when really the relevant issue is the outcome of the possible conflict with Ukraine.

Hi @carlir

My guess is that this conflict will not escalate. It's a way for Russia to put political pressure on european union.

After all, Russia already attacked Ukraine once (within recent years) and didn't achieve much. It would be very expensive for them to go into war. Especially without many allies and economy struggling.

That's my own little opinion :)
Cheers, Piotr