HF19- The Rewards Coaster- The Thrill of Victory and Slow Agonizing 7-Day Onset of Rewards Depression
Nothing like a little MS Paint to help you explain how you're feeling post Hard Fork! So, we don't have a rewards curve anymore. We have a rewards coaster. It's pretty thrilling at the start, but it leaves me crying on the inside a few days later.
Point A: Creating your post
I checked my spelling. Looks good. Whales are online. It's not too late. Not too early. Made a funny title. Check. Newb friendly? Check. I want this to reach 3k... so I should probably talk about EOS, but I'm not ready to go there yet. I'm still kinda working on Steemit. I'll just talk about whale balls and Hard Forks. Shit looks good to go for a few hundred dank amps. Fire the big blue button. POST!
Point B: happy slappy whale balls
BOOM! Giant Balls straight up ahead!!! We've taken a full hit. Dank amps register a $100 upvote. WOOT. Call yo wife! Call yo' kidz! Erryone is gettin' paid up in this bish! Trending here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!
Point C: Holy shit another whale!!!
We've hit the thirty minute mark. We have not 1 but 2 whales on board. Holy fuck. We're rich son. Gonna quit my job. Slap my boss. Poop in the copy the machine. Who the fuck cares. You see them whale ballz hit! I never have to work again!!!!
Point D: wait... shit... ugh, I guess they didn't mean 100%
Ok, so whale 2 readjusted their ballz. It's ok. We're ok. Sorry about that sir. I can clean up the mess I made. I'll go talk to HR about physical conduct. Sorry. It won't happen again.
Point E: Hey did my post go down a little?
I mean, I'm not sure, but an hour ago when I was obsessively staring at my post and reading and then rereading my own post and the replies I made to the comments on my post I could have sworn that I was a little bigger than this... I mean. I checked on esteem and it doesn't look like anyone adjusted their vote... Fuck, I'm getting old. I think I'm losing it a little.
Point F: Nope, confirmed, where's my money Nedowski? Give me back my post rewards or I'll cut off your johnson
Yeah, you heard me. We're nihlists. We believe in nothing. Give us the fucking money. I saw my post rewards. I had two whales spray fat amps on my post. Now you're taking it away? That's bullshit. You had one job. One job. Send me the post rewards that I had two days ago. It's down like 15% what the fuck gives?
Point G: Why god why? Why did you take my post rewards? Why Lord? I'll be good! Pleazzzzzzzzzzzzz
How can this be. My posts. My fucking posts. I had so much in them. It's 20 minutes before they give me rewards and they're down 30%. Why god why? I was gonna elope that 24 year old secretary. I was gonna start a family. I was promised a free lambo. Now... Nothing. It's all gone. Why u do dis?
At least it appears to be regressive
What's that mean? It looks to be cutting about 30% off of all my posts. If you're making a dollar it'll cut off $0.30. That kinda sucks, but it was just $0.30. If you're at $1500 it brings it down to like $1,000. Same percent, but now it's $500. Maybe that's good for minnows? Tough to get a read on since I'm only now really starting to see it. I wonder if this is adjustment or the new normal. Ironically my posts are making more, but by the end it feels like less since it went down 33%.
What do you guys think?
Mine have gone down for sure but I've got a ton of work to do to really create any kind of success here so I'm not losing sleep over it... I'm just going to keep learning, get creating, ride the roller coaster and enjoy the ride. Must be tougher when you're making money.
Nice gif. Look at you uppin' your comment game.
Thanks! It's fun finding them, like a little treasure hunt ;)
Let er Rip!
Thanks for posting this. We are all looking to our wits for the truth here; fact is NOBODY knows what HF19 will do over all, over time..
There were plenty of folks that had an opinion, and there were plenty of folks that thought it would be over all negative, even if it was an attempt at something positive.
But really, nobody knew, and they still don't.
Will be interesting to see, and hopefully, people like aggroed will help us find our way over time and make this thing really work!
at least keeping the dialog going of have we made a good trade or is autoposting 4X what happened before worth it?
Here's my understanding (and I'm sure its not exactly right, though its close enough for us to grasp the concept):
All post and comment values are ESTIMATES based upon the seven day average price of Steem and/or SBD. Consequently payout amounts fluctuate with fluctuations in the 7 day average price. Additionally, the estimate is based upon your estimated share of a pool of newly minted steem that will be distributed at your payout time. The number of minted steem is fixed, but how that fixed number gets divided up among posters, curators, etc. varies. For instance, suppose there was only one post and one vote for that one post during the entire payout period. That one post would then get allocated ALL of the newly minted steem, making it hugely valuable. Because the algorithm that estimates your payout doesn't know exactly how active the community will be in posting/curating over a given period of time, it can't make exact predictions. If the community has been more active in posting and curating than the algorithm predicted, then the fixed number of Steem gets divided among more posters and curators than originally estimated. The algorithm is constantly updating the estimation, so when the community is very active this can cause reward values to be diluted slowly over time prior to payout. So...dilution is actually a good sign since it indicates robust posting and curation activity (which should ultimately lead to higher Steem prices).
But there's also this. The pool is draining. I think that's the shit part of the coaster. it makes sense. We can't triple the value of all the posts without a balance somewhere else. In this case we raped the pool for a week. Should normalize after this, but with the smaller poool. If it keeps draining that's a way bad sign that the math is all chronenberged.
I think both of your analysis are spot on.... @sean-king & @aggroed. Combine that with the fact that Bitcoin has been on the decline slightly. We can only wait and see what the long/ahort term effects are one month after HF19... If Bitcoin goes up ...then we'll see a little less than 30% taken off our payouts... sigh
When someone asks me what happened on payout day.
Haha..yeah 🤣
Interesting illustration. Yep it pretty much summarizes how I feel post HF19 haha. But well I think it's because there are increasing active users sharing the fixed rewards pool as the hf19 is attractive, and that steem price has gone down lately. There's no hidden new mechanism for the adjustment post hf19 i guess, it's just how its been working all the time
when your in the same room with a whale
What I would give to be in the same room as a whale. Lol, there is an idea for a post, maybe I will write it. Dibs!
Do you think it is because so many people are getting paid from the HF19 and transferring that money off of steemit?
I can't tell yet. There's been huge price movements which effect the reward shares pool net value. It's hard to disentangle that. But I think this is different. I think it's inherent to the way the post calculates rewards.
Hey Aggroed. Great Post and great follow up from @sean-king. The indepth thoughts and analysis are great. I have always been one to take that analysis and turn it into Layman's Terms. The reason the pool is getting drained is a simple numbers game. What do you think the ratio was that everyone was upvoting at 100% 40 times a day or more before HF19? I'd bet not very many. Well, its a lot easier now AND more rewarding to max out your daily sweet spot of 10- 100% votes. That is spiking the utilization percentage by probly 100% or more and pushing down monetary rewards. I bet you this is the new normal and the only way to grow out of this is a spike in Steem price(investors), a change in voting behavior, or another HF. If we get a new large influx of minnows who don't want to invest or if Whales/Dolphins just continue to feed themselves we are going to have issues.
Yep. We may not have actually reached the new normal. Reward pool is down another 100k Steem today. I htink there's an equilibrium somewhere. I hope we find it soon.
It just hard to tell what happen until everything comes down.....Plus it doesn't help that ETH had a flash crash. That caused this minor correction we are in now.
yeah. A lot of weirdness is happening simultaneously.
I thought we were due for a correction...The flash crash just pushed that hand a lot faster.
BTFD
Yeah I noticed the reward on all content decreasing significantly. This might be due to recent steem price drop at markets but it id nit dropped 30% so lets see when it will boost to $3 per steem
This comment has received a 0.13 % upvote from @booster thanks to: @cryptokraze.
@me-tarzan does a good track of the rewards pool. Could some accounts coming out of dormancy post fork account for the drain?
https://steemit.com/steemit/@me-tarzan/rewards-pool-i-have-charted-the-waters-for-you-june-27-2017
that's from the post. That feels like it explains a lot to me. Yeah, could just be the pool draining. That's probably not good.
Bro I just smoked and your post has me tripping.
I had heard a few people much more knowledgeable than myself on such matters state that the initial drop after the HF19 was expected, due to some sort of backlog or undistributed rewards. It may have had to do with the "whale non-voting experiment", but I may be mis-remembering.
Incidentally, I enjoyed the posting ritual as you described it. I am also checking and re-checking grammar, aligning post times, etc. It's quite a lot to keep track of, but necessary if you spend large amounts of time on the content of each post.
I don't actually do those things. I tend to just let'r rip and fix shit after the fact.
Ah, so this is fiction?
"I checked my spelling. Looks good. Whales are online. It's not too late. Not too early."
Well, I wrote it knowing what my minnows do. It's not fiction so much as pandering to my audience.
@lexiconical Thank you for the this link. It's interesting to read after this post.
Dude you have just pulled in over $200 - but buy a Nissan GTR not a Lambo!
It's from a previous post. My last steemit tips was a sarcastic f4f slam and used free lambos as a prop.