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RE: the big fall

in Project HOPE2 years ago

Dear @trabajosdelsiglo

Both the fiat market and the cryptomarket suffer from cycles where they first have a rise in the value of their assets and then have a big fall in the value of their assets,

Indeed. We had money printing (which pushed markets upward) and now we're witnessing inflation, which is causing interest rates to increase.


I remember one small conversation I had just a couple of weeks ago with a friend of mine. We talked about BTC rebounding. It had reached 45k at that time and moods between investors and youtubers were growing.

At that time I've mentioned, that part of me expect another solid crash before markets will really start to recover. Part of me expected that 30k support level need to be re-tested at least one or two more times.

Currently, I'm more bullish than I've been back then. After all: news about war and sanctions towards russia couldn't bring market dowwn below 30k and LUNA collapse resulted with drop below 30k for a short while (volumes increased enormously, which is a good sign).

It's really difficult for me to imagine what kind of news would be needed to bring markets even to lower levels. It seem that even such a terrible news (war, luna collapse) were not "tragic" enough. In other words: it seem that spreading fear and making people sell their crypto (panic mode) is quite challenging already. And that's a good sign of upcoming recovery.

Cheers, Piotr

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you are absolutely right, this market crash was necessary, in my opinion as we get closer to the maximum amount of BTC that can be extracted we will have more events in which the big whales will spread panic in order to compare BTC at low cost.

on the other hand getting people to sell their BTC out of panic is quite difficult, as people become more informed and use BTC they understand its value this makes the news that seeks to spread panic not have as much effect on people.

thank you for your comment and for all your advice, you are a great leader for the community.

 2 years ago 

Thanks for getting back to me @trabajosdelsiglo

My personal view on current market condition is as follow:

  • when we reached 30k just several weeks ago, I remember saying that it would be healthy for markets to re-test this level. And we did. So I see it as a healthy thing.

Truth be told, I consider current crypto market to be super strong. And pretty much wiped out from so called "weak hands". Even horrible event as War between Russia and Ukraine (followed by global sanctions against Russia) didn't crash the market. It just brought it to 30k levels.

Now as awful and tragic news related to LUNA (which sold thousands of thousands of BTC in their attempt to protect UST peg) also only brought this market to around $30k levels. It seem that every BTC which goes beloww 30k is being "scooped up". And it's only harder and harder to bring enough fear and panic to push more people to sell.

Based on my limited experience: whenever we reach level of total fear, then we're near the bottom.
So overall, Im very optimistic about future of crypto market.

Cheers, Piotr

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