Hit probability increased to 2.3%

The diameter of the dimorph that was deflected by the Dart spacecraft was much larger than 2024 YR4, with 160 meters in diameter, the Dart spacecraft was the size of a washing machine and the mission cost 324 million, deflecting this asteroid should not cost much more, even sending three spacecraft it should not exceed 1 billion dollars. It is money, it is money but the risk in case the significant impact is confirmed.

Imagine that the impact is confirmed that there is an impact level of 80% or 90, 10% would be enough for me, but with 1% I am already worried, but imagine that in the end it is discovered that there is an impact level of 90%, the mission would have to be sent to divert it well before to achieve impact and divert it, because what can be diverted would be a few kilometers, it must be diverted millions of kilometers in advance so that those few kilometers of thrust for that small push What you give him at the end adds up to enough for him to pass you by.

When the mission is sent, it will be sent before being certain of where the impact will be, so we could have a much more defined strip than the one presented, but we would not know at the time of launching the rockets if it would impact the water, a city or a desert area, although in this case it does not cross any.

There could be a second alternative plan in case the first one failed and you launched a desperate attempt to break the asteroid into pieces. In that case, you might not be able to deviate and continue on a collision course with the Earth, but you would have a lot of fragments, so the damage would in principle be much less.

The Dart mission did not carry explosives, it was simply the impact of the ship. If it carried explosives, one of the most effective would be a neutron bomb, because it would generate greater thrust, but sending a neutron bomb into space also has its risks.

If it hits the ocean it would affect the formation of a tsunami, depending on where it does it, if it is in the Pacific it can affect all the continents that are around the Pacific from Australia Asia North America South America, that would be the case, but it does not have enough capacity to cause a tsunami, it would not be so big as to cause a global tsunami, if it hits near the coast and at less than 200 km from the coast then yes, but in the center of the Pacific or the center of the Atlantic it would not cause a tsunami, except for the nearby islands of course.

In short, there are two options, destroy the Bruce Willis-type asteroid, break it into pieces or divert it, the experts prefer to divert it because they don't really like the idea of ​​having a lot of fragments flying around, because also if you break it you run the risk that all those fragments will continue on the same path of the asteroid and end up impacting the earth, that's why they prefer to divert the asteroid by pushing it and it will then go to live the cosmos far from our planet but it could be the last option, that is, sending a mission to push it that would have to be sent months in advance, otherwise it would not arrive, not only because it has to take a while for the rocket to reach the asteroid but because it has to catch it far from the earth to be able to push it enough for that push to add up to what is necessary for it to pass by the asteroid.

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