Bitcoin ran all the way up to $10k, now what should we expect?

Bitcoin has been on an absolute tear, just as the US stock market has been.

There have been very few pullbacks in either since making lows a little under 2 months ago.

Bitcoin just hit a major psychological level in $10k, a price it hasn't traded at since February of this year.

Similarly, US stocks are just a hop skip and a jump away back to the levels they were at prior to the coronavirus related sell off.

The reason I am mentioning both here is because they have been trading with a positive correlation to each other for months now.

Anyways, what should we expect going forward?

Bitcoin is now merely days away from its next halving event.

As it stands currently, the block reward halving is scheduled to take place in roughly 3 days and 6 hours, on May 12th.

This is likely to play a major role in how bitcoin behaves currently.

There is a very real chance that bitcoin sells off following its halving, especially since it has run up so much leading into it.

The last halving saw a rather sizable dip roughly 3 weeks post halving, that took prices down roughly 25%.

BCH and BSV, as well as LTC, all dipped immediately following their halving events recently as well.

Plus you have many technical indicators currently overbought at the moment...

(Source: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/)

The RSI for example hasn't been as high as it is right now since early February, when bitcoin was trading at $10,500.

Less than a month later, it was trading for $8k.

On the contrarian side...

Just because bitcoin is overbought, doesn't it can't remain overbought for some time.

You have BTC very closely following stocks, which just keep going up and up.

Plus BTC just broke a major downtrend line as shown on the above chart, which can work as a buy signal for many traders/investors.

Plus you have many positioned for BTC to pull back from current levels.

Check it out:

(Source: https://steemit.com/hive-148441/@jrcornel/what-do-you-think-bitcoin-is-going-to-do-after-the-halving)

And as you probably have figured out by now, markets tend to do what the least amount of people are positioned for, IE whatever causes the most pain.

Which would fly in the face of a post halving dip...

That being said, my personal thought is that we are going to see a dip post halving, but it won't be a huge one.

Something in the realm of 20-25% from the highs seems reasonable to me, but like I posted above, there is the chance that bitcoin just keeps climbing since the majority of people are expecting a dip like me.

With the halving only 3 days away, we are about to find out.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc