Bitcoin is a little over a month away from its next halving, what do you think will happen?

The Halving is currently projected to be May 13th, which is slightly over a month from now.

(Source: https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/)

What do you think will happen to the price of Bitcoin once this halving takes place?

My thoughts...

Historically, bitcoin has performed very well both 1 year prior and 1 year post halving, though we only have 2 other data points to go off of.

Hardly enough to come up with a hard and fast trend.

However, the fact that it has behaved pretty similar BOTH times it has happened, in other words batting 100%, it probably is fairly useful and better than disregarding the data all together.

Each of the past 2 halvings saw gains of over 10,000% and the peaks both happened roughly 1 year post halving, though the second one peaked slightly longer than 12 months post halving...

(Source: https://steemit.com/hive-101145/@jrcornel/what-to-expect-with-the-next-bitcoin-halving)

Given that data, and if things played out in a similar fashion, we might expect to see bitcoin peak sometime between May and December of 2021.

Awesome, but what about immediately following the halving?

My guess is that depends on what happens leading up into it.

If we run up a bit into the halving, my guess is that we sell off for a few months after the halving.

If we sell off into the halving, perhaps we run up a bit after the halving.

So, pay attention to the price action leading up into the halving.

If I had to guess at this point, the most likely situation is a run up very soon here into the halving, then a selloff post halving that lasts a couple months, then the massive rally begins that ultimately peaks between May and December of 2021.

There's my playbook, what's yours?

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc