Analysis of the ISIS weapons trafficking serial number based investigation report released Dec 2017
I read the original source document.
There are numerous articles online claiming false conclusions like the following headline in an article that made it to 5th top post on r/conspiracy. "A new investigation has concluded that 97 percent of the weapons used by the Islamic State were supplied illegally by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia." Which is directly contradicted by the original document which states at least 12% of the weapons used were captured from the Iraq government. Since false headlines are hitting front pages, I took the time to write up an actual analysis by reading the document. This is that analysis.
The purpose of this post is for people curious what is actually appropriate to take away from this investigation. Anything in quotes is the wording from the investigators, anything not is my words.
"The report presents an analysis of more than 40,000 items recovered from IS forces between 2014 and 2017. Many of these items originated in shipments that run into the thousands."
The method of the investigation is to recover a weapon from ISIS, then contact the manufacturer with a serial number. The manufacturer then reveals the party they sold the weapon to when it left the factory, the date of manufacture, and if this sale included a non-transfer agreement. Repeat 10s of thousands of times and compile the data, and the investigation is complete.
The investigation was funded by the European Union and Germany and the investigators make point to note that "The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of Conflict Armament Research and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the positions of the European Union and the German Federal Foreign Office."
In order for the investigation to succeed and arms companies to reveal information, Conflict Armament Research (CAR) made a conscious and firm effort to leave out information that would lead people to believe the arms companies or governments are complicit. "CAR has taken the firmest steps to minimise possible negative outcomes for any of the producing commercial entities and governments listed in this report."
Despite this firm and conscientious effort, the investigators were unable to protect the USA or Saudi Arabia from the evidence that they systematically violated written agreements with Bulgaria, China, Russia, and other nations; as well as international arms trafficking laws to not allow the arms they purchased outside of US government or Saudi control.
The covert U.S. arms program was designed to pressure Assad and prevent extremists from getting an upper hand in the civil war. “We didn’t have a lot of choices at the time,” said Andrew Tabler, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “It was the best way to manage the situation.”
National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden announced that the administration would seek the money [1.5 billion USD] that she said would build on "longstanding efforts" by the United States "to empower the moderate Syrian opposition." as part of a "regional stabilization initiative".
- Hillary Clinton says in a leaked email written on Aug 17, 2014:
At the same time we should return to plans to provide the FSA, or some group of moderate forces, with equipment that will allow them to deal with a weakened ISIL, and stepped up operations against the Syrian regime. This entire effort should be done with a low profile, avoiding the massive traditional military operations that are at best temporary solutions. While this military/para-military operation is moving forward, we need to use our diplomatic and more traditional intelligence assets to bring pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are providing clandestine financial and logistic support to ISIL and other radical Sunni groups in the region.
Every single weapon recovered from IS forces that involved an arms trafficking violation, is comprised of "exclusively Warsaw Pact calibre weapons and ammunition purchased by the United States and Saudi Arabia."
The percent of ISIS weapons that were only possible because of USA and Saudi arms trafficking violations is unspecified in the article, and the actual number could be anywhere from ~18% if every single ISIS-owned weapon originally purchased by USA and Saudis was brand new, and up to 85% if every single weapon that ISIS obtained without capturing from their enemies was originally purchased by USA and Saudis which would require nearly all weapons purchased to manufactured before the war began.
Breaking international arms trafficking laws was the only way the USA and Saudis were able to supply the moderate rebel groups with the 7.62 and 12.7 chambered guns they required because virtually no nation will sell these weapons without a non-retransfer agreement. An exception is an instance where an undisclosed "EU member state" supplied "substantial quantities" of weapons to the United States without signing a no-retransfer agreement. Bulgaria and Romania were the only 2 EU member states that had guns created after the year 2000 end up in ISIS hands, so I speculate it is one of these 2 member states.
Serial numbers being in close sequence from groups numbering in the hundreds comprised almost half of all weapons discovered, indicating that the weapons were manufactured in eastern block nations, sent to USA and Saudis, and either through middlemen or directly to ISIS without ever being distributed and separated. In multiple cases the time from factory line to ISIS soldier was under 2 months.
A little over half of the weapons discovered were manufactured before the cold war ended, and I think it is reasonable to conclude that these weapons are the ones without sequential serial numbers. This is because I find it unlikely that boxes of pre-cold war weapons stayed in their original boxes, only to be opened for use in the Syrian war.
Bulk shipments of weapons were repackaged into "polythene bags". "These activities are evidence of deliberate attempts by parties to conceal their involvement in supplying weapons into the conflicts in Iraq and Syria—despite the fact that neither government is subject to a UN arms embargo."
"Turkish territory is the main—although not exclusive—source of chemical explosive precursors." They were purchased wholesale regularly in large quantities from Turkish companies who had to ramp up production several fold in order to meet the demand during the Syrian war. The investigators note that shipments of this size and regularity to ISIS would have been obvious to these companies.