RE: Supporter Video: What society look like in 2 months? + videos and updates
I am stunned that people continue to consider this pandemic as comparable to the flu. The folks that do must make almost no attempt to learn more than what is pushed by the enemedia. Even the laughably low projections from the NEMEC slide are dramatically worse than seasonal flu.
But that slide, if the low numbers provided are replaced with better estimates, conveys how we can project the consequences of this pandemic for the US. Given that the doubling time for the infected is less than the 10 days NEMEC estimates, in fact about 5 days, it's likely the R0 is double their estimate, so more like 5 than 2.5. The community attack rate provided is below actual experience at 30%, and again, double that seems reasonable from prior estimates based on experience, so 60%.
Cases requiring hospitalization 5%, when China claims 20%, so only a quarter of actual reports. When considering more severe cases, the dichotomy between NEMEC numbers and real world experience jumps even father from reality to an order of magnitude lower. ICU is actually 10%, not 1%. Ventilation is far higher as well, and from all prior reports of real ICU outcomes, less than half those that require ventilation and intensive care recover.
So, we can adjust the NEMEC numbers using real world data, and get realistic estimates. At least half the communities affected will be infected. 10% of them will require ICU care, and less than half of those will survive. The US has more than 300M people, but we'll use round numbers to make the math easy. 150M * 10% = 15M people in ICU, and no more than half of them will recover, leaving over 7M people that will not recover - and this is if all those people get ventilators, which they will not as beds fill.
So, putting real numbers in place of the NEMEC fantasies gives a realistic picture of between 7.5M - 15M dead in the US alone.
It's hard to imagine folks that still think of SARS2 like the flu not losing it when the truth finally penetrates their awareness. They will become unruly I expect, angered at the enemedia they will blame for their ignorance. On top of the economic disruption this will exacerbate the government's imposition of martial law, driving more pronounced restrictions on civil liberties and particularly freedom of speech.
Steem takes on a far more vital role in our ability to understand what is really happening in the world when police states are engaged in an orgy of repression of factual information regarding existential pandemic. The divergence from reality evident in China, with the government claiming to be back to business as usual and mandating factories reopen while those reporting for work are dropping dead on the factory floor will be just as dangerous as pandemic itself, because it will cause susceptibility to that pandemic in those prevented from grasping their risk by misinformation.
The enemedia lies, and society dies.
But Steem isn't the enemedia - yet. We yet hold off the centralization of our blockchain media platform by Tron, and this continues our censorship resistance while we can prevent the takeover.
The question is, can we hold out two more months while this pandemic progresses and folks can benefit from a source of factual information?
We'll see. I know we'll do our best, and economic disruption is as likely to impact Tron as other commerce, which will disrupt their attack. Let's hope for the best, since our lives depend on it.
Thanks!
It really is hard to image at this point, that people still think this is the flu alright. Also what is amazing to me - is the fact that how this was covered, all over, by the media - all of them underplayed it for months on end - this im my opinion, did not make things better but worse - as now no one is listening to anyone that tells them its worse than the flu - for instance, I was talking to a family member - telling them about how bad it was about two weeks ago, they looked at me like I was crazy and they said from what the news told them it was just the flu - but what is strange, is this person usually at least listens to me - I think it is so scary for some people, that they can believe anything but something that is this bad. For instances, a lot of my subs say it is just the "media overreacting" etc., but its not the media overreacting, they have been underacting - the sad thing about this all, is that the underacting has now put the entire world in danger of an epidemic that we have not seen for 100 years at least. - your right about ICU (they like now to quote the number of 1% but everyone knows its around 10 percent, at least that is what is coming out of italy), that will be when people see the full scope of this - they don't seem to understand, when there is no ICU beds, the death roll will at least double - which brings the CFR is into a really bad place - that is when we will see real panic and the sadness from families will be unimaginable when they see their loved ones dying without any medical help. All we can do now is try to be part of the percentage that lasts, does not get infected, and can be around until herd immunity - if that can even happen with this many strains around.
It may be a long time - generations - before people gain some kind of natural immunity. This pathogen has so many attack vectors it's almost unbelievable. It attacks many organs, kidneys, liver, lungs, testes, maybe the intestines. It stages in neural tissue, like HSV, and can re-emerge later like HSV, and there's speculation this is the reason for sudden collapses due to it's attack of neural matter. Because it attacks testes it may cause sterility. One of the most terrible harms is lymphopenia - AIDS, destruction of the immune system. Because it's so many different diseases, or so many symptoms, it is difficult to imagine folks being immune to all of them, particularly given the immune system destruction.
A good friend of mine keeps telling me what the CDC, WHO, and enemedia tell him. That masks do not help, that the CFR in Italy is below 1%, it's just the flu, bro. I told him about Dr. John Campbell who this last weekend reported Italy's CFR was ~5%, and pointed out he's a very conservative, methodical doctor, and that he would like his videos.
I hope he watches Campbell, because I can't convince him of my concerns, even though I point to papers from The Lancet, the NEJM, JAMA, and similar sources. I don't want to offend or anger him, but he currently has a collapsed lung and is probably at very high risk of needing the highest level of medical intervention if he catches it. He's a very good friend. I owe him my life. I don't want him to be harmed or die, but I dunno how to reach his ability to reason.
I am slowly becoming extremely angry at the WHO, the CDC, politicians and the enemedia that are literally making people more vulnerable, causing the disease to spread more widely, and sentencing people to death for believing their bullshit. I told my senator to close our state border. Oregon is just south of Washington, and I see WA license plates every day around here.
Crickets. Schools are open, no one wears masks, no one is prepping. It's business as usual here on the coast, even though uncontrolled community spread is happening in Oregon in the cities now. I told my son to telecommute, but his employer isn't offering it yet. While he's young and strong, it's hard to feel complacent at his lack of concern. Knowing that our immune system and health is very driven by our mental state, I make sure to tell him how young and strong he is, and that I know even if he gets it he'll hardly even notice.
I hope he believes it, because he's very near the main Oregon epicenter. I have far deeper concern than I let on, because he's in his mid-twenties and knows everything, and if I try to tell him what I think he should do, he's got to rebel.
At least if he needs to get out of the city, I can take him in. I have food stuffed into my house at present. I even have an external quarantine chamber if I need to put him up, but don't want to get infected by him LOL.
Anyway, when evolutionary pressures hit populations, as is this pandemic, people that can see past the propaganda tend to live more than those that don't.
At least, that's what I keep telling myself.
Stay safe my friend.
Yeah, I know what you mean about telling people - I try myself, to inform them when I meet people, but most times - and this has happened a number of people you know in the neighbourhood, they kind of look at me and smile - like "I am telling them the sky is falling or something" - i keep trying to inform them now, so they don't come knocking on my door with a fever or something. I want them to prepare so they can look after themselves, and keep safe, but I know just what you mean, about that guy in his 20s - its strange young people these days, and I am 42 myself - they seem to have this "nothing bad will ever happen" attitude - you kind of get that feel with all the young people booking flights now because of the cheap tickets - my only hope, is that the space in the west - between houses - will mean a slower infection, once there is a lock down - i.e. wuhan with houses upon houses. But I dont know how long that will work, because there will be major food problems - if the virus gets into the live stock supply, and between animals, then there will be major problems. Keep safe man!
That’s beautiful man. Beauty from chaos is much better than order from chaos imho ;)
I have been amazed when people have come together to defend one another, or someone unable themselves to do so, during trying events. That is beautiful, to me.
I agree wholeheartedly
Pretty amazing how people continue to miss the basic arithmetic here let alone the exponential nature of the spread.
It is. I was once threatened by a Texan with getting punched in the jaw if I kept telling him facts. While I lost respect for him, I gained respect for Texas. I also saw no benefit to me from enabling his understanding either, so left him to his ignorance.
It is astounding how dedicated people are to their masters, even when their lives are at risk. That guy was just unhappy that I told him of Nicaraguan children being hamstrung to make them easier to rape in front of their parents by the Contras, and so opposed Reagan whom he idolized.
I was unhappy about it too, which is why I opposed Reagan and Bush after.
Thanks once again for the education. I hadn't heard of the Contras until now, as I was a small child while Reagan was in office. I was already aware of his gun control efforts as California governor because I've studied that issue extensively. He pushed a ban on open carry through to prevent black people in their communities from doing private security patrols. Apparently the police were afraid that they started taking care of their own security. Since this is in stark opposition to his rhetoric as president, I knew him to be a charlatan. This is a tough pill to swallow for my right wing friends.
I'm old, and have learned from the many betrayals I have suffered that politicians, one and all, are charlatans. Bernie and Trump alike, they are all fall guys for the banksters. Their words mean nothing, and no matter how far back in time you search, you will discover this fact to be ubiquitously proved by comparing campaign rhetoric to post-election policies.
If you support one of them, you support them all, because you support the system they are a critical part of.
You and I are of the same opinion on this 🙂