Bitcoin Price Prediction

If you bought bitcoin, you know you could lose money in a year or two or three, but over the course of four years. Nobody ever lost money in bitcoin, holding it four years straight right, and i think that that's, a story with most dominant networks.

It's like and by. If you're buying it. If you're buying it with that without intention to hold it four years, i don't, think you're buying it for the right reason. The reason to buy bitcoin is to give it to your kids and your grandkids, because it's, a long duration, treasury reserve asset buy it for the people, you love or to support the things you love.

If you want to trade, you know you can gamble commodities or go to a casino or gamble on sports or whatever, but but this is something to hold for a decade or decades, and if that's the case, then the worst thing you can Do is stare at the way the market trades every day, because not anybody that tells you what they know which way it's going.

It really just wants your money, they they want to generate a commission and they want to. They want to make you insecure and say: hey get by. You know i bought i bought more. I probably bought more bitcoin than anybody in the world this year, but my inbox is full of all these dudes, offering me a special trading strategy where they're talking.

They're telling me that they can help me make more money by using their patented trading strategy, and i feel like some. I got approached by some shyster. That tells me he knows how to you know, win at roulette and he '

S got a special roulette computer. Yes, that's. All i'm, like dude man. There is no such thing and you don't know all right. Wait. I don't know it's too complicated don't. Go okay. Give me some advice here then michael.

I'm. I'm gonna i'm gonna ask i have to. I did not ask a question last time. I asked one this time so when i got in in i got in august september of 2017., i watched the run-up and i'm, convinced like you, that this is going to be the dominant m dominant monetary policy for the next 50 to 100 Years, who knows that didn't sell and i lost a lot of money because i didn't sell at the top.

Now i understand the cyclical nature of bitcoin right, but i'm, very split in my heart of when it goes up, and i understand it will probably go back down a little bit. Should i sell some of it? Should i sell all of it? Should i sell none of it because of my morals like what what advice? Would you give me there, because now a lot of us have been in this game more than four years? We understand the cyclical nature of bitcoin.

I think the way you use bitcoin is is a long time. A long term savings account. So so, if you want to have a portion of your money that you like to gamble with and speculate with and bet on on on things, you're passionate about take that part of your money and invest it in new ventures or invest it In cool things, take another portion of your money that you want to save for the next 20 years or 30 years, like you know and put that in bitcoin and just leave it there and don't, get caught up and and all the back And forth, because you know it used to be people, microstrategy speculate at all like on the cyclical nature of it or yeah it's in there permanently.

I i have bought either through entities through microstrategy or through any i control 88. 000 bitcoin. I never sold one satoshi, no, what i saw, but i'm thinking. I probably should when it goes to the top this time.

No here's. What i think i think you sell the bitcoin. How are you gonna feel if you sell it at twenty seven thousand and that's not wake up one morning, and it goes to eighty two thousand why this is 167 000 when it goes to a million and you're When it goes to a million, are you gonna be bragging that you bought it at point, one uh at .

019 million and you sold it at .2022 million aren't you gonna feel freaking stupid, like i bought it at .019 million, and I sold it at a 50 gain at 0.023 million and i lost a million well, i'm thinking, so here's.

What i'm thinking just say: let me i'm thinking. You know it gets to like in this cycle. I don't, know probably low end people are you know this? Is people smarter than me obviously low end six figures high end? Obviously we've had predictions anywhere from a quarter million to i think 388 000 was the highest.

I've seen so we go to quarter million. Maybe i sell one or two of my bitcoin and then you know like last time. There was an 80 decliner 75 decline in the price from peak of uh december 2017 january 2018, uh and then it went down.

Do i wait and then i you know, then i buy like 5x of the bitcoin. You know so ben. In the first decade, bitcoin was dominated by uh, a bunch of uh traders with leverage and offshore exchanges, and they were speculators, and - and that was a that was one group of people.

This year after march, you ' Ve got insurance companies corporations treasuries institutional investors; they're buying this stuff. Instead of gold, they're buying it to hold it for a decade as an inflation hedge.

They're, not using leverage. They're, not using offshore exchanges. They're, not they're, not speculators. Their mindset is, i'm, going to hold it for 10 years. I. What can i buy, that's better? If i sell it, i'm.

I'm, going to generate a tax bill and i'm going to buy something inferior, so they're, not going to sell it, and that means you're not going to see. I think that kind of volatility, so you think i mean i've heard you talk about you, think the volatility's going to be tamped down a little bit in this.

I think it already is i mean if you look at it. The volatility is a bitcoin is decreasing since march, and the volatility of everything else is increasing. Let me give you one more metaphor: ben yes, lebron metaphors, lebron james started playing basketball at age.

Nine, yes, and by age 18, all the scouts knew this is the best high school basketball player in the world and he's, probably one of the best professional basketball players in the world at age 13. He probably punched somebody on the court and he might have missed a game at 15 because he smoked some weed and he's a little bit volatile here and there because he's at age 11.

Maybe he got pissed off at someone and you're like oh lebron. James is volatile when's, he gonna blow up again from age 19 to age, 29, lebron james, crushed everybody and everything in his way, and you probably should have signed him, because, just because someone's first 10 years, they were Promising and volatile doesn't mean that the next 10 years of the athlete is going to be an exact repeat: yeah.

It isn't man, you're when you're 25 year old. You don't act like when you were 13 years old and bitcoin is moving from its first 10 years to its next 10 years, and it's, a much more mature asset. It's.

Not you can't look backwards and say i'm sure it'll, be like it used to be. You have to reason from first principles and when i tell you i just bought 1.1 billion of it and i intend to hold it forever right.

Did anybody in 2017 tell you that when you were buying bitcoin? No, no, i mean the obviously the narrative um from wall street from other people is is like diametrically opposed from where it was in 2017.

. All right so mike alia, says ben. If you sell even one satoshi, i'm, not your friend anymore. All right, i'm, done hold on damn it. No! No! Listen! Now, john! If i even tell if i even sell one bitcoin, i'm gonna.

Have this thing in the back of my head, like oh, i'm, such an idiot, don't. Do this? What ben? Let me just say one more thing: okay, the people that i know the wealthiest families in the world. They're, like these new york city families, where, where you ask them, where's, your money come from and like oh, my great grandfather, he bought like four city blocks in manhattan and like, and they're.

Like did you ever sell that i was like no, we still own it. They like they own it for a hundred years. Yes, if you have really good property like if you owned a block on central park in manhattan, do you think there's? Any year in the last hundred years, it would have been a good idea to sell it, pay capital gains tax and buy something else, only 20 20.

. What what only this year, maybe so, what they do? They hold it for a hundred years yeah and as people print more dollars. The value of the property goes up at the rate that the federal reserve prints dollars and then every five years they refinance it and they borrow more money against it yeah.

So if you borrow against an asset that's, appreciating in value you don't, pay capital gains tax and then the money you borrow you can live off of and you don't pay income tax on it. So if you have the world's, perfect price, if you want a city block and cyber space, that's good for the next 100, that's, bitcoin right, a bitcoin is the city block and cyber space.

If you own that, and if i told you a billion people are coming to that city and they're, all gonna need to buy their own block and you own the right property. It's, the manhattan of cyberspace. Why don't you just keep it in the family for a hundred years and the next time you feel you need some money.

Well, you go borrow money against your [ Music ] there's. No capital gains tax. There's, no income tax. If bitcoin was going up 100 a year, you're, getting paid 100 tax-free interest and you're gonna pay five percent interest to borrow the money it's, a 95 difference right.

So you don't want to sell, because you get tagged for the taxes and then you stop generating the yield on the property, really um, really wealthy families. They just keep the assets forever and they just finance them.