The 11th hour Election
The election will be close. In the last election Biden managed to eke out a win in most battleground states by the slimmest of margins. Despite Trump currently leading in prediction markets he still has to win over votes. If he doesn’t get them through his VP pick, then it’ll be left to the campaign trail. That is a major risk since Trump is not an orator, and tough political questions have to be answered. Thus, I grade 10-9 Biden for now.
Furthermore, in regards to Ukraine, and Gaza we have entered the eye of the storm. Our geopolitical rivals Russia & China would prefer a Biden presidency for different reasons so you could imagine they’ll be on their best behavior. These conditions are favorable to the incumbent.
However, the biggest factor working against Trump from getting the independent votes by far is the vocality of some of his supporters. Many of which are white right wing “influencers”. Their arguments have fallen on demographics. There is no stopping the “browning” of America. Non-Hispanic white population will make up only 40% of the country faster than anticipated. White Evangelical Christians on the other hand are pushing for Christian Nationalism. They have combined forces to become White Christian Nationalist.
Obviously that won’t work in America. It’s just not constitutionally compliant for several reasons. This is also why America is far from its peak. Events that occur in other countries are well understood. They pop up all the time here when some groups try to centralize. True American Nationalism is very rare.
A Trump loss could ignite a violent protest. I’d expect a breakdown of the Republican party, with a MAGA Party spinoff. To understand the reason why the Republican party red waves always fall short you must indulge in some political forensics such as The Lily-white movement, and the Southern Strategy. Trump is their last hope without structural changes. If they lose, the whole Republican platform will change. What does it actually mean to be a conservative in today's America?
The Democrats could rule for a very long time.
Pictured Below: "A wide ideology gap is opening up between young men and women in countries around the world"
