What are Merkel's chances for remaining Chancellor of Germany?

She's held the Chancellery for over a decade, but her refugee policies may dampen Angela Merkel's staying power.

Merkel has a little over a year left before she can start worrying about 2017's autumn election, but already there is speculation about whether she will run - and if she does, whether she would win.

In public broadcaster ARD's "summer interview" with the Chancellor on Sunday, she remained vague about her intentions.

Angela Merkel, photo: DPA

"There is still a lot to do," the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader told the hosts, explaining that her decision on another candidacy would come "in due time".

In the ensuing days the German media has been flooded with speculation as to why Merkel, who announced she would stand again two years in advance of the last election, is being so coy.

Many believe that she lacks the backing of Horst Seehofer, the powerful leader of the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). Seehofer has been outspoken in his opposition towards Merkel’s refugee policies.

German Federal Election 2017

A poll by Bild tabloid on Sunday showed that 42 % of respondents were in favour of another term for Merkel - their poll last November showed 45 % support.

But this is a much more optimistic result for Merkel than a separate survey in May that showed 64 % of Germans wanted her out of office in the next election.

And then there is the big question of, if not Merkel, then who?

On Tuesday 30th August 2016 the leader of the opposition, of all people, complained that Merkel had no real challenger.

"It is a tragedy that Germany is governed by a Chancellor who has caused great damage in many areas, but nevertheless, she will have the best chances to stay in 2017," Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of Die Linke (the Left Party) told DPA.

"It's only because there is no serious and plausible challenger," she added.

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