Statistical Analysis Friday June 22nd

ASCOT 2.30

11/4 Fairyland, Just Wonderful, 7/1 Main Edition,
7/1 Stillwater Cove, 8/1 La Pelosa, 10/1 Angel's Hideaway,
12/1 Chicas Amigas, 16/1 Reponse Exacte, 20/1 Octave,
25/1 Byron Bay, 33/1 Hawayel, 323/1 No More Regrets,
Pretty Pollyanna, 50/1 Jensue, Merry Go Round,
50/1 Nakakande, 66/1 Cotubanama, Satisfying.

The Albany Stakes
2yo Fillies over 6f

Racing Post Ratings

Fairyland 97
Chicas Amigas 94
Main Edition 90
Just Wonderful 85
La Pelosa 84
Angel's Hideaway 83
Octave 82
Byron Bay 80

First thing you do in this race
Chuck out horses with 3 + runs
Horses with 3 runs are 0-31 in this race
Horses with 3 or more runs are 0-55
This does not help much this year

Every past winner
Started under 11/1 last time out
I'd be wary of horses that didn't
As you want a hot prospect in this
I'd want a Racing Post Rating of 75 +

FAIRYLAND tops the Numbers
Her profile has 1 flaw
If you look at past renewals
Horses from Pattern races were 0-34
FAIRYLAND fails that from a Listed race
The standard winner of this race
Is usually unexposed and untested
FAIRYLAND does not fit that pattern

Last years favourite did the same
Came from a Listed race beaten at 2/1
Several short favourites also failed
Having come from a pattern race
Sandova 7/4 (2013) Teoplane 5/4 (2011)
The 2009 favourite (11/8) also fails it too
I hope this statistic will continue this year

Things do change though
And she has the best numbers

Not only that
She's the best 2yo filly in the country
She has lovely breeding stats as well

CHICAS AMIGA is rejected
She looks badly drawn to me

Don't want too Radical a draw
Reponse Exacte is a foreign raider
Having a 6 day absence is too unorthodox

STILLWATER COVE is an American raider
With a 75 day absence
Not being a proven stayer as well
There are safer options than her
Byron Bay is probably best avoided

ANGEL'S HIDEWAY ran 15 days ago
Horses that ran within 20 days
With 2 or more runs struggled
Those with 2 runs like him were 0-26
ANGEL'S HIDEWAY isn't like a winner

LA PELOSA has 1 run 1 win
Her profile is perfectly fine
She has a good draw as well
Lots to like from a top stable
What is against her is the sire

Horses sired by Dandy Man
Running in pattern races
Over 6 furlongs and more
Have a 0-52 record so far
LA PELOSA is the 53rd to try
None have so far won any
LA PELOSA is rejected on this stat

Shortlist

FAIRYLAND

MAIN EDITION

JUST WONDERFUL

MAIN EDITION has stall 15 of 15
Whilst I don't like them drawn widest
7 renewals since the stalls changed

Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 are 0-56
Horses drawn 9 or higher are 7-65
That suggests high draws are better

MAIN EDITION won on her Windsor debut
From a stall that very few have overcome
Signs that she was well above average
But the draw is an issue
And I am drawn to a superior Irish stable

FAIRYLAND each way looks good
There are 4 places with some firms
When the 4th favourite fails a breeding stat
Will be disappointing if she can't at least place

Selection

FAIRYLAND 100/30-7/2

Each Way

MARKET RASEN 2.45

7/4 Peculiar Places, 3/1 King Vince,
5/1 Mythical Legend, 7/1 Pantomime, St Andrews,
14/1 Tankerton Boy, 20/1 Siannes Star,
25/1 Cavalry Scout.

Maiden Hurdle over 2m 7f

Some poor horses here
I played around with this race
In the end it was about the numbers

PECULIAR PLACES on his last 2 runs
Has Racing Post Hurdle Ratings of 121 117
Not only is that comfortably the best numbers
I wonder if some of these will ever do that
Plenty of things we don't know about
Horses and trainer reliability one of those
But I could only suggest the favourite
As his numbers give him a clear edge

Selection

PECULIAR PLACES 11/10

Win Bet

ASCOT 3.05

11/4 Delano Roosevelt, 4/1 Rostropovich,
9/2 Raa Atoll, 11/2 Old Persian, 8/1 Giuseppe Garibaldi,
9/1 Wells Farhh Go, 14/1 Elector, 16/1 Highbrow,
33/1 Alternative Fact.

King Edward VII Stakes
12f Group race for 3 year olds

Aidan O'Brien runs 3

Delano Roosevelt
Rostropovich
Giuseppe Garibaldi

Hasn't been a race to trust Aidan
His overall record in this is just 1-18
He did win this race back in 2004
That's the only Irish winner in 40 years

DELANO ROOSEVELT ran in the Derby
The only horse doing that this year
And if you look at winners from the Derby
Most ran closer to the winner than he got
DELANO ROOSEVELT is still hard to rule out
But hasn't really set a high standard

Go back to 2004
The last time Aidan O'Brien won this race
Since then we have had 12 King Edwards

None of the previous 12 winners
Raced in Group races as 2 year olds

The last 12 winners
Were all kept in lower grades as 2yo's

DELANO ROOSEVELT does not fit that
He had Group race form as a 2 year old

ROSTROPOVICH has the same problem
He was running in Group 1's last year
Like so many of Aidan O'Briens horses
Perhaps this is why he rarely wins this
Perhaps he runs the wrong type of horse
Who have already played their hand
Vulnerable to late developing improvers

GIUSEPPE GARIBALDI from the same yard
Unsurprisingly has the same problem
GIUSEPPE GARIBALDI just won a 12f race
No past winner had a profile like him

WELLS FARHH GO also fails this angle
He ran in a Group race last season
In his case that wouldn't bother me
As he is much lightly raced horse
Something else worries me with him
Winners with 3 or more career starts
All had at least 2 runs that season
WELLS FARHH GO doesn't have that

ALTERNATIVE FACT also lacks runs
ELECTOR doesn't have the numbers
HIGHBROW didn't quite offer enough

Shortlist

RAA ATOLL
OLD PERSIAN

Horses from Listed Races
Beaten under 2 lengths last time
Running over 10f last time
There was an encouraging 5-21 record

OLD PERSIAN has this profile

RAA ATOLL is a lightly raced improver
He can not be underestimated here
If I look at similar horses
Coming from Non pattern races
Running over 10f
With under 3 career starts
The last winner with this profile
Was Mutafaweq back in 1999
All 13 since then were beaten
Mutafaweq had also achieved more
He has a Racing Post Rating of 111
RAA ATOLL only has a 97 rating
OLD PERSIAN has a safer profile

Selection

OLD PERSIAN 5/1

Each Way

ASCOT 3.40

4/1 Equilateral, 9/2 Sioux Nation, 7/1 Invincible Army,
8/1 Sands Of Mali, 14/1 Eqtidaar, 16/1 Emblazoned, Fleet Review,
16/1 Heartache, Laugh A Minute, 20/1 Cardsharp, Main Desire,
25/1 Enjazaat, Gidu, Hey Jonesy, 25/1 Now You're Talking,
33/1 Speak In Colours, Unfortunately, 33/1 Abel Handy,
33/1 Actress, Roussel, 50/1 Fighting Irish, Stone Of Destiny.

Commonwealth Cup
Group 1 over 6 furlongs
Only 3 past renewals

Racing Post Ratings

116 Fleet Review
115 Sioux Nation - Sands Of Mali - Unfortunately
115 Sioux Nation - Sands Of Mali
114 Sands Of Mali - Invincible Army
112 Invincible Army
111 Invincible Army - Cardsharp
110 Heartache
109 Cardsharp
108 Equilateral - Actress - Hey Jonesy

FLEET REVIEW tops the numbers
But he's been rejected by Ryan Moore
His 116 rating was done as a juvenile
His sires horses often fail to train on
Male 3 year olds sired by War Front
In Group 1 races have a 0-23 record

SANDS OF MALI has good numbers
He is far too risky drawn 22 of 22
I think Richard Fahey is overrated
Not a stable I like in Group 1 races
Richard Fahey is 3-96 in them so far
His runners aged under 4 are 0-52
UNFORTUNATELY didn't look safe
Not racing just the once this year

INVINCIBLE ARMY has a chance
But He may be getting too exposed
He has already had 9 lifetime runs
The 3 past winners had 5-6-7 runs
Few 3 year olds win Group 1 sprints
With as many runs as he has so far
The last to win a Group 1 under 8f
With more than 8 career starts
Was 8 years ago back in 2010
All 40 trying since than have failed
His trainer is not at the top table yet

ACTRESS has the same problem
She is a filly overraced with 12 runs
CARDSHIP has 14 career starts
Just looks too exposed up 3 grades

HEARTACHE doesn't have the numbers
She is only a filly with 1 run this season
Don't see her staying well enough to win

EQUILATERAL has raced 3 times
The 3 past winners had 5-6-7 runs
He's never been anywhere near this class
Has ground to make up on the numbers
Stall 2 may not be much help either
Just wonder if he may get isolated there
But confidence seems very high in him
HEY JONESY looks very beatable
Up in trip and drawn 1 in a huge field

EQTIDAAR could run well
Needs to improve but could do
I opposed him at Newbury last time
Lacked experience in that race
Has 4 runs I'd rather have 5 runs
But I can not rule him out
Stall 3 can't be the best of the draw

SIOUX NATION looks the one to me
Been interested in him for a while
Has some of the best numbers
The Aidan O'Brien number 1
Son of Scat Daddy
Just like stablemate Caravaggio
Who won this race last year
He won the Lacken Stakes last time
As Caravagio did before he won this

Selection

SIOUX NATION 4/1

Each Way

ASCOT 4.20

7/2 Alpha Centauri, Clemmie, 9/2 Billesdon Brook,
10/1 Coeur De Beaute, 12/1 Capla Temptress,
12/1 Veracious, 14/1 Anna Nerium, Teppal, Threading,
25/1 Adorable, Aim Of Artemis, Whitefountainfairy,
100/1 Nkosikazi.

Coronation Stakes
Group for 3yo fillies over 8f

Past winners had the following runs
7 5 7 9 8 5 5 8 3 5

Only 1 winner in the last 10 renewals
Won with under 5 career starts
That winner was Ghanaati in 2009
He won the English 1000 Guineas
He had a Racing Post Rating of 115

VERACIOUS only has 2 runs
First time out she looks inexperienced

TEPPAL only has 3 career starts
She has won a French Guineas
I'd be a bit concerned about her stamina
She doesn't offer enough with 3 runs
NKOSIKAZI is too inexperienced

WHITEFOUNTAINFAIRY is outclassed
AIM OF ARTEMIS has just 3 career runs
Took a Guineas winner to overcome that
She's never been anywhere near that class
ADORABLE also has 3 career starts
Her best Racing Post Rating is only 102

Past winners Racing Post Rating
119 113 114 113 112 111 111 107 115 113
The worst recent winner of this race
Had a Racing Post Rating of 107
9 of the last 10 had ratings of 111 +

CARLA TEMPTRESS was 4th in France
Career best Racing Post Rating of 106
Thats less than all past winners managed
She also has just 1 run this season as well
That makes me question her class/fitness

ANNA NERIUM needs a career best
She looks the Richard Hannon 2nd string
Also worries me she is a small horse
Probably not progressive enough

THREADING has 5 runs 2 this year
Looked smart last year but regressed
It took a drop in class last time to win
She won a very small field listed race
She is now back in the big time
Her sire Exceed And Excel puts me off
His 8f + Group race runners are 1-44
3 year olds by this sire over 8f +
Running in Group races are 0-23
On a track like this may not get home

CLEMMIE has the ability to win this
She broke my heart in the Spring
This year she only has 1 prep race
Horses have won with 1 run before
Statistically it is not a major problem
But her comeback run left me cold
Even allowing for her lack of fitness
She faces the English Guineas winner
She faces the Irish Guineas winner
On the back of one well beaten run
May be wrong but I am a sceptic
And Stall 1 looks a difficult draw too

ALPHA CENTAURI has a good profile
She won the Irish 1000 Guineas
Last years winner did the same thing

BILLESDON BROOK is a classic winner
She won the English 1000 Guineas
What worries me about her profile
BILLESDON BROOK has 10 runs
Past winners had 7 5 7 9 8 5 5 8 3 5
She'd be the most exposed winner
She was only 66/1 at Newmarket too

COEUR DE BEAUTE is from France
She was 2nd in the French Guineas
The 2016-2016 winners came from that race
She has 8 runs and 2 this season
Same profile as the 2013 winner of this
She did well to be second in France
She did that from the worst draw
There is a lot to like about her chance
Drawn a bit high I like her at the price
But she's 7lbs + improvement to find

Selection

£6 Win Bet ALPHA CENTAURI 7/2

£2 Each Way COEUR DE BEAUTE 11/1