[Steem talk] Understanding Crypto Trading - Episode 6

Today's topic, I'm trying to talk about mentality. Some of the examples are remain in HIVE because generally there is still nothing much happened in STEEM. So, please bear with me having much case study from the other blockchain. Trust me, reading the cross posting will give you more juice because I will include what are relevent to the cross posted platform.

As the previous 5 episodes of our crypto trading course, we've been through a series of brain storming on buying the denominator, if you noticed I have always been encouraging to think ONLY crypto when doing crypto trading. The amount of USD has nothing to do with our crypto hodling. If you're going to say, if we don't look at dollar value, then how are we going to know we're in profit and sell our crypto for MONEY? My reply to you is more questions. If you did not accumulate enough crypto, how are you going to sell? Did you buy some BTC 5 years ago? So, don't argue with me, I know I'm not wrong.

Source from Pixabay

I'm very happy, finally I've got some feedback these few days ever since I started posting under Project Hope, and I really thankful to the mods and admins there for their curation. I understand that I said to you on Episode 5 is probably going to be the last post. So I give every "technical" bit of the trading method on that one post. However, there are some on going conversation of why do I do that. So, today's sequel is to answer in terms of psychology part of the "trading".

Source from Pinterest

Here, have a look at the meme and it sums it all for why would we have the past 5 episodes, and now 6. Market is repeatedly doing what it's supposed to do, all by itself. Whether you like it or not, we're going to missed a lots of opportunity. Let us break down the above meme and study how people react to price action shall we?

1. The first pair of graph stating the trendline of previous low, is broken, and now market price is rejecting from previous support. So, it's a good chance to go short with it. Market may continue to go down.
2. Few hours later, the previous low were tested a few times, broken and make a rally. Anyone who is thinking to short from the reject is now on a great loss.
3. When you zoom out the chart and take a closer look at where are we currently standing... I only have one word for you. Shit.

Ok. That's funny when you don't invest into any other financial tools, but you know it's not funny when you have a high stake into certain certain stocks. The above charts are from precious commodities, WTI oil price. Note that they don't tell you the denominator is supposed to be the USD. They make you think the PRODUCT, that crude oil is the denominator, they make you use USD to buy that crude oil. So you have always been measuring VALUE based on USD instead of the product itself! You will lose your head thinking of when is the bottom of the crude price. But one thing for sure, they have always fixed the USD on the left side, and product on the right side.

Source from Tradingview

This is the steem/sbd chart. This chart is the direct comparison between STEEM and SBD price. Without the USD anywhere, you have moments of clarity. You either hold SBD or you hold STEEM. You see, there's no way we can guess how far a crypto can fall(out of sky), and there's no way we can guess when is the crypto going to "moon", especially when you put a DOLLAR into the denominator. You will start to wonder when can I cash out and when can I put my money in. And in the end, you get yourself stuck buying the top and selling at the bottom. That's because? Back to Episode 5, no high is higher, and no low is lower. There is always a better bargain to buy from, why not save some cash and wait for the next low. No high is higher? I know bitcoin is at 10k now, do you want to sell all of them? We all know what happened that year right?

Once again, this is my #hive wallet. In 2 days, market has been through from 0.20 all the way to 0.40 and come all the way down to 0.15. Did you catch any of the action? We will tentatively treat this as the end of discussion until I find someone interested to know more of how this kind of blind trading can bring extra wealth in just using 5 minutes of my time. So much faster than composing this post that took me hours to find examples and making screenshots. I will make a spreadsheet to explain this is just a mathematics game. As @joelsegovia mentioned he noticed I've been bias trying to hold more HIVE, but without HBD it's impossible for me to trade. Well, who has with the current situation at 10% debts? So, what am I doing is? Buy HBD with little amount of HIVE. Note that the bottom trade is a new order, to buy 2HBD with 10Hive. Haha.

And to further answering why would I bias STEEM or HIVE when the price is low? Well, below is the "answer".

Like magic!!! Where is the STEEM payout? It's just how the system balance itself. We will come back to discuss what happened to HBD and SBD on the next episode if there's a demand.

Stay safe and stay home fellow buddy steemians! We can't afford to fall sick, until one day they do aways with the bank currencies! For now, we will grab as much crypto as we can to secure our future.

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Previous Episodes
Part 5 here
Part 4 here
Part 3 here
Part 2 here
Part 1 here