistance performance ranking, planetary roller screws (mainly made of steel) are superior to harmonic reducers (mainly made of aluminum). The popularization of this technical path may boost the demand for special steels.
(3) Give full play to the synergistic effect of composite materials.
The research and development of new materials such as carbon fiber reinforced steel matrix composites have helped steel find a balance point between lightweighting and strength. For example, the leg joints of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus Gen 2 adopt a structure with a carbon fiber-wrapped steel core, which not only meets the lightweight requirements but also maintains the torsional stiffness of the joints. Such innovations may open up new application scenarios for steel materials.
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