RE: Bitcoin Halving | What is it and what effect will it have on the BTC price?
Dear @blockchainfo
But first, let's look at what halving is. Satoshi Nakamoto has programmed that bitcoins will be released into circulation gradually with each block mined so that their final amount is a maximum of 21 million.
Small miners will probably be closing down and within few more years mining will be done mostly by corporations. And will be more centralized than ever. Small businesses simply won't be able to compete.
Wouldn't you agree on that?
SIDE NOTE:
I wonder what are your personal expectation towards price of BTC in near future?
Many people out there seem to expect price of BTC to increase after upcoming Halving. And I'm trying to understand if those are not mostly ... just lovely wishes.
After all, we should ask ourselfs a question: how Halving would impact demand and supply?
Based on my knowledge, supply will decrease. That's the fact. so there may be less bitcoins dumped on the market by miners. Which will surely reduce selling pressure.
However, it doesn't mean that demand will increase. Am I right? So at the end of the day BTC price has higher chance to continue upward movement, but I wouldn't expect FIREWORKS.
ps.
Also I'm wondering, if halving isn't already priced-in. In the past not many people seemed to know about halving, so for many it came as a huge news. News which could bring some hype and switch on FOMO.
Currently many seem to be expecting similar market behaviours. And that's a major difference between now and past. Wouldn't you agree? Just curious what do you think.
Yours, Piotr
I agree. They will shut down, some of them. I see BTC centralization of mining a problem. But "yet", we don't need to worry about it.
I expect the 2nd scenario to be valid. The price might drop a bit from now (in the short/mid term). Yes, less supply means higher price. The demand will not come instantly. So the price increase will be gradual.
Those events like halving are mostly priced-in, because the miners knows the exact date and they start to price-in it in months advance. If the mining costs are (before halving) around 3-4k, tomorrow it will be 6-8k, where below those prices most of the miners won't sell! This doesn't mean that the market will not move to 4-6k levels for a short period of time, it certainly might. Because of manipulation - just check the news from previous days - pure FOMO - massaging the average Joe to step in, while the "whales" are cashing out at 10k levels...but promising regular users new ATH and 20k levels almost in couple of days. Longs vs. shorts were in ratio 75/25, so the drop/dump was inevitable. I was expecting it right after the halving, but it came before. But the ratio in my mind told me "not to overreact by FOMO" and it was right.
Dear @blockchainfo
What an amazing comment. Seriously love it. I've finally managed to catch up with old comments. Thx for yours.
Have a great sunday ahead,
Yours, Piotr