GOLD: Are you a GOLD Bug? Just Because It Glitters Doesn't Mean you Can't Wait to Buy!
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SUMMARY
On the equity side, I believe we could see a fantastic first 2 or 3 quarters....like near double of DOW and SPX. Yes, yes...I know who the permabears are out there constantly calling for the skies to fall on the markets. It matters none to me as they've been doing that since March of 2009 and have been more wrong than a broken clock!
IF the equity market does near double; well, gold could fall because they are inversely correlated...right? NO! Not to me. I don't believe that such inverse correlation is a reliable indicator because they only are until they are not. I've often discussed the phasic and non-phasic nature of even cryptos. Many now think that if Bitcoin (BTC) rises, then the Altcoins will decline and the inverse. Not so, IMHO. The cycles of the Bitcoin and Altcoins happen to have overlaps (phasic) and segragated (non-Phasic) episodes. There are successful traders who use such cycles e.g. Hurts Cycles; but I have not gained the expertise. My method of analysis takes each and every article on its own merits for Elliott Waves and Chart Patterns. Of course, I scan and observe for market conditions and influences; but my analysis is primarily based on price being the purest and earliest reflection of sentiment and so price only matters.
The below chart represents a weekly chart of the precious metal: Gold. Allow me to take you through the chart. From the left, Gold completed a beautiful and vintage impulse wave of five waves. Elliott Waves states that after five waves, there is a requisite a,b,c correction. Sure enough, after reaching a high of $1,921; the correction started back in August of 2011 and has been continuing its mortifying decline of five red waves to complete the blue (a) wave of the correction. The blue (b) wave is always composed of three subwaves and its subwaves have been labeled accordingly. The first red wave 1 of the blue (c) wave completed and it seems the red wave 2 has also completed. This wave 2 of blue (c) wave also seems to be displaying a bear flag pattern; a highly befitting pattern for impending declines to come. That leaves red waves 3,4,5 of blue (c) and their completions could bring a long awaited closure to the Precious Metal bear market. I show red wave 5 of blue (c) ending at around $765 or so. Perhaps, the next time you hear someone call for GOLD targeted for $5,000 and Silver to $600, consider waiting and do your due diligence!
Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #1
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #2
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #3
Laddering and Buy/Sell Setups.
Laddering Example with EOS
Tutorial on the use of Fibonacci & Elliott Waves
These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended
@haejin's Trading Nuggets
Essay: Is Technical Analysis a Quantum Event?
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Legal Disclaimer: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**
I would love to see more of these commodity and stock analysis charts @haejin!
We all know crypto is where it's at now, but there will be a bear market one day, and I would love to learn how to apply your chart analysis to stocks and commodities as well, to be ready to jump onto them when the time is right!
Yes!! Silver also please @haejin
Yes!
I would also love to see more of commodity and stock analysis.
He said that some market manipulation by banks make the charts more difficult to read, would be great if he made some posts on it to explain how to deal with it.
Amen!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/q7Rhh2cM/ no bear market look fractial
Woa that's surprising. I guess with crypto being so dominate, ppl are just moving money from other assets into crypto!
In MicroEconomics, it's called Grisham's Law. Bad money drives out the good money. People are opting out of fiat and opting into cryptos.
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haejin,
What about Silver? Are you also bearish on Silver?
Master this time you are wrong you miss fractial https://www.tradingview.com/x/q7Rhh2cM/
Even your comments are educational. Thank you so much for all the information.
Gold will always be a solid investment and a good place to put your crypto profits for the long term- like cold storage
You should never use a word "always" when it comes to investments.
I agree but gold and silver are a storage of wealth to me not a investment i put fiat that i dont plan on touching for at least 10 years in to gold snd silver
I agree, except for gold...
Can we use 'never ' ? :-p
no
@theessential @hashbox , I agree with both of you... gold could be an interesting place to put some crypto profits (and funny: taking fiat --> crypto --> gold or fiat --> crypto --> fiat --> gold)... AND we "should never use a word always" nor never and ever... cheers.
Luckily, there are bitGold and bitSilver available in BitShares DEX.
Why wouldn't you want the real thing if you dont hold it you dont own it
I would agree in with “always” not being the right word in most context. Gold is a non renewable resource the has done nothing but go up over the years. As the supply becomes more and more scarce it will continue to rise. So I stand by my always remark when talking of gold.
Don't forget that it's possible, and becoming more viable, to mine asteroids in flight. This added variable can significantly increase the supply of metals like platinum, gold, silver, etc.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-mining-asteroids/gold-rush-in-space-asteroid-miners-prepare-but-eye-water-first-idUSBRE9AK0JF20131121
Yes !!! But in that case we have to count the costs of mining and shipping it to earth ...
I guess there is plenty of asterioids to go round hahah good point
That is if you believe there is an `Outer Space' to visit, even if we can get there, that everything that NASA puts out, from claimed Moon landings to the manned ISS, from the Space Shuttle to Mars expeditions, is faked, a hoax, or you follow the Bible's teachings that we live on an inescapable, flat, fixed Earth, enclosed in a firmament with just stars, Moon and Sun rotating above us and there is no Universe, as I do. I'll keep buying gold.
Because of tax laws in Canada, it can be more advantageous though to own actual silver or gold instead the bit versions.
mmm.... I don´t know... when do you want gold or silver, you don´t want just a bit, isn´t it?
I wonder if there is an inverse correlation between BTC vs. Gold when you compare the charts...???
lol
Would mean a lot of huge banks and investors actually bought BTC saying that it isn't a currencie and that it is a bubble, would be so hypocritical, but really possible.
Do you see the same pattern in gold as measured in other fiat currencies such as the AUD also, or could this downturn be USD specific mainly?
Silver has formed a relatively long term cup and looks like it's finishing the handle. This is a dual purpose HODL commodity that needs attention..
Yes silver looks nice!
The correction lasting from 2011 seems done, and I see the cup and handle from 2014 till now that you mention! Look out, baby on board! :)
Again, thanks for the tip!
live-and-learn (37) Yes and a relatively longish reverse head shoulder formation https://goldsilver.com/blog/clive-maunds-silver-market-update-1/
Silver cup handle that I'm referencing goes all the way back to 1980! It could take another year to complete and when it does $600 will be chump change! My opinion only(disclaimer ;)
Whatttt! The chart only allowed me to go back 10 years, so I completely missed it! :)
Love the coffee drawing, an image is really worth 1000 words! Have you started laddering in yet?
laddering in yet? Of course, yes but my strategy differs from yours. Lets say some prefer diverse portfolios. I also hold Gold stocks and Bitshares, TRX and XVG cheers
The chart looks like half the cryptos I bought :-) without the huge uptrend (in cryptos was when they got on the market). I guess we have finished correction, but also wave 1 and 2, wave 3 is coming !!!.
I agree. According to the silver chart, I believe it is in a buy range. What is your opinion, @haejin? Thanks.
My thoughts exactly :) I think it is soon time to start ladder in, but could there be a lower low before the uptrend you think?
Interesting :)
I agree 100%! I would never have guessed this would happen to the gold price, but given that people will be selling their grandmothers to get into crypto in 2018, they will probably be selling (her) gold too! Oh man, that was just a little joke...love to all the grandmas of the world...anyway grannies just might try to sell their own gold, (and possibly their grandchildren, hehe) for the same reason. Makes sense @haejin! But I know... you do the chart and the news will come up to meet the TA:) We shall see what the news actually is!
thanks for the teaching! please do not stop teaching... books are on their way
Why would anyone want a useless yellow rock when they can have Steem and be connected to the world by a social blockchain.
Because smart people diversify their portfolio, @haejin has been hammering home this point for months.
Ok @haejin says gold is going down to $764 by 2020 so lets sell our cryptos and buy gold ;)
Let's sell 25% portfolio of cryptos and buy gold :-)
If you don´t get it then you don´t get it. But I advise you to go watch some of the many documentaries about broke-ass-brokers who has lost it all.
They always say the same things;- Why did I not take profits while profits were made?
- Why was I so greedy that i gambled it all?
- No-one saw the crash coming, and in one day I lost it all...
There are lessons to be learnt from history, and those who do not learn are bound to repeat those lessons.
All the hate for @haejin just died because ppl realized that this isn't facebook and that they can't control the system! decentralization for the win!
I have the feeling that world is changing with crypto and we are at a big turn in the history. Can't wait to see what is going to happen next!
i think it is more that there was an agreement because the discord upset the community and did the whole steem platform no good - transparent how easily the reward system was/is manipulated
It costs about 1,200-1,300 to get it out of the ground. Sure it could dip a little lower for a short moment. But 764 seems a bit low...
Maybe there will be massive sells of what is already mined for wathever reason.
Interesting to see analysis of commodities! You're a beast!
I did an analysis on Xverge, assume it's pretty similar to yours but different targets perhaps:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@benkalashnikov/xverge-xvg-analysis-165-potential-profit
@haejin - I was wondering when you would expand your TA for us. If you ever have time, I'd love to hear your thoughts on HIVE (Hive Blockchain on TSX). It's a major crypto miner and I'm curious to see if it will soon follow the recent crypto gains.
Thanks sir!
I wrote a post on HIVE Blockchain last month but it would be interesting to see the technical analysis. Check it out:
https://steemit.com/investing/@morseke1/an-incredible-investment-with-maximum-leverage-to-blockchain-growth
@morseke1 - Great writeup! Very in depth! The great news is that the locked up shares began selling the same day that HIVE announced this massive expansion so the price stayed pretty stable (allowing us to accumulate a bit more). Wishing you wealth!
Thank you. I'm primed and ready for HIVE to catch up after this long pause.
I made a technical analysis of HVN a week ago, updated yesterday here:
https://steemit.com/haejin/@thedolphin/hvn-btc-targets-still-valid-profits-2400-sat-then-3900
@thedolphin - Hey! Thank for this, I should have been more specific, there is actually a company on the TSX that is named Hive Blockchain under the ticker HIVE :) If you ever find any time to look into it, I'd love to see what your TA shows! Thanks!
Oh, it is? I'm so focused on crypto now, but I found it at Tradingwiev so I gave it a shot in expectation of your like and follow :)
https://steemit.com/money/@thedolphin/hive-blockchain-technologies-ltd
Thanks so much for taking the time to put that together! Greatly appreciated! Im hoping you are right in your TA ;)
Just remember we can't predict in time, only in sentiment of price.
This is surprising but does make sense. People are putting money they would have put have put into gold, into cryptos. Good for us but not so good for
This really correlates with the large move over to Bitcoin...as soon as crypto perma bear Peter Schiff allowed Bitcoin for gold, i knew it would cause this to happen..of course there are other factors, and i like gold, i own some myself, but the waves don't lie