By ammo in this case I mean coins to dump.

After the Hardfork that will happen on Friday, March 20 everyone (almost) will receive equal amount of STEEM and HIVE.

We are already seeing posts by some of the Steemians that say they will dump STEEM for HIVE. Not to forget that the same thing will be happening on the other side. Some will dump HIVE as well.

As things looks we will see some massive market movements and instability. Get ready for a bumpy ride no matter which side you are on. We have already seen today a massive spike in the STEEM price.

What can we expect?

The users can be divided in 3 categories:

1. Dump STEEM for HIVE
2. Dump HIVE (for STEEM?)
3. Keep both

At the moment there is around 345M STEEM and 6.7 SBD. Virtual suppy 383M.

• 75M approximate STEEM to Steemit Inc
• 308M approximate STEEM hold by the community

The conclusion from the above is clear how things stand. The community has by far more ammo than Steemit Inc. If even a 30% of the community share is dumped that is around 100M STEEM. We also know that some of the largest STEEM holders will be selling as they have publicly stated, for example @blocktrades who has around 5M STEEM.

What about HIVE?

How many users will be dumping HIVE? Well this is a hard question and there is no clear answer to it. But make no mistake there will be users that will dump HIVE especially the once on exchanges seeing it as free money. Some of the Steemians will do the same. Probably somewhere around 10% to 20% of them. Also one of the TRON account just transferred 3.6M STEEM to Binance.

But there will also be a demand from the once that are swapping STEEM for HIVE.

But

Yes there is a big BUT in this math. Time is a precious thing.

How fast will everyone dump the other coin?

The overall stake balance, although not accurately know is in favorite of the new HIVE chain. The thing is most of everyone holding are powered up and they can sell them gradually over time in the next 13 weeks.

Most of the liquid STEEM from which market is form is on exchanges. Although as we know from recently not all STEEM on the exchanges is actually liquid :).

Here is the last report on STEEM on exchanges from @penguinpablo. This is 6 days old.

Exchange	STEEM
Binance	33,222,614
Upbit	21,955,969
Huobi	15,287,183
Bittrex	15,098,724
Bithumb	10,014,171
Poloniex	2,731,087
Gopax	246,085
SteemEngine	73,775
Bitvavo	2,959

A total of 98.6M.

link

At the moment almost 260M of the total 345M STEEM supply is powered UP. https://steemd.com/ . That is an amazing 75% of the total STEEM supply. An absolute record thanks to Binance and Huobi. Only 85M STEEM is liquid.

What this means is that only 25% of STEEM is liquid. Most of it, more than 65M is on exchanges. How much of these liquid coins belong to who? What will they do with them once they have both coins LIQUID? The short term price will be decided by these players.

Should more measures should be taken about the funds on exchanges and airdroping HIVE to them?

This means that those 65M are making the market for STEEM. There is much more liquid STEEM coming in the next weeks, but for now that is all. In this moment who controls the majority of those coins will control the market in this moment. The pressure will come but gradually over time. Meanwhile the market can be manipulated buy large players and people may swing on one or the other side depending from the price.

HIVE price?

This is a question mark for me as for the price to be formed we need to have markets. We already have a few exchanges announcing the listing. Binance and Huobi will support the fork to airdrop the HIVE tokens, but Binance stated this doesn't means automatic listing.

The supply of HIVE will be constrained and the liquidity on these exchanges will be low. Low liquidity means price volatility. So the HIVE token can go both ways very hard.

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Those are some of the crucial things I can think of. The overall stake power is on the community side, but it is not liquid and instantly available. This leaves open space for short terms volatility on the market. In the long run if the community side provides and there is development, probably there will be more STEEM swaping for HIVE.

Short term, prepare for a wild ride!

All the best
@dalz