RE: The inflation from all the Pandemic Spending isn't even here yet, but it will be
Stock market is becoming less of an accurate proxy for the health of the economy, and the published unemployment rate is also less meaningful as people are underemployed rather than unemployed, and gig workers don’t participate on Wall Street. Most jobs that are gone are not coming back, so the inflation is offset by the cratering of the economy in lost activity (both dropping wages and dropping prices.) We will only know several months or a year from now how badly this has actually affected the global economy. And things don’t look good for the US dollar. Not sure if the World Bank will continue to track against the USD as a stable global currency or switch to EUR or RMB. Probably won’t be BTC yet but certainly gives BTC and maybe crypto in general an opportunity to carve out a niche. Pandemic has accelerated a lot of already established global trends (workforce automation, remote work, gig work, online shopping, contactless delivery, e-commerce) and crypto is right up there. Crypto portfolio is doing well, but otherwise it’s a tough time for most people. But certainly proving to be interesting to see what happens on the other side of this.
Yep I agree on many fronts here. The one thing that I think will happen though is that I think there will be an economic recovery and I think it will happen sooner than many realize. That being said, there are also likely to be structural economic changes happening in the workforce which may mean some sort of UBI is needed at some point down the road, which would only continue to hurt the dollar and would also make bitcoin that much more attractive. Overall though, I have faith that the government will continue to kick the can down the road and things will mostly bounce back, it's what's happened every other time previously.
Agreed. Recovery will be quicker than most realize because (1) global economy is by nature more resilient than it used to be, and (2) fear shows up in the media and the stock market in ways that don’t necessarily reflect reality but drive markets nonetheless. 2008 was the end of the world, until it wasn’t (by about 2009-10.) UBI will be needed but government will be slow to make it happen (if current US political gridlock over stimulus is any indication) so over time people lose trust in government. Enter global markets and crypto.