IMPACT of halving in my point of view
INTRODUCTION
Just 2 days ago, we experienced another halving. I am going to assume that everyone who reads this topic already understands what Bitcoin halving is about, and if not, it would help if you already have some basic knowledge on the topic before continuing further. I would like to share my personal view on halving and its impact on the price of bitcoin.
And most of all - I would like to hear from your view on the topic of discussion. I read all the comments and I hope to learn from each other.
OBVIOUS FACTS
One obvious fact is that halving will impact the upcoming daily supply mined to around 450 BTC daily. That will affect the price movement in the upcoming months. After all, miners are largely behind selling pressure as they are constantly required to sell mined BTC to cover expenses denominated in fiat currencies.
I hope so far we are all on the same page.
WHAT MINERS WILL DO?
I listened to several podcasts and discussions on that topic and most of the time I would hear that miners will have to find cheaper sources of energy to survive.
To me, it seems to be obvious that the majority of mining facilities will find it very unprofitable to sell any newly mined BTC at the current market price. So I would expect that this is something that they will avoid at all cost. Those businesses will use their reserves and perhaps even go into debt to wait it out.
While knowing what market expectations are at this time, halving may be followed by a long upward trend. Add to those expectations recent ETFs approval and interest rate cuts that are going to start happening at some point. Which will accelerate liquidity run from cash to assets.
To summarize: I would expect that the majority of miners will completely PUT ON HOLD all newly mined BTC for as long as they can. So I would expect close to ZERO selling pressure from miners in the upcoming months.
Would you agree?
CONSPIRACY THEORY
One more theory I would like to discuss is this:
- if halving continues to happen every 4 years, then I believe that at some point only government bodies will be able to afford to be miners. Did it ever cross anyone's mind?
I sometimes wonder what this space would look like if the majority of mining facilities were already owned by various governments.
Yours, @crypto.piotr
@project.hope founder
check out our PH community: https://steemit.com/trending/hive-175254
Greetings dear @crypto.piotr, it's a pleasure for me to greet you. I agree with what you mention in your article when you refer to the fact that the selling pressure will decrease on the part of the miners. This is possibly because now you have the reward in half and the cost of producing a bitcoin is higher. In the short term, I don't think they will solve with alternative energy sources, but in the long term it would be a great alternative and even so I think they would speculate with the price because more than 80% of bitcoin is already mined.
On the other hand, the conspiracy theory that intuitions own mining farms is not far-fetched, they have both the purchasing power to cover the cost of equipment and the governmental power to consume the amount of energy they need without any problem.
It will dawn and we will see, have a great week.
Hi there @amestyj
It has been my pleasure to be greeted by you :) Thanks for taking the time to read and comment on my post.
My main point is that I don't expect that any of those newly mined BTC would end up on the market until much later in current bull run. So sell pressure coming from miners won't only be cut in half. I would expect it to completely disappear until prices will be much higher.
I'm not sure if I made myself clear about that part.
Stay safe
Hello @crypto.piotr First of all welcome back I checked your profile and noticed that you're posting after a year.
I'm agree with your post and yes i have had the time to think that if the halving continues to happen every 4 years then over time government bodies may be the only ones able to mine. If this happens, it will be a huge change for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in terms of the impact they will have on bitcoin valuation and market share.
Thanks @danish578 for taking the time to share your view
And yeah, I have not been posting in a long while. I focused my time on curating within Project.hope community and Im now trying to find more time to write from time to time :)
Stay safe
Great Sir, I am very impressed with your project which you have started called Project Hope Community and given people a chance to earn a good reward.
If we talk about time then you should keep a specific writing schedule which will be very easy for you and I will definitely read your each and every post and I will learn a lot from your posts.
Receive a big greeting dear friend @cripto.piotr, after reading your publication is certainly very feasible your theory, I could hear from a video that currently the operating costs of mining a bitcoin exceeds 80K and this leaves the production pode below the current cost, ie are at a loss, this indicates that the theory of supply and demand must intervene, so the miners will not sell until they can have a return and that is when we can see some exponential rise of bitcoin and with the recovery of the value of it that everyone expects.
thank you very much for sharing your publication.
Hi there @dgalan
Thanks for taking the time to read my post and share your view
I've never heard that stats. I wonder if this is the average cost or minimum cost. After all it must be different depending on country and cost of electricity.
Cheers :)
dear @crypto.piotr nice to see you here active again haven´t seen you for a long time here ;)
And yes in the majority of your arguments I´m with you, just the last point
you must not look so far to see some of these guys doing exactely what you mentioned, there is Nicaragua but they mostly buy them (maybe not all), the US-Boys actually just confiscate them (actually maybe later they will change habits), Buthan has done it with great power and still will do it including powering up their mining facilities, don´t know what China and North Korea does, so you see that´s not a future term its almost happening in several corners of the earth.
And to break it down for the seeking of newer and cheaper energy resources, that´s not a hard thing to reach, if people will use their brain, we not only have Wind, water and solar power, we also have billions of tonns of waste in anny state worldwide, so the use of this energy via Waste2Energy plants can produce energy out of nothing for costs below the cost of wind and solar and water and moreover for less than a nuclear reactor and wouldn´t harm the environment. Some of the big mining players have already checked that out and take that in consideration to solve a huge environmental problem and gain money at the same time with mining BTC out of this very helpful task, that´s win win pure, we all just need to use our brain for what it was designed for ;)
So to make it short, BTC ist solving a lot of problems, environmentally, financially and socially, by the way I never heard about Visa or Bank of america thinking of using a W2E-plant to generate their tremendos amount of energy what they burn daily without having any bad thoughts about it ! Did you ?
Hi @don-t
And it is also nice to know that you're still around :)
I very much appreciate your "juicy" comment.
ps. can waste be turned into energy? I did not know that
aaaah so much honey my dear friend ;)
and yes waste can be turned into energy the modern wording for that is Waste to Energy or just W2E the last ones who found out about where the guys from the crypto mining industry -one of them and by far the most known of them is Riot Platforms a NASDAQ listed BTC-mining company-. they partnered with another US company they´re called reformed energy
So yeah it´s a big lie when they say that BTC is wasting energy and harms the environment, the opposit is true BTC is solving decades old problems from our society, turning mostly very dangerous landfills into cheap energy for mining the better money.
If this isn´t green than I don´t know what´s green ;)
Greetings buddy and hope that you are doing good.
I think miners will not sell this time because they are aware that bullrun is about to start soon and they will able to make a log money soon. I agree that after the halving their profits are reduced and probably they are loosing but they have gone through the similar situations in the past and have seen that how BTC spiked. So overall I also dont expect selling pressure from miners.
Have a good day buddy
Great to see your comment @okalok
Thanks for taking the time to read my post and share your view on that particular topic.
We are clearly on the same page here.
Hi buddy, trust you're doing great.
Just as would be expected, the halving should usher in an upwards price movement, which is also as a result of the supply reducing. In the past halving events, there is usually a very remarkable price increase which sets the pace for Bull Run, so we expect the same scenario this year too.
I think government institutions have already started acquiring btc mining facilities. I read somewhere about the country El Salvador officially launching their own btc mining using a form of renewable energy (geothermal energy). The process has already begun. Let's watch and see how it plays out.
Thanks for sharing buddy, and welcome back.
Hi @samminator
Love to see your comment and I'm glad to know that you are still "around".
Stay safe buddy
@crypto.piotr good to see you back after a long time. As per my understanding currently it will not have much effects as the price is stable. In the coming months we will see a price increase in the btc as demand will increase in the market. Let's hope for the better future. 🙂
Hi @adityajainxds
Im trying to find more time and energy to be little bit more active here on Steemit. Lets see if I can become more consistent with my presence here again :) fingers crossed
And I love to see your comment and I'm glad to know that you are still "around".
Stay safe buddy
Greetings @crypto.piotr
It's good that you restarted your publications here on Steemit. Welcome back.
Thanks for your encouraging words @joslud
ps. Do we know each other? Cheers :)
Hi @crypto.piotr
We don't know each other directly, but you were a manual curator at Tipu. I also know your Project Hope proposal.
Thank you, friend!
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