Would Coins Chosen at Random Perform Better Than Haejin Advices?
Sorry that it took that long, but finally i can presente you the answer to the question above.
Shall we begin?
First, even though i stopped to add new coins to the portfolio on day 04-26-2018, it is interesting to see how would haejin recommendations performance be.
Haejin's:
12k USD... Not bad...
But if i had picked coins at random:
33k! That's 21k more profit than Haejin recommendations. That's a bad start Mr. Haejin...
But Let's see another perspective. How would both portfolios be valued the day after i stopped adding new coins to it?
Haejin performance:
Random coins performance:
Haejin got a point here, but since his performance would be lesse than 1,5% better than random coins, i don't think It's a big achievement...
How about highest and lowest value of the portfolios?
Haejin's:
Random Coins:
Looks like if you chosen random coins, you would have a better return if you were goodenough to sell the coins at It's higher price.
What about closed trades? Maybe Haejin is better at spotting when to close trades?
Total effective profit of haejin closed trades:
$3084. Not bad...
Random coins closed trades (closed at the same point in time as haejin):
$5068. Ops... a lot better than Haejin Recommendations.
You can check the portfolios on the links below:
Haejin Portfolio
Random Coins Portfolio
Conclusion
Haejin performance at predicting cryptocurrencies ar no better than choosing coins at random.
Actually, you would probably be way better rolling a dice to pick your next investment than following his advices.
This highlights one of the biggest flaws with technical analysis, it's mostly guesswork in the cryptocurrency world. In traditional stock markets, technical analysis can work because you've got more data and the markets are more stable. In crypto, things can be manipulated too easily because prices can rise and fall for seemingly no reason.
What Haejin and any other technical analysis trader does isn't an exact science and arguably as you've highlighted its no different than guessing which coins to invest in. It's sad that Haejin profits so much off of his information when it's mostly misleading, he's like a supplements salesman. Selling false promises and beliefs.
Ask anyone who really trades and they'll tell you the same thing - entries have about 10% importance in making money. That's why predictions are worthless, it's how you manage a trade that's important. People should spend 90% of their time planning the exits, where you make the actual money.
I don't really have a view on the Haejin thing, if the system allows itself to be abused then people will abuse it. His technical analysis is terrible though, you can tell by the language he uses and the way he misinterprets indicators that he's 'newb retail trader' level and probably doesn't trade at all. Just my opinion though.
@thabiggdogg @d0zer
You seen this blog?
I think the bigger issue is everything is compared against USD. It would be more reasonable to compare it to btc. Virtually all Alts require you to buy btc (ie deposit fiat, exchange for btc, trade btc for Alt) and holding btc often out performs buying and selling the Alts!
I have to say that's true for just about everyone who 'predicts' coins, it's little better than a 50/50 guess.
What's more important is how much money they made off those predictions. It pointless if they make $1000 when their prediction is right but lose $5000 when their prediction is wrong, when their probability is 50/50.
Notice how virtually no-one shows you their account balance when they make predictions, and how much it made them, just the coin toss, sorry, 'prediction'.
Picking coins at random is the same thing as gambling. It's not the same as strategic swing trading. You don't want to be a HODLer of a coin when it's in a long downtrend. Rather you want to be trading coins in a long uptrend.
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