Covid19 Diary - As Panic Spreads Are Bank Runs Next?
Self Isolation Day 17
March 19th 2020
Events are accelerating. I've noticed just in the last 3 days that my post is out of date almost as soon as I post it. I've noticed a lot of articles about coping with isolation mentally, which is good, I just could have done with them several weeks ago. Having started self isolation 17 days ago unfortunately doesn't mean I can be complacent that I don't have Covid19 as its been circulating for months by now. Also there are cases of people being asymptomatic for the best part of a month. Not to mention that for mental health reasons I tempered my self isolation with some social distancing.
I got another home delivery today. The list of substitutions and missing items was extensive. The delivery driver told me there were large queues of people at 6 this morning filling their trolleys. The driver opined supermarkets should restrict customers to a basket only. They've been deemed key workers. I asked him about PPE, he had gloves but agreed they should have masks. They are being told to just leave items on people's doorsteps. Footage is doing the rounds of an elderly man being pushed out of an Iceland store by staff after becoming rowdy. Sainsburys has a special shopping hour for vulnerable people which has proven a stressful experience. Food bank bins are depleted. In fact in my area a food bank was broken into and £500 of items were stolen. This at a time when demand has gone through the roof.
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In my e-community a nurse, and her nurse husband, have both been ill and told to self isolate for 7 days. The NHS is not offering them a test and they are concerned about the wards they have been working on and will be going back to soon. She said;
there is only so hard we can work, but I'm afraid to say I'm not killing myself. The NHS is broken, it's been there for years, when this is over please shout at the government and if we go out on strike please fight for us.
Another thread in my e-community has been Positive Outcomes. So far it has covered the reduction in air travel, time to spend with the family, community spirit, Greta Thunberg's not been in the news, time to slow down, less cruises, hearing the birds sing, wearing pyjamas all day, the canals in Venice being clean, terrorists struggling to come up with targets, easier to get a parking space, people with no friends now have an excuse, spring cleaning, home deliveries, Eurovision being cancelled, phoning family members for catch ups, considering priorities and getting our freedom back at the end of this. I've personally started learning Italian as I have a holiday booked for the end of August. I'm hoping I can still go.
The UK government has decided to close schools on Friday after all. My friend who is a supply teacher has applied for a job stacking shelves at her local supermarket. Numbers watching the main news programmes on BBC and ITV have shot up to numbers last seen in 2008. There is a growing awareness that this is not the flu.
The next big story on the horizon is the closure of London. By this evening for all I know. Currently BoJo is saying he won't rule measures out. These will undoubtedly follow other EU countries, ie closing pubs and non-essential shops, plus forcing non-essential workers to stay home. It would also include legal restrictions to prevent people flouting the rules. Expect big fines. BoJo "a believer in freedom", thought people should take their own decisions. Decisions though should be based on open and transparent information. surely. The Imperial College London report by Neill Ferguson et al, modelling herd immunity and containment measures has not been made available, and there appears to be a media blackout regarding it.
At present it looks like the government will be relying on The 1984 Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act which it says gives it masses of powers. Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor has also been left out regarding the government's strategy. As of this afternoon at least, BoJo has ruled out closing down transport in London or stopping travel in and out of the capital. Quote "zero chance". In the 3 stooges press conference today, (BoJo, Whitty (Medical Officer) and Vallance (Science Adviser)) are still talking about taking containment measures as being "too early".
I watched an interesting interview with Jason Bermas today. He is doing a video blog on Youtube following events in his home town New York. Today Mayor Bill de Blasio has called for military assistance as recorded cases have doubled in a day. I don't know, but it looks like they are planning to lockdown New York soon. That London and New York are the twin financial centres of the world could be a coincidence, could be that it's not. The financial markets are continuing to implode despite record busting stimulus packages being announced. I've lost track of how much.
In the last three weeks the Dow Jones has nearly lost all the stock market gains since Trump's election. In the last two weeks the New York stock exchange has had to stop trading 4 times. Will the next stops last hours? Then will it be days? When we start having actual bank holidays will we see the sort of panic we are now seeing in the supermarkets? People queueing for hours at the cash machines. Fighting when they inevitably run out of money. I'll be honest, just as I started buying in food in February, I have started taking out cash from my bank in the last 7 days. If I'm wrong what have I lost? The very real possibility of a liquidity crisis though raises the head of the hyperinflation some of us have been concerned about since they started Quantative Easing (QE aka money printing).
Jason Bermas makes the point that the period of history we are living through right now is a "generational, humanative, transformative event". Big words for a big event.
In UK news reported cases at 2626, 137 dead. (Limitations as previously noted). Many Brits scrambling to get home from abroad, many won't make it says Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. Bank of England has cut interest rates, again. Not to zero you understand - just to 0.1%! We only got a letter from our mortgage company yesterday. The BOE also increased the amount of their UK bond holdings to £645 billion. They think its "temporary"!! The FTSE 100 may just be holding its head above 5,000, but the pound is struggling against the dollar. As well as expected further falls for Easyjet (EZJ) and Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG), there were also significant falls for insurers Aviva (AV) and Legal and General (LGEN). Tonight we can look forward to BoJo's Emergency Coronavirus Bill.