NO SHORTAGE OF MACRO FACTORS

It is not just crypto specify factors that could move the market in the coming months, there is no shortage of macro factors that could do the same and the most significant is the ongoing interest rate bank central banks especially the Federal Reserve. Raising interest rate have the practice effect in making existing debt more expensive and making borrowing even more difficult. This means that industry that are most reliance on debt funding like housing and technology will be the most affected and this is exactly what we have seen so far. Last year, big tech companies start reporting significant losses of revenue, now they are starting to cut jobs and then not cutting any corners.

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Google recently announced it will be laying off 6% of it global workforce is truly unprecedented. In term of raw numbers, that's 12,000 people. This is not far from the 5% workforce cut that Microsoft is in the process of performing. In Microsoft case, the head count close to 10,000. Amazon also announced that it will be firing 18,000 employees but this is just a fracture of Amazon total employees in percentage term for now. The central bank is considered that the on going labour shortage cause a resurgence of inflation. This is still because a labor shortage employees can ask for larger pay check, this mean more spending. This is why the FED chairman Jerome Pal as been obsessed with bring the demand for labor back in line with is supply of it.

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In practice term, this means creating a recession to increase unemployment which why investor consensus around the upcoming recession is a record highs. This why the news companies of all kinds have been collectively laying off hundreds of thousands of employees have been paradoxically positive for the market. This lay off have been concentrated the most interesting rate sensitive sector namely technology. In other areas of the economy, the labor market is still extremely tight we the average pay rate well above the FED inflation target 2%. This means that the FED will have to continue raising interest rate longer until the until the rest of the economy react and this could take months. Unfortunately, investors seems to be pricing in this reality we could make the revelation that much more painful.