Age Of Abundance: The Basic Are Going To Be Very Inexpensive
One of my passion is following the trends in technology and how they are going to shape how we live down the road. This is something I made a study the last 8 years or so to the point it is an obsession. A payoff of this is that I am now seeing technologies emerging that were only in the planning or testing stage just a few years ago.
We are in a time of transition when more of our daily lives is becoming digital. This will only increase as we see the expansion of the Internet to include more devices connected. The Internet of Things is radically going to revolution how we interact with our devices and, believe it or not, how they interact with each other.
As things become digitized, they fall under the Laws of Informational Technology. For those who are unaware, this basically is made up of processing, storage, and software. This is a crucial point for people to understand since it has relevance to what we are going to be paying for things in the future.
At present these areas have a rate of doubling:
Processing :every two years (50% price decrease)
Storage: every three years (33% price decrease)
Software every six years ( 16% price decrease)
It quickly becomes obvious why things that enter this realm get very inexpensive in a short period of time. The rates of price decreases spread to the entire economy. For this reason, I believe we witnessed Central Banks around the world pumping money like crazy for a decade yet not getting any inflation. The technological pace they were up against is simply too great.
Over the next decade, we are going to see many of the basic necessities of life start decline in price. Peter Diamandis calls this"demonetization". Basically, after something is digitized, it gets very inexpensive.
Take music as an example. 25 years ago, $11 got one a CD with 12 or 14 songs. Now, if you don't want commercials, $10 a months gets you access to 30 million songs on Pandora.
Remember when cell phones were something for the wealthy? During the same period as I just mentioned, we saw phones going for a thousand dollars with rates of $1.50 per minute. Today, phones are simply a minor cost and most plans have unlimited voice and text (and some data).
The automotive industry received a ton of press the last few years with the impending introduction of wide scale electric cars followed by autonomous capabilities. I recall reading in 2014 how they were projecting that there would be an autonomous prototype available by 2025. That estimate was crushed since Waymo already has autonomous vehicles in testing on the streets of an area of Phoenix.
This is just an example of the pace that technology is advancing ahead.
We are rapidly heading for the Age of Abundance. Most of my regular readers know where I stand on cryptocurrencies, STEEM in particular. The Internet came to money. Just like music is abundant, so is information, communication, and video. This medium takes anything digital and replicates it rather inexpensively. Think if how many pictures you see on a daily basis that were taken and uploaded by people. There was a time, not too long ago, where 24 pictures cost $8 to get developed.
The Age of Abundance is going to reverse what we experienced the last 100 years.
During that period, we saw the price of goods and services increase while the value of money decreased. This is backwards since we did make great technological advancement during that time. However, now we are seeing the opposite.
Cryptocurrency goes up in value (at least compared to fiat) while our basic necessities are going to be coming down. Technology, or more specifically, that under the Laws of IT, is penetrating every area of life. This is going to result in a cost reduction.
Today, housing, medical, and transportation are probably the three biggest expenses a household has. For some, we can add education to the mix. All four of these areas are presently seeing massive digitization which will reduce the prices. Think of each of these industries experiencing what the cell phone and computer industries went through.
What is happening in each field is too cumbersome to include in this post. However, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of different projects which will achieve the end I am referring to.
The housing market is starting to see strides made in Contour Manufacturing (3D printing). There have been a number of projects around the world which were already 3D printed. This will only increase as the equipment gets better and less expensive. Nevertheless, even today, full size homes are printed in 10-24 hours.
Medical is moving from reactive to preventative. Again, there are too many things taking place to list but there are a number of large firms along with startups all working on personal health monitoring devices. AI is making significant headway in this marketplace already outpacing doctors at certain things. There will come a time when you will not let a human operate on you since the robotics will be much better. Seriously, would you rather have a doctor who did 4 operations the previous week or a software network that did 3,000 of them around the country in the same period of time. Machine learning via sharing with each other is really exploding.
Transportation costs are expected to come down 90% by 2025. This is due to the emergence of autonomous technology. People pay $400-$700 a month to have a car that sits 95% of the time. Ride sharing is going to explode and the price of a trip will drop to near nothing once the cost of labor is removed.
This are just a few examples of what is going to happen over the next decade. We are seeing similar results in the areas of energy (renewables), insurance (big data), water (desalinization), and food (AgTech). Of course, most on here are aware of the impact cryptocurrencies and blockchain are having on the cost of money transfers.
If we go out past 10 years, we are going to see nanotechnology start to move to the forefront and this is where we will see the Star Trek replicator emerge. At that point, people are going to make whatever they want for just the cost of raw materials.
Get ready for a wild ride. Lots of good stuff happening.
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Another awesome article! I remember when 1GB flash drives cost $50. Nowadays you could probably get a 512GB flash drive for the same price. The advancement in technology is increasing exponentially after each passing day. We're very lucky to be living in these exciting times especially after the rise of the internet, smartphones, and now, cryptocurrencies. Looking forward to and very excited about this "Age of Abundance" you reference.
I remember 256MB for about $27.
Yeah I havent looked at what type of memory they have now but I am sure it is a lot....
As for what we saw, I think we havent seen anything yet...there is a lot more to come in the future....and rather quickly compared to the past.
Just bought 32 gigs for less than 10usd but that was at the mall so it was probably expensive.
Nice post but don't you think the technological advancement has made man more lazy?
you all right friends. in Indonesia, bitcoin transactions through banks have been appealed by the central bank. maybe they worry about inflation and raising money..but I don't no more that..thanks@taskmaster4450.
Banks all over the world are cautious about crypto because it's a relative unknown and they have no control over it. In the UK, there have been banks (and I believe some might still be doing so) who close down customers' accounts because they've traded in cryptos - not just blocked a transaction, closed the account.
Thanks friend.
Wow... I hadnt heard that but it doesnt surprise me.
I believe the banks are aware of crypto, that it isnt so much of an unknown but a threat. They know what this can do to them.
Anyone who has a wallet on their phone has a bank....it can send, store, and receive money...that is what 95% of the people use banks for.
Yes, taskmaster. I’ve explained that to many people about crypto.
Crypto is making banks obsolete!
I won't say fully obsolete, but rather unnescesary, leading them from elitist place to competive markets again. Banks would have to provide needed services for affortable price.
Here in Portugal they closed some bank accounts because of that as well.
I hope you're right. That kind of a future would be something good to look forward to in the midst of all the despair we see in the world today. Even in the U.S., most people live paycheck to paycheck and struggle just to survive.
Certainly the internet thus far has been a tremendous source of deflation. Even so, we're seeing inflation in things people need (such as food, housing, medical care) and deflation in things people don't need.
Lower costs in technology and transportation in the near term are very obvious to me. I also think over the medium-long term the bubble in higher education will pop. The Harvards and Yales will always be able to name their price, but private universities in lower tiers are going to be in for a world of hurt as students and their families become increasingly unwilling to pay their exhorbitant costs.
Beyond that, I see the potential you speak of in housing and medical care, but wonder how quickly society will be able to benefit from greater efficiencies and lower costs. Right now there are so many parties enriching themselves at the trough (hospitals, insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, plaintiff's lawyers, doctors, etc.) that I really wonder what it's going to take to bring some sanity to our healthcare system. A hugely disproportionate amount of money in the U.S. is spent on medical care relative to the benefits we receive. That needs to change, but I'm not sure the change will occur before the system implodes due to out-of-control costs.
I hope technology can help bring positive change about.
You are correct on the medical....I agree completely....it is going to be tough.
There are so many large entities with their hands in that pot that moving them out isnt going to be easy. We are going to have to have a major shift in focus to see that happen. Fortunately, the system is gaining recognition for being too expensive, a path that cannot be sustained.
How quickly? I do think it will move very fast....5 years before we start to see any impact is my guess....like turning an oil freighter...takes a long time.
Technology is really moving at a neck-breaking speed. Years back, I was using grinding stone to puree tomatoes but now we have food processor. Years back, there were no computers nor internet but today we can hardly stay away from them. Technology will continue to evolve to serve us better. So anything is possible with technology.
I see this as good news. Government and banks are having a hard time with the decentralization caused by the Internet and cryptocurrency. When everything was centralized they had total control over all facets of the economy.
Not only this....it stifles innovation. A centralized system is not as innovative as a decentralized system. That is why I do not believe the social media entities stand a chance against a blockchain like this. You have over 50K daily users, many whom are programmers, creating all kinds of things on here without anyone to say no that wont work.
If someone wants to try something, they are free to throw it on the blockchain. The determining factor is whether people use it or not.
Fantastic article.
The future is looking brighter and brighter on many fronts. You brought up many things that are about to explode. Personally I cannot wait until we do get to that star trek faze and nanotechnology. No stopping us then.
Yes that one is a bit further off...perhaps 20-30 years....but the other stuff should all happen by 2030.
Which sounds like a long way off, but the older I get, the faster 12 years goes by.
We actually already have nanotechnology. I spent my final year of Architecture school in a Special Topics Nanorobitics course building Soft Robot that worked via pneumatics (air) while other Ferro-Magnetism and Audrino circuit boards. Stuff straight out the comics and sci fi shows.
The Future is Now.
(3Ds Max Concept --- PrePneucatic bubble but represention of directions when connect to Audrinos)
That Studio changed my perspective on our current state of global technology. It taught me we have an abundance of technologies at our disposal now. We just have to build upon and combine the technologies in new innovative ways.
This is the Blockchain. This is Steem.
Brighter? Hm. What about unemployment..
The more steemit get known and as you work your way up you won't have to even worry about unemployment
Let's hope so!
Some interesting points indeed. I think that rather than talking about abundance, a better way of looking at it, is that cryptocurrencies will see in a large-scale re-distribution of wealth.
I don't think, certainly not in recent history, but maybe ever, has somthing happened to allow the poorest people to become wealthy, whilst making some of the wealthiest (who doggedly cling to what made them rich in the first place) relatively poor.
Even if you look at Steemit, right now. As a new user I see people who've been here for longer than me making huge amounts of money. And I know that, as I start to post my own content, it'll be hard to begin with, and I'll see very little in return. But, a few years down the line, and I'll be seen as an early adoptor, and be getting a lot more out of the platform than a new user. It's all relative.
Cryptocurrencies are a huge opportunity, but the sooner you make an investment (and on Steemit, that could be money, time, or both), and the bigger that investment is, the more upside you have.
In the coming years, some of the richest people on the planet will be those who invested early in cryptocurrencies. And whilst we're not at the beginning of the ride, you can still jump on today and make huge returns uf you're in for the long-term.
I agree with you about the wealthiest people down the road will be those who got into crypto early!
I just put pocket change into crypto the last couple years. The returns have been through the roof! I only wish I had it in me to invest more aggressively! I would have retired by now before the age of 40!
You got in before me. I invested about $100 in November 17 because I wanted to do a little trading, learn as I go and make mistakes with a small amount before I'm ready (and can afford) to invest more. I've made a good return on my $100 and learnt a lot of good lessons, and have made mistakes which cost me $20 or $25.
I know this is the best, and most sensible approach long-term, but it's been hard to see huge profits being made all around me whilst I'm playing with peanuts. Still, I'm a wiser investor and better trader moving forward, and this is a long game, not a sprint.
For me, I am a buy and HODL (and readjust my portfolio as time goes by).
Those who can trade and consistently make a profit...my hat is off to them. Personally, I find success, especially in crypto, in getting into quality coins and letting it ride. At present, BTS and STEEM are my two biggest hodlings. I did well with BTC, ETH, and LTC but have lightened up on them a bit....I still have positions but moved it to coins I think have a higher multiple for growth over the next year.
Overall, I think the most important thing is for people to get started acquiring tokens however they can. With STEEM and a few others, we are beginning to see the ability to get tokens for using the blockchain they are on. This is huge. It allows the average person to start amassing a stake without having to put in money.
And as we know, even a small stake can end up being enormous over a couple years in this realm.
That's one of the biggest lessons I've learnt - don't try to trade...invest. You'll rarely beat the market, or a particular coin by jumping in and out - your timing must be exceptional, and your own time cost is high. Better to research (and get past the hype/BS), look for an opportunity to buy on a dip and HODL.
One of my biggest mistakes was to jump in/out of ETH, and the night before it went on its incredible bull run, mid-december, I'd bought at a low and set a sell order at a [what I thought] was a ridiculous high - to try and catch a spike in price). When I got up the next day, I'd sold, but it'd risen about another 10% over that. So I waited for it to come back down, so I could buy in at even a small loss. It kept on rising, and I completely missed the boat. I think I missed out on about 3x-ing my [small] investment, and it hurt like hell.
By the way...thank you so much for all the upvotes you've sent my way. You've really given my faith in the platform and reassurance that I'm going to thrive on the Steem network. Thanks!
Not a problem @m-ssed-t
I am a believer in rewarding those who comment since I think it is central to this platform.
And here is a secret, if you look at the heavy hitters, all of them reward comments. It is only the small ones who do not.
As for ETH, I bought and held until it went to a point where I scaled back. I still have a bit of a position in it and so I am enjoying the run....I ll just let the rest ride.
You will thrive on this network there is no great secret to it...persistence and consistency is the key...and a bit of obsession/addition. LOL
The next phase is what you are starting to see on STEEM. Cryptocurrencies that people can acquire through the utility of the blockchain is the next big move. Instead of the average person having to buy in, which many cannot, the tokens will be given in response to whatever it was designed for.
This is revolutionary and why I believe people will be earning 25-50 different tokens each month in only a couple years. There is that much coming online on decentralized platforms.
Just found your blog thanks to https://steemit.com/@aaronmcheong, and what a great podcast. I am new to steemit and still finding my way around, but I'm certainly glad I found you, and I thank you for the inspiration and insight.
Just thought I would add that adoption program should be called the mentor program good sir. I can't wait to dive deeper into more of your content.