Operation Barbarossa - An Alternative History Thought Exercise

Some time ago a friend from Bulgaria with an interest in alternative histories put to me a question about the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941, here are my thoughts on his premise, please feel free to add your thoughts.

Premis: if either Great Britain or the USA had been in the place of the Soviet Union at the start of Operation Barbarossa in June 1941, then the German invasion would have been defeated. The political situation in the Soviet Union negatively impacted its ability to fight off the German invasion.

Situation – General Outline as at June 1941 

 The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics  

• Huge resources of land and manpower; natural resources under exploited.
• Large, but rudimentary industrial complex, reliant on “Hero Projects” for rapid expansion with poor transport infrastructure.
• Low education levels across the population as a whole.
• Diplomatic style lacking finesse and seen as expansionist and a threat to neighbouring states.
• Politically dominated by Josef Stalin with no opposition tolerated, real or imagined.
• Red Army command structure in the process of rebuilding after purges; many inexperienced commanders, lacking military education. 
• Very poorly trained conscripts with many units under strength.
• Red Army soldiers, very tough and resilient, but frequently lacking in equipment, very poor logistical support.
• The vast majority of equipment is dated and frequently obsolete.
• New viable equipment (T-34 etc) is available only in small numbers and unreliable as it is still in early development stages.
• Tactical radios are a rarity even in armoured vehicles.
• Aircraft in and entering service are out of date.
• Some strategic strike capability (Pe-8 & the Obsolete TB-3).
• Pilot training is basic with little combat training prior to entering battle.
• Very good numerical advantage in available combat aircraft and tanks.
• Naval forces realistically pointless for open water operations, so manpower available for use in Riverine operations and also as Naval infantry. 

All in all, while the Soviet Union was fully mobilised for war, these restrictions made any creditable military performance beyond the capabilities of the Red Army as at 22nd June 1941. Only the opportune arrival of the Great Russian ally of generations past, Marshal Winter staved off a greater disaster than was already befalling the people of the Soviet Union and began the process of turning the tide.   

 The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland  

• A small island state, limited in natural resources and manpower.
• A well advanced industrial sector, having nearly 200 years of industrial development. 
• Transport infrastructure was second to none with metaled roads and an extensive rail network.
• Democratically elected parliament and a ruling cabinet, presided over by a Prime Minister. 
• Winston Spencer Churchill, being a man of action was a key aspect of the British war effort, driving projects that the inertia of normal times would have left to atrophy.
• Senior commanders tended to some extent to be very reluctant to take on new ideas.
• General staff was well trained, with virtually all senior commanders and staff officers having combat experience during The Great War.
• Junior staff officers would be educated in their duties at the Staff College, Camberley, by experienced officers following a constantly evolving syllabus.  
• The army was well structured and trained although the limited industrial capacity resulted in great shortages of equipment and delays in getting the latest designs into service.
• British equipment was frequently technologically advanced, although often outdated concepts were pushed forward by high level commanders and civil servants refusing to accept the latest ideas (or even combat proven ones) that failed to agree with their preconceptions.
• The RAF was well equipped with both fighters and bombers of superior design.
• Aircraft numbers an issue and production was never enough.  
• This quantitative shortfall was addressed by lend-lease purchases from the USA who were at this time beginning their own transition to war.
• The Royal Navy of 1941 was the largest naval force in the world ,but was widely scattered across the world. 

To sum up, the British forces are well trained and motivated, although small in number and lacking equipment.  Politically Britain has a driven leader with the ability to carry the people and troops through adversity, despite the blackness of the situation.  British diplomacy had been for many centuries a key strategic asset and so it remained, subtly affecting the situation to the Advantage of the national interest (e.g. The Admiral Graf Spee engagement). 

 The United States of America  

  

• A large country with ample population and natural resources.  
• The American industrial complex was the most advanced and efficient in the world, although at this time it was primarily producing consumer goods.  
• US politics was very inward looking and the isolationist faction within the government had been for some time the loudest voice in politics, although they was losing ground to more practical thinkers at this time.  
• As at 22nd June 1941 the USA had only just entered into the initial phases of its precautionary transition to war.
• US policy and diplomacy seems to have been of a very high handed type, with little grasp of cause and effect.
• The US Army was weak and poorly equipped.
• Armoured vehicles in particular were obsolete and few in number.  
• The development of modern tactics was also underway at the time of Barbarossa, multi divisional exercises taking place in the summer and autumn of 1941.
• New commanders came to the fore at these exercises (George S. Patton etc.).
• The USAAF was in a similar situation to the ground forces with regards to preparedness for war, although in some respects the technological backwardness was absent.  
• USAAF bombers were notable for their superiority, close to that of British designs.
• Fighters however were again not of a comparable standard to European designs at this time.
• The US Navy was at the forefront of the use of naval air power and had seven combat ready aircraft carriers in service in mid 1941.  
• America also had a useful number of effective capital ships and smaller vessels capable of taking the war to any enemy.       
• Again however the prime issue was preparedness for war, as with all US armed forces, the US      Navy was not ready for action despite the obvious threat from Japan and it being the greatest threat to this belligerent and expansionist enemy.

As at 22nd June 1941, the USA was neither politically, industrially or militarily ready for war, although this would change rapidly.  

Nazi Germany

• This is a belligerent and expansionist state revolving around one man, Adolf Hitler.  
• Politically the state is surprisingly dysfunctional; with a very dog eat dog culture at its heart.  
• The military seems to have been divided at its highest levels, Guderian, in his memoirs speaks of troubles between the higher level commanders even in action. 
• German industry was in overdrive and kept on going under the greatest of pressure, beyond what could ever have been expected of it.  The German economist Sternberg concluded that a protracted war would cripple the German economy in short order and yet through the activities of exceptional individuals, slave labour and the      produce of conquered lands, the German economic complex managed to go on.
• The German Army was in the process of equipping its formations with modern equipment.
• Formations were weakened to allow for the creation of more fighting units (albeit weaker ones).  
• The great strength of the German army lay in its tactical commanders, well trained, versed in the latest tactical      systems and combat experienced, these men were the best of their generation.
• The Luftwaffe was well equipped for tactical action, with good quality aircraft.
• The requirement for a long range strike capacity had never arisen and so the strategic strike capability of the Luftwaffe was absent.  
• German aircrews were of excellent quality.       
• The German Navy of WW2 was not up to the task of open battle with a capable foe.
• German Capital ships, while very capable, were few in number.  
• The lack of aircraft carriers was also a handicap to deep water effectiveness.  
• The Kriegsmarine however was dominant in submarine warfare, Donitz’s men were of great      effect and almost managed to win the war for Germany by removing the British from the war, possibly gaining (an unwilling) ally and more troops and so allowing a concentration upon the Soviet Union.

At the beginning of Operation Barbarossa, the German forces were fully ready for operations and well motivated.  Still not at proper strength with combat vehicles, however this lack of suitable types did not hold back the fighting ability of the divisions to a great extent.  

Comparison of Equipment – UK - USSR 

Heavy Tanks Britain discontinued this line after the Independent Tank (similar to the T28 or T35). The KV1 has no Match in British service.  In British service Infantry Tanks had a similar role. 

Infantry Tanks The A11 Matilda 1 & A12 Matilda 2 are far superior in armour to the Soviet T-26 or T-50, somewhat slower and with matching armament, only the Flak 18 or Sig 33 (at close range) were capable of stopping these tanks. 

Medium/Cruiser Tanks The BT series seem to have been superior to the earlier cruisers and comparable to the A13.  The new T-34 is far superior to any British design available at this time. 

Light Tanks The British Vickers MkVI is superior to all Soviet light tanks in speed and apart from the T-40, to which it is a fair match, it is superior in armour and armament as well. The Tetrarch was superior to all and comparable to the far later T-70. 

Armoured Cars The numerous British types tended to be lighter and more manoeuvrable than their Soviet counterparts; however the Soviet types were far more heavily armed.  

Heavy Artillery British forces relied on re-barrelled, WW1 vintage pieces in this role as an erroneous reliance had been place upon Air Power making Artillery obsolete during the 1930’s.  The Soviet M1937 Gun-Howitzer had no competition from any British weapon in service. 

Field Artillery The British 18 & 25 Pounder Gun/Howitzers were the equal of anything in service with the Soviet Union. The British weapons being slightly inferior in range to the better Soviet items, but with superior RoF and hitting power.  The Royal Artillery and the RHA, being organised differently from their Soviet counterpart, use the 18 pdr & 25 pdr in what would be seen as both Regimental and Divisional roles. 

Heavy Bomber Aircraft The RAF had in service at this time three useful heavy bombers, with an improved version of the Manchester, the Lancaster coming into series production.  This was a long term ongoing development and had no similar capability in the Soviet Air forces. 

Medium Bombers The Soviet Union had a workmanlike medium bomber in the Tupelov SB, although it was not in the same class as the British equivalents, the Wellington etc.  Again the British development of the Bomber concept achieved a clear superiority. 

Light Bombers & Attack Aircraft This was an area of initial failure for the British as the Fairy Battle, the best of the pre-war designs failed miserably in battle without air superiority.  The Blenheim was more capable, but still lacking, yet the superlative Mosquito was beginning to enter service and would be the best aircraft of its class seen during the war.  A Soviet aircraft, the PE-2 was of great potential, but failed to realise this in the early phases of the war.  This is possibly as a result of command failings as the aircraft was a superior type.  The Soviet Air forces utilised fighters in great numbers as attack aircraft and expedited the development of the Il-2, the best attack aircraft of the war. The UK had no equivalent to the Il-2 and only the RN really used fighters in the attack role in the early part of the war, although the RAF was developing these tactics. 

Fighters The outdated Polikarpov designs that numerically dominated the PVO and other Soviet air forces were out of date and had proved to be unable to cope with very early Me-109s during the Spanish Civil War.  Three years on the designs were not able to cope even that well with more advanced types. Newer types, such as the Lagg or Mig were still a good way behind German and British thinking in fighter design.  The Spitfire, was at this time the best fighter in the world, with the cannon armed MkV in operational service and serial production in early 1941, supported by the Hurricane (mostly on lesser fronts) this gave Britain a technological edge for a while.   

Comparison of Equipment – The United States - USSR

For virtually all of the above categories the US falls down, superior items were just around the corner, in development or being requested by the military; they were rarely in service. Exceptions to this are the M3 Light tank, an excellent vehicle for its time and suitable for service in the medium tank role at the time, M2 Field gun, which is still giving good service today and the B17 bomber which was in its early service. 

Possible Scenarios for consideration
 
Scenario 1:  British or U.S. troops are swapped man for man with Soviet troops retaining Soviet Equipment, numbers, organisation and political influences.  Only the training, tactics and morale change. 

Result:  The German advance is slowed and halted a little short of its historical limit; notably fewer casualties are suffered by friendly forces and proportionally more by the Germans.  Not a huge difference from the historical outcome.   

Scenario 2: British or U.S. culture and civilisation is swapped with the Soviet Union; only the land mass remains the same.  Historical situation is as it was at 22nd June 1941. 

Result: Both British and American forces are rapidly destroyed by the Germans. Lacking the numbers to be able to face the German onslaught, friendly forces withdraw fighting delaying action as they go. Encirclements by mechanised forces remove large portions of the combatants and insufficient numbers of aircraft allow Germany a costly, but effective, air superiority.  The small numbers of troops and aircraft available are insufficient to hold off the enemy.  The war in the East is brought to a fairly swift conclusion in Germany's favour as all parties are likely to have engaged in a diplomatic solution to the war.   

Scenario 3: As scenario 2, but with the new forces being in proportion with the industrial advancement and preparedness for war as at 22nd June 1941.  In this scenario British or American industry has developed to fit in with the Russian supply of human and natural resources.  Where it is reasonable to assume that items may appear earlier than in actual history (where development was slowed as a result of lack of industrial capacity etc.) this is applicable.   Much of the result of this scenario rests on this and on readiness for war. 

Result: Britain, fully transited to war and with an advanced industry is likely to have stopped the German advance with a series of defensive battles in the Ukraine and then gone on to the offensive. This has historically been where the British soldier is at his best.  With Political and diplomatic efforts likely to have weakened the axis and trouble fomented in the Balkans, fewer troops would be available to the Germans.   Air superiority would almost certainly go to the RAF and British Bombers would cause havoc in the German rear areas and along their logistic chain.  Given the situation in Germany at the time, the likely result would be a military coup removing Hitler from power. The USA in the same situation would find itself unready for war, given the way it was blind to the obvious Japanese threat, it is not reasonable to assume that a German threat would be given any greater credence.  The result in this case would be identical to that in Scenario 2.   If the Americans took the German threat seriously and began their transition to war earlier it is still unlikely that they would have been able to stop the German attack, however the Germans would certainly have had a hard time of it.  Partisan warfare would have been more prevalent and more effective than the historical case, this causing major logistical problems.  Being unable to hold the enemy in the first place I believe that the Americans would withdraw through the Urals and build their forces.  If The Germans could bring them to the negotiating table a peace may have been achieved, if not, then the Americans would in their own time advance across their conquered territory at great loss all round and keep on going until they established a defensive line along Europe’s Atlantic coast.   

Scenario 4: (USA only) The US civilisation and culture is situated in Russia, fully ready and transited to a wartime economy ready for Barbarossa. 

Result: The Germans make little headway before being turned back.   American superior numbers and technology are likely to turn the defeat into a rout that leaves no great amount of time for political manoeuvres, German cities are levelled as their armies are decimated; Germany falls before the end of the year.  

Sources/Bibliography

History of the Second World War - Winston S. Churchill, Panzer Leader - Heinz Guderian, Achtung Panzer - Heinz Guderian, The Campaigns of Napoleon - David Chandler, Germany and a Lightening War - Fritz Sternberg,  History of the Second World War  - Basil Liddel Hart, Numerous websites.

All Images Wikimedia Commons.