After reading your post, I have benefited a lot. I feel that some of the points you said are very correct.

Rational market is assumed by stock to flow model where prices are determined and predicted on the basis of just scarcity.But STEEM price depends upon other factors more like adoption of users at the platform ,engagement of the users at the platform as well as development of new projects at the platform so this model in this way becomes less reliable to use and to analyse the price of this token.

When the platform releases a new project or holds a new activity, such a project or activity may have never been done before. Whether it is the participation of people or the impact of the activity, there are too many uncertainties, so it cannot be Rely on historical data and laws to determine future trends